Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Am I the only one who is loving that Conservatives are only women haters this election season rather than gay haters?  It's so refreshing honestly!

Plus, a lot of women suck, so it's kinda a war I can get behind. Oh yes, I said it. I don't know how you men put up with us.

Damned if I didn't call this...

"In a quarterly conference call after the company's earnings, Miller laid out the two biggest underlying reasons for the current shortage in housing supply that is causing the price of houses to soar.

"Land and labor shortages will continue to constrain supply and constrain the ability to quickly respond to growing demand while the mortgage market will continue to constrain purchaser's access to mortgages," said Miller on Tuesday.

As we've noted before, consumer credit has held back potential homeowners, and home builders have faced a serious labor shortage.

Miller, however, does make an interesting distinction. It's not that only home builders are having trouble building houses, but the cost to find somewhere to put them has spiked."

The article goes on to say:

"Between the third quarter of 2011 and the third quarter of 2015, the average value of structures has increased 12.8%, whereas the value of the land the structures are on has jumped 58.6%. " Source.

That is a lot of percent!

I just wrote about this in Housing is about to get melt your face off expensive in the Bay Area. If the economy were to ever take off again, (and I think it will soon) this will cause the kind of sharp inflation that will bring out the pitchforks. Building has never been this depressed for this long. As I've said a million times - the normal cycle is about three years. This cycle is almost 2 times that. About eight years.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Am I going to have to wear a patch to get through this sector?

Now that Oculus is shipping you are probably going to see me write a lot more about this sector. There are a lot of sectors I sit out because I think they are stupid. Not this one. I love gaming.

There is a small catch though. I get motion sickness from Oculus. And I'm trying to figure out a work around because it's literally the only place I experience this. Hell, I get a little queasy just thinking about going to the confs with VR in them.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out because I'm apparently not the only one. I think that is part of the reason 3D didn't take off. Some people got queasy. I didn't, but Mr S. did. The glasses were the other reason. And now that I think about it - I still win in regards to my premise that people just don't like to wear glasses. When Google glass came out I looked crazy, but it still seems to hold that people don't really like wearing glasses. We will see how that feathers out to VR glasses.

These people are just batshit crazy.

Now I've heard everything!

"Oil watchers are eyeing a potential freeze by producers as the next catalyst for the commodity, but one oil bear says crude's biggest obstacle is already here.

"I think Uber is a threat to oil for the simple reason that millennials have embraced it dramatically," Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, told CNBC's "Fast Money" traders on Monday. "The millennials are saying 'I really don't need an automobile." Source.

Shut the fuck up. Last year we hit record auto sales. (outside of two crazy spikes) Here is a longer term chart. The cab industry has never caved oil prices. These people are just making shit up to hear themselves speak.

First Millennials weren't going to buy houses. Then they weren't going to buy cars. Once this generation realizes the "sharing" economy is really the "renting" economy their patterns will change. That would be like saying the 2 new BART stations the Bay Area is getting is a threat to oil.

Why doesn't he freak out about telecommuting? That's a threat to oil isn't it? Said in the most sarcastic way.

Monday, March 28, 2016

California is back.

I think the grass is smothering the other wild flowers because those haven't been as spectacular this year. But the poppies almost vanished last year so it's nice to see them again.

Who in their wildest dreams would have thought we would get enough rain in one winter to make all that freaking out about us dying - stop. Even I thought it would take a couple-a years. Most of the reservoirs are at normal for this time of year. I hope that means a good growing year for California as the drought really put a strain on food inflation last year. It will take a few years for the grazing stock to recover, but I think we can grow stuff again.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

She does not approve.

I'd give  more holiday photos, but when I try to dress her up she goes completely aggro. This was one of the few shots I got before she was going to rip me to shreds. Attacking herself was option two as she thought it was something trying to eat her. Or whatever crazy thoughts bunnies have.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Oh - how embarassing. Honestly.

I guess the geriatric club was at the car show this weekend. It just kills the whole cool of the car. In your head you are like that car goes 200 MPH. but he probably only drives it slow in the driveway.

I'm sure in no way are these people gaming the system. Said in the most sarcastic way.

Friday, March 25, 2016

Thursday, March 24, 2016

You mad bruh?

I don't care who you vote for - I am just really enjoying that everyone but everyone is mad at each other. I guess that's the evil in me coming out. These candidates could cut of a leg and start beating each other with it and it wouldn't be too far for me. And the histrionics of the establishment just makes me laugh like a little girl. I almost enjoy the repubs melting down more than anything going on with the dems right now.

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Housing is about to get melt your face off expensive in the Bay Area.

I haven't really talked about real estate lately because since they changed the rules in October the data has been really noisy. I've been waiting for a few months to see how things shook out. However this week a lot of bad news came out and I think people are misinterpreting the data and this is why.

If you drive anywhere in Silicon Valley these days you would believe we are in a building boom. Even when I was down in San Mateo this weekend they were putting new housing up. I bring this up because San Mateo is built on the Bay, so it doesn't have a lot of buildable land. I haven't been to the city lately(SF), but virtually everywhere else has projects going up. Or have gone up in the last year. Even in my burb where every piece of buildable land near downtown was snapped up perhaps a year and a half ago. An old car lot now has a mini complex of 20 units in my town.

That is how desperate builders are for land. You could see this at least a year ago because all these new developments in the Valley were being put up on shit land. Like next to the railroad tracks. Cute places, but your new neighbor is a train. Normally this would have alarmed me because visually it looks like this is going to bring prices down by a lot. However, building has never been this depressed for this long. Normally the trend is three years. This trend is now 8 years long.

I grew up in Santa Clara and Sunnyvale ad I've never really seen this much activity the whole time I've been alive. Usually its a more gradual sort of thing. I wasn't born here, but at this point I'm the closest thing to a native.

Anyway. I have been wholly shocked by how fast these new developments have filled up. And My town had quite a few of them. One of them was so popular they sold out and started holding an auction for their next set of houses this year. Yeah, it was a shock to us all.

And this is where the problem begins. All the low hanging land is now gone. It will be very expensive to find suitable land from here on out causing housing to be more  expensive. I think this is also what is causing the new housing data to look weak right now. A lot of of these projects are almost built out, so sales are going to look weak. You can't sell what you haven't built. They can't sell starter houses because land is so expensive.

The other thing that is bothering me is that people who write about real estate don't really seem to understand what happened during the recession to housing, Read: Why finding a starter home is harder than ever.

"Why the inventory shortage? Investors bought many foreclosed homes that were likely starter homes during the recession and turned them into rentals, thus keeping them off the sales market, McLaughlin said. In addition, a large share of lower-priced homes are still underwater compared with premium homes, which Trulia defines as the upper third of the market, he added.”These (underwater) homeowners are unlikely to sell and take a loss,” he said."

This is not exactly what happened.  What did happen was that everyone was tossed out of their homes and everyone moved into the low end market because it was all they could afford, or all they could qualify for. This has compressed the low and and high end markets. This has actually put a huge strain on the low end market which is not so low end any more. I don't even think they have it right when they claim that lower prices homes are still the ones underwater. Low end homes have appreciated roughly 100% since the depths of the crash everywhere I look. And logically who do you think has a better chance of toughing out out for 10 years? The low end market, or the high end market?

All I know if that if we even get a hint of inflation nobody is going to move because they have super low rates now. This market is going to be so stuck it's going to melt your face off.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Monday, March 21, 2016

It's funny to see all the people who lost us the 2012 election screaming about how Trump is going to ruin this country. They could be right - but they have no room to throw stones at glass houses.


You hear that people? Said in the most sarcastic way.  This article goes on to say...

"Meanwhile, demand is expected to increase. The International Energy Agency's latest forecast predicts that global oil demand will grow by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2016."

It's useful to know that Cushing is at 67,491 thousand barrels.  Here. Even if we somehow had a draw of 1.6 million barrels every single month, that would only stick us back to how much oil we had in 2013. That means not one single build in the next year.

I mean, you can see from the chart - that seems unlikely because we haven't even started to take a leg down. Granted, it's only been a few months since the dollar has weakened. But the last time the dollar took a leg down we did start getting some draws. But as you can see, so far the same thing isn't happening yet. Dollar chart.

I'm guessing this is because Brazil is caved. So is Japan, and China. The U.K. is in deflation. We are barely eeking out any growth. Canada might feel a little better right now, but there really aren't any big nations that are doing very well.

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Predator bike @ Goodguys.

He's batman.

The lighting kinda sucks on this, but I was pulling into a parking lot and I could see they were about ready to leave.

So I stopped right in front of them and asked if I could take a picture. They said yes, so I took one shot because I didn't want to hold them up. It was a nice touch that a light ray made the batman logo show up. Because I didn't see it in real life. I didn't notice it until I unpacked the pictures.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Strangely - I want to do the opposite of whatever Romney wants me to.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

That has to burn like the surface of the sun.

If you wanna know why people are angry....

Today I finally got up the guts to ask my buddy about his mortgage reset. Mine was in two weeks. So I know when this guy is whole the market is almost recovered.

I was internally psyched for him because I knew he had been paying 7% this whole time. So I figured his reset would cause him to be at market rate. I haven't looked today, but somewhere around 3.62ish range.

The news was very bad indeed.

So - his reset happened in February, but his reset didn't take him into the 3s. He is now locked in at 7%!!! This is 10 years after the recession. Now he's selling his place. His mortgage went up 1800. bucks. Now I have to rethink what might happened with the rest of the group. I think 9% or something.

This guy, I feel bad for him. All he was trying to do was start a new business. He built a new building, so he had to take a loan out on his house. I guess he chose the interest only option, which means he still doesn't have enough equity to be refi'd. Which sucks. It's the riskiest of all loans. But he might, as I did when I took out my reset loan, think - 10 years is a looong time. Anything that goes bad will be better by then. Seriously. You never knew recessions could last this long. Normally they are about three years.

That guy worked his ass off to save that house. We've talked about it many times. Since he's self employed the banks are just harsh. That it why people are fighting mad. Google it@

Most boring sector of all time.

Internet of Things. I was pretty relieved when the fitbit wave finally ran it's course. But the Valley has replaced it with something even more boring. It's almost like we are out of ideas and someone said hey - I know, lets connect light bulbs to the internet. Genius!

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

How can this be?

Low gas prices drag down US retail sales in February .

Everyone insisted that lower gas prices would cause people to spend, spend, spend. I insisted they were wrong because during the recession oil got to 35 bucks a barrel and it didn't do shit for the economy. Here. Instead low oil prices caused retail sales to sink -.04% in January. January of all months! I would guess we are looking at a nice revision to February's data if January was that bad.

"WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. retail sales slipped last month, pulled down by sharply lower gas prices, and Americans spent much less in January than previously estimated. The figures suggest that consumers remain cautious about spending despite steady hiring.

Retail sales fell 0.1 percent in February, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Excluding the volatile gas and auto categories, sales rose 0.3 percent. Overall sales were revised sharply lower in January, from a 0.2 percent gain to a drop of 0.4 percent.

Americans' reluctance to open their wallets could hold back growth in the first three months of this year. Economists had hoped that solid hiring and lower gas prices would entice consumers to spend more, yet Americans seem to be pocketing much of the savings from cheaper gas."

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Lotus in the wild.

I think it was an Evora. I thought about chasing it because Telsa has just opened a lot or a service center right there. So - the chase might not have been long. But honestly - I could spend all day chasing cars. A Lotus isn't chase worthy, mostly. This one had a carbon fiber top though.

Monday, March 14, 2016

It's weird Romney is campaigning for Kasich.

Since Kasich basically lost the election for Romney in the 2012 election turning the usually Conservative State Democrat over SB5. This is what the teamsters said back in 2012. They were pretty pissed at the time.

"John Kasich may be singlehandedly losing the battleground state of Ohio for Mitt Romney.
For months, the Ohio governor seemed to be hiding in the shadows. He tried and failed to destroy collective bargaining rights for government workers (you all remember the stunning defeat of SB5, right?)

We didn't hear much from Kasich for a while. But now he's campaigning for Mitt Romney -- and he's not doing him any favors.

Romney already has trouble with women voters. Kasich makes it worse by saying political spouses are home doing the laundry.  And then there's his tepid endorsement of Romney, as reported by Daily Kos: " Source - With friends like Kasich Romney Doesnt Need Enemies.

Usually I don't follow Ohio politics, but I'm married to a Buckeye - so I was pretty pissed his people voted for Obama. Not that my people (California) did any better. But then, my State is full of tards. Can you expect anything less from us?

Dear birds - quit trying to commit suicide.

There is something about my house that causes birds to run into the windows on the backside of the house will some regularity. Here. I used to get somewhat panicked because I don't want the little critters to suffer. I don't know if I should take them to a vet, or put the little buggers out of their misery. But other than rolling them over and making sure they are out of the sun - I basically opt for natures way.

Normally I get the perfect imprint of their face hitting the window. But today was pretty spectacular. Legs outstretched. It looks like a frog hit it! You can see it's feet perfectly. I thought he was a gonner for sure this time. But I rolled him over, and after a few times of checking on him he freaked enough to fly a couple of feet. He's still out there right now sleeping of his window hangover.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Refis' are about to collapse. And that's a good thing.

Back in the housing crisis people lost their houses because they had a resetting mortgage. Many with poor credit got taken out in the first few years. Those with good credit could get a 10 year reset. At the time - you could not buy a house without a resetting mortgage.

I know because I was one of those people. And my reset was 4/1/2016. I got refi'd two years ago. But there are still a bunch of people underwater. And apparently the people who write about real estate don't understand why they aren't even trying to refi. I do understand.

People don't talk about it much anymore, but I think it's people in the middle market who are still underwater. Everyone pushed into the low end of the market making those houses rise in value markedly. The high end has also enjoyed good gains, but those in the middle - like my house have almost been stuck in time. My rental is up about 50%, but my house I probably only have like 20 grand in equity after 10 years.

I was close to the tail end of resets. Meaning most of these are going to be happening over the next year or so. I know one of these guys. I haven't asked in a handful of months now because as things recover it gets more and more uncomfortable. I've talked about him may times over the years because he was paying 7% the whole time.

If I were him I'd be pretty bitter. I was paying 6% up until two years ago and I was super bitter. Every deadbeat got refi'd before that guy who obviously was responsible because he still has all his shit.

At any rate, those resets are starting really soon, and that guy will enjoy a rate more in the 3.62 range. not 7% like he'd been paying. I bet he's not the only one. Why would he rush to refi right now?

Tuesday, March 08, 2016

I never thought I'd see a epic freak out from both the Republican and Democrat party at the same time.

I'd vote for Trump just to see them all have a mental break down. I'm sure I'm going to hate it if he wins - but there is a part of me that smiles inside and thinks - Obama didn't manage to fundamentally change us after all.

It's never going to stop being 2009.

Stunning today that the market is shrugging off the most horrible data from China last night. You'd almost never know it happened browsing the news this morning. Worst data since 2009. Instead I see articles mocking how two weeks ago it looked like the world was ending. Now? Just fine.

China's Feb. exports to key trading partners:

South Korea -19.2%
E.U. -19.8%
Japan -20.1%
U.S. -23.1%
ASEAN -33.4%
Brazil -56.7%

That is a lot of percent! But the US is an island. This will never affect us. Said in the most sarcastic way.

Update - I also find it fascinating how this is being covered. Like this article. Worst data since 2009. But just ignore it because there was a holiday. I guess no holiday in 2010,11,12,13,14,or 15.

Monday, March 07, 2016

Hitler Badger don't care.

I was calling Trump President Honey Badger, but now I may just call him Hitler Badger because everyone on earth has started calling him that.

I've almost blogged this topic many times, but today after Louis C.K. made his open letter to the world I think I'd had enough. And I like Louis C.K!

The balls these people have. A couple of months ago even the twitter feed of the Free Syrian Army was calling him Hitler right next to tweets of the shit that is going on in Syria. Dead babies. Hitler style starvation. You can't even make this crap up.

Friday, March 04, 2016

For all the "incubaters" in Silicon Valley - there is a whole lot of nothing coming out. I can't believe how much time I waste for nothing. Somebody better come up with some good ideas soon or the Valley is going to be in serious trouble.

Thursday, March 03, 2016

I guess Romney hasn't figured out yet that he is everything we hate about the Republican party. We should all be very happy he didn't win. The only difference between him and Obama was Romney wanted you to work. Otherwise - they are the same candidate. Big government. big spending. He'd have made Romneycare work just well enough that we would never get rid of it.

Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Sometimes when too much stuff goes on I just get locked up. I can't get any of it out. Sorry for the lack of posts.