It's been more than a handful of years since we've gotten so much snow on the mountain. Usually this is the kind of thing that you only see right when you get up because it melts pretty fast. But it must have been blizzarding up there because so far the snow has lasted all day.
Apparently my deck has the worst possible view but I didn't have my truck today so I could't pull off the roads willy nilly and take pictures. It looks like the snow line got pretty low. If it weren't during the week you'd be getting snowman pictures right now because I would have driven up there.
Two weeks ago it hadn't even gotten cold enough to kill my tomato plants from last year. So I quickly took about a half dozen cuttings and put them in water. In a normal year you could never over winter them that long because they would get too leggy.
Sometimes my ADD grinds my brain to a halt. There are tons of words in there - I just have a hard time getting them out and I just kinda shut down.
So - basically I get a crazy kind of writers block. And after it gets to about three days it becomes hard to blog. Nothing seems worth being interesting enough to be "the thing" that breaks the blockade.
They are pounding the "technology is going to destroy all of our jobs" drum again. And they are doing it in the creepiest possible way. I guess they don't really have anything to write about today so they are churning out these articles again.
*U.S. workers who make less than $50,000 per year should get a government stipend of $500 per month, says Chris Hughes.
*"As long as you're working for your country, your country takes care of you," says Hughes, an advocate for a basic income. (emphasis mine) *The wealthy 1 percent should pay for the program, he says.
--
Soooooooo.... these guys aren't really just giving this money away? People will somehow have to work for the government? Good to know! This is some communism level shit.
I will believe that A.I. and robots are a real threat when the real world can get the simple stuff right. Like automatic toilets or sinks. We were all on the automatic toilet bandwagon. Right? And now I've noticed tons of places have started ripping them out and replacing them with old toilets. And I've grown so accustomed to the automatic ones that I don't want to touch the handles now. So frankly, I just kick them with my foot. I'm sure that makes me look like some sort of asshole but it's the truth.
Just because a robot or A.I. ~can~ take a job, doesn't mean it will do so well enough to replace old timey stuff.
I guess Zuck is sort of looking like a bag of shit right now so they are bringing in new blood to keep this meme going.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Spent the day putting up Christmas lights because we are getting our first hard freeze. I'm sure the neighbors are like - what the hell - that's more lights than they put up for Christmas.
Now next year I'm going to have to decorate my bougainvillea.
I think the Sacramento Auto show is about the most meh thing ever...... BUT - it's also the only place you can see people bring their - will shake a car apart type audio systems. And that part I love to death. I decided to sit in one of these things today and the sound does crazy things to your body. It's like being in the front row of the loudest concert you've ever been at X10. All of the cars have broken windows and crap. It just brings out my tard laugh.
Lets see how long youtube lets me keep this up because it probably has copyrighted music in it.
I'm not sure what you are going to get this weekend. I have a couple of projects going and they are fighting me the whole way. So - maybe you get nothing and be happy if something turns up.
I can't quote this article because I've already used up my free access, but let me summarize it for you. With a little color added from the news segment they did on it last night. You ready?
They claim they are going to do an ICO that somehow is going to be totally stable unlike bitcoin. Somehow it will not fluctuate. You don't make any money off of these coins, (which I guess is why they don't fluctuate) but they are backed by government bonds. And mostly it's going to go to the homeless. No really. They propose giving the homeless these tokens or coins or whatever to spend at stores in their city. And I'm not sure what the city gets out of this. But I want them to do it so badly!
I don't think I've seen rain since Vegas. So I'm not sure how long things are going to stay green. But for right now things are getting pretty. The hardware stores were packed today because it feels like summer. I had to get supplies for a project I'm working on and the parking lots were full.
This box truck has been catching my attention for a few months. It's somewhat perplexing because who abandons something like this? It has to still have ~some~ value.... right? The city came though and tagged it up, so I assume it's not stolen. But it hasn't been registered since 2015.
And what's even weirder is that no one has tagged it yet. Plus I just want to know... what's in the boxxxxxx. This box truck hasn't moved in months. It's just sitting around in a shopping center parking lot.
The banks always front-run the Fed. 4.25% has been the magic line in the sand for a decade. We are now 4.35-ish. As a matter of a fact - usually by the time the Fed gets in there and raises, the banks have already torched the market. And the increase by the Fed actually starts making rates go down.
This pattern has played out over and over and over and over and over.........
I think what is happening in the market is the result of the freakout we were suppose to have, but never finished.
2008/9/10 People were losing their minds over all the money being printed. Then..... we just got used to it because none of that money ever entered the stream. Obamacare and it's reserves tied up so much capital, that it never caused inflation. And now..... all that money is floating out there.
All the money used to recapitalize the banks that they could never lend because the market was too weak. I used to say it was all buried in someones back yard. And now....I'd be selling shovels because that money is going to see the light of day.
This potentially could get interesting. Said in the most sarcastic way.
"The City of Berkeley, one of the epicenters of liberal California, is considering a turn to cryptocurrency to reduce its reliance on federal funding in the Trump administration.
Berkeley would become the first city in the US to hold an initial coin offering (ICO) — a type of crowdfunding campaign that's become popular in the past year. The city would raise funds by selling digital assets called "tokens" that are backed by municipal bonds, a type of security issued by the local government. Buyers might spend these tokens at shops and restaurants or even pay rent at apartment rentals that participate in Berkeley's cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The goal is to raise funding for vital city projects like affordable housing and support services for the city's growing homeless population. Someday, homeless people might receive tokens to buy goods and services from local businesses that accept the currency, according to city leaders."
Are they telling me that they can't sell bonds based on the idea you are going to give the money to the homeless. But if you disguise it as something else..... profit.
I guess anyone can make up their own fake money now.
Bubbles go on for so long that people stop being afraid.
Case and point - the story going around the internet today about the kid who lost 4 million dollars of his family and friends money.
""Sad thing is I was long VIX until a couple of days ago. I was sure there was gonna be a correction but with each passing day my conviction wavered. Stupid. Really fu**ing stupid. I feel like such a fool.""Source.
People absolutely underestimate how long it takes for a bubble to unwind. I know because I've been in that avalanche before in the housing bubble. It took about three years to unwind. Even I had stopped being afraid a few months ago, but this market had gone on for so long you just sit around and wait for the elevator to arrive. You don't know what day it will show up. You only know you have no control over what floor you get off on.
People say you have to have your money working in the market - but you don't HAVE to do anything. Sometimes doing nothing is doing something. And I would rather be wrong than broke.
There is a peculiar behavior cropping up around the Bay Area these days. And I've started to see it all of the time.
It's people stopping for lights almost a full car length away from the cross walk. These are not cars in movement. They are all completely stopped. The one below was far enough back that I wasn't even sure they were hitting the light pad. WHAT -THE - FUCK? Why are people doing this?
They say it's my birthday.
Monday, February 05, 2018
The truth is - no one knows how to measure a recession now. In Silicon Valley we used to have at least small recessions every three years - LIKE CLOCKWORK. Now, now one knows if recessions are going to be small or end life as we know it. The Fed spent eight years printing money. Now none of us know who is swimming naked.
But the sun was hitting that contrail just in the right way that the contrail was making sun rays. And I thought that was just cool. I've never seen that before. And it's the kind of thing that only happens for a couple of minutes so I didn't have time to frame the shot better than this.
"The arrival of autonomous vehicles is an inevitability, so it makes sense that before mass adoption hits, companies like Lyft and Uber would want to band together to determine what our self-driving future will look like. Sounds pretty harmless, right? Well, not so fast, because a new pledge by 15 big-name transportation companies seems designed to screw over city-dwellers who want to ride in their own self-driving cars. Item #10 of the Shared Mobility Principles for Livable Cities, co-signed yesterday by Uber, Lyft, Zipcar, and Didi Chuxing (China’s largest ride-sharing service), reads as follows:"
I have never been to a conference where Uber attended, but a HAVE been to a conference where Zipcar and Lyft were. It seems like these two have gotten pretty cozey. And frankly I walked away pretty frightened by Zipcars philosophy.
That company or their previous co-founder is super socialist and she speaks to governments ALL THE TIME. She 's on an advisory panel setting agenda. Not only do they want to ban everyone else from driving autonomous cars, but they want to ban you from driving all cars by charging you by the mile fee. Basically forcing you into only the option THEY give you. Which is basically having less cars by punishing you financially. Don't believe me? Here is a handy video of one of the co-founders basically giving the same speech I saw. Skip to about 1 minute 40.
If you want to be super bored you can watch her TED talk where she predicted in 10 years we would have a 3 degree rise in temps resulting in 50% species elimination. She gave this talk in 2008 BTW.
If you skip ahead to 6 minutes 17 she starts talking about road pricing.
This has got to be the most anticipated sell-off in history. But bubbles go on for so long that people stop being afraid.
When bitcoin was down by half there were a raft of articles saying - don't worry - bitcoin is only one Microsoft, not even a whole Apple, and only two Warren Buffets. And I've been waiting to mock them. Because I can assure you if Apple or Warren Buffet lost half of their value people would be losing their minds.
Honestly, I don't know what Bitcoin's market cap is. I once thought it was roughly 200 billion, but some say 200 billion has already been wiped out. This is now at a point where it will spill over into the regular market. People are billions poorer. And it just sucks because Silicon Valley has found another way to rip people off. That is who Silicon Valley is right now. The greatest con artists on earth. They literally convinced people to buy fake money with their real money. There has never been a greater vaporware product than bitcoin. At least this lunacy will soon be over and hopefully money can start flowing back into real products.
Thursday, February 01, 2018
It's hilarious Democrats are trying to give Obama credit for the improved economic conditions. You mean, Obama cleverly timed it so thing got better right after he left? He didn't want to do that victory dance while he was in office?
I guess we get to see if we are strong enough again to survive higher interest rates. Every time interest rates cross 4.25%, they've pulled back in the past.
Last night on the news they predicted that gas would rise to 4 bucks a gallon by summer. And the dollar has fallen enough now that I believe them.
Gas prices going up like that is infinitely more scary than interest rates to me right now. That is going to hit people harder than it did during recession because people are commuting from even farther and farther afield these days to try to find cheap housing. So while you can try to insulate yourself from higher interest rates, you can't do that with gas prices. That hits you right away. And when people are spending hours on the freeway.... it's not going to be pretty.
Likely the tax cut everyone is getting will go directly into gas. These two things are fairly deflationary - so we will see if inflation wins out this time. I personally think the flood of money that was printed and is now free, will prevail. But it's going to be messy and everyone is going to be mad. I believe there is a ridiculous amount of pent up demand in lots of areas. And that is very inflationary.
I don't know how I really feel about autonomous racing. Drone racing is about the most boring thing on earth. So I'm not sure how cars will be any different. Racing is about the human element. Right? But the cars will probably look super cool.
