Friday, October 18, 2019

Underwater is back!

Anyone who bought last year is likely underwater now. And I want to take out the likely part, but I don't know everyones circumstance - so I'm hedging my bets. The top was in April of last year and has been declining every since.  At that time houses were selling in 6 days - NO CONTINGENCIES. I blogged about it three times that month.  Here, here and here. This does not bode well for the holiday season.

The reason I bring this up again today is because this Wolf of Wall Street article hit my feed and it basically matches what I have been seeing on the ground. Although my area could even be a bit more severe than these numbers. I will get to that in a minute. This is what he is reporting on his blog:

San Fransisco down 16.2% from May of 2018.

San Mateo down 16.9% from April 2018.

Santa Clara down 15.8 from March 2018.

Alameda (the burbs) down 11.2 from May 2018.

Contra Costa and Sonoma respectively down 6.6 and 6.2 from June 2018.

When I blogged about this the other day I was only looking to see how my old house was faring. I didn't have time to go through the whole MLS. I did today and I have to say it pretty ugly honestly. Here are some examples. No mobile homes in this post. I already talked about those a couple of days ago, so you already know what happening in the low end market. Craziness obvi.

14 houses were worthy of making my holy shit meter. The bloody details as follows.

1130 square foot condo. They first listed it on 11/18 for 570,000. Still on market. Now listed as 479,000.

1860 square foot house.  First listed on 9/17/19 for 899,000. Now at 840,000.  That is about 40 grand in one month.

1754 square foot sure foot house. This one caught my eye because it's new construction built in 2017.   It sold in the summer of 2017 for 752,500. Now being listed for 779,950. That is less than a 25 grand profit in two years if it even goes for that. That's not even enough to cover your selling costs.

1289 square foot house.  Listed on 8/21/19 for 839,000. Still on market now listing for 779,000. a 60 grand hair cut.

1635 square foot condo.  Listed on 8/16/19 for 685,000. Now listed for 645,000.

1440 square foot house. Listed on 8/13/19 for 859,999. Now listed for 819,000.

828 square foot condo. These are arguably the lowest priced housing in my city next to mobile homes. First listed 8/11/19 for 359,888. Now listed for 335,900.

The next one is super painful. Brand new construction.There are two houses on this site being listed. First listed 8/8/19 for 1,449,000. These houses also have granny units in the back. Now being listed for 1,379,000.

This one is the first McMansion to really make the "oh shit" list.  3761 square feet. First listed on 8/6/19 for 1,528,000. Now listed 1,399,000. I'm not really going to do too many of the McMansions because their percentage drop is not as dramatic.

1274 foot condo. First listed on 7/25/19 for 549,000.  Now listed  for 509,000.

2006 square foot house. This one is bloody.  Built in 2016.  Listed on 11/14/18 for 945,000. Still on market.  Now being listed for 847,950.

This place is also fairly new.  Built in 2015. First listed on 7/8/19. for 825,000. Now listing for 789,000.

The last one is completely new construction built in 2019 and there are several in this development but this is by far the worst. 2169 square foot  condo. First listed for 860,000 on 2/9/19. Still on market. Now listing for 828,000.

All this is happening under ultra low interest rates. And clearly something happened in August because a lot of stuff has been sitting since then. I would go as far as to say the housing market has hit sort of a wall.

1 comment:

  1. China; it's banks:
    are underselling silver and gold.
    Trying to get liquidity to prop up their money.