Tuesday, August 30, 2016

It just all sucks.

"Food Deflation Driving "Least Profitable Year In 20 Years" As Farmers And Grocers Get Crushed".

You know when Zero Hedge does a negative article on food deflation, we are well and truly fucked. If you ever read ZH, deflation is only good and people who say anything otherwise are nuts. Sure consumers find relief, but the offset is that businesses get killed. And that is a bigger deal than the savings the consumer gets. When a business gets killed there is a trickle down effect. But every time the price of something goes down (like gas) people scream that this will be great for the economy. Great I tell you!

This is 2009 type stuff. Even then they would not admit we were in deflation. A few weeks ago Mr S and I were in the store and I asked him - what is up with milk? He was like - what? They are having a sale on milk and a couple of weeks ago a store was having a buy 2 get the third free on milk sale, I say. I can't remember the last time I've ever seen that. Well it turns out what farmers have so much milk now they are just dumping it into the fields, and that is why the Obama administration felt the need to buy up a ton of cheese and donate it to food banks.

When it gets to the point of food deflation we are really in the throws. It's the last thing to react. And I'm not sure the dollar will not get a bit stronger, causing a little more deflationary pressure. It's been hard to tell how this was going to go the past few months. The dollar has been going sideways. So the deflationary downside risk was much less. But if the dollar start moving back up - all bets are off.

I think the dollar decides this election.

Monday, August 29, 2016

I guess they are going to try and keep this market up until the very end.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Saturday, August 27, 2016

My motivation needs jumper cables.

Everything is boring me right now. I even bailed on a car show in the dogpatch area of SF because it just takes so much effort for so little bang. The traffic sucks and just slapping a wing on something isn't worth fighting the traffic.

I think the Valley is stuck in a rut ~ because I am definitely stuck in a rut. ~

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Even Hilary's pant suits say no fucks given. Where did she manage to find this hideous treasure trove of polyester? She is one step from wearing moo-moos.

This is what I feel about an interest rate hike.

Key mortgage rate holds below 3.50% for the longest stretch in nearly four years.

I believe interest rates were about 4% ish when the Fed raised rates in Dec. They have been down in this range for longer than I can remember. At points even a smidge lower.

I'm not going to bet they aren't going to raise rates. I believe they are going to burn this shit down before they leave. What do they care if the banks go bankrupt. Oh yeah. Banks can't do that. I don't even know how banks are making money now.

The only thing is that pesky election. I've never thought they would raise in an election year. But honestly, inflation pressures ~are~ really building up.

She's not a duddy after all.

When we brought home our new girl, for the first two or three weeks I thought I'd made a mistake. Mr S. basically harassed that breeder out of a bunny, and then she got here and she kinda sucked. It was like she didn't like her new freedom. She didn't do binkies even though she was a baby. (see above video) She didn't want to run around. It was the weirdest thing ever. We actually tested out calling her Meh for a while. Seriously. Her saving grace was that she was an early kisser. Which is the harder thing to pull out of them. So we were willing to settle.

You see with bunnies there is a lot of revisionist history. When they arrive they are super cute because they are babies. But then they turn into an asshole for a couple of years. They pee on your bed, they chew things up incessantly. Some will litter box train well, others are not as easy.

So once you get them past all that they turn into these lovely little pets. But it takes work! But by the time they die, you've forgotten all the rough spots and you only remember them being perfect. When this new girl came she was the complete opposite of our last bun. She couldn't be more opposite.

But I am really starting to like this girl now. She is super sweet. She's starting to gain a personality. She is literally the cleanest, best litter box trained bunny we have ever had. And she hasn't reached the ~chew everything you can get your teeth on~ phase yet. Which is a relief. Then you are constantly worrying about their GI.

The other nice thing about her is she doesn't hate cameras. So I'm pulling out the slow mo. Everything is better in slow mo. Right?

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Damn overachievers.

I'm not sure what he was carrying, but you have to admit it's pretty impressive.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Mercedes/Maybach concept.

I found myself being really entertained by the girls at the Concours this year. I'm normally not a big fan of most girls. I don't know how you men put up with us. But these girls rocked so hard.

I was taking these pictures when a girl walked up to me and asked - do the wheels light up? To which I tilted my head to look at them. She continued... they look like those light up yo-yo's.  Which immediately made me smile.

Look at you, I said! They do look like yo'yo's. And I still don't know if those wheels light up, but it would be bad-ass if they did. Plus she rocked for making that observation. That is a girl I could hang out with.

The interesting thing about all the cars this year was they were super long. You don't realize how long cars used to be until you go into one of those old timey museums. Cars used to be like a block long. Everybody seemed to be in a luxury sedan phase this year. Not just rich, but extremely long. Everyone was competing for the RR Phantom space it seemed..

Funnily enough - the only reason I know about Maybachs is because of the Trump show.

If this doesn't scream deflation, I don't know what does.

Honestly, I'm mostly over talking about deflation. I think very soon inflation will be much more problematic than the risk of deflation. This economy has so much pent up demand I'm a little scared. This whole thing is going to switch on a dime the minute we get a less repressive admin. However.... this article caught my eye.

The US government is buying 11 million pounds of cheese because no one will.

"The US cheese market has had a significant oversupply problem for most of the year because foreign buyers have looked elsewhere for their dairy products as a result of the strong dollar. Previous to this slowdown in exports, many farmers had ramped up their production due to record high prices."

(emphasis mine) FYI - The dollar has basically been trading sideways the past few months.

The last time the government intervened in the cheese market was during the depths of the Great Recession. It's just crazy how long it takes for this to run it's course through the economy. The dollar started getting stronger about a year and a half ago. So it's taken that long to filter all the way down to food deflation. Which obviously the government will not allow. Although, it didn't really help that much the last time they bought fancy cheese to give to food banks.

I love cheese. But I also grew up on government cheese. I'm a welfare baby. It came in long blocks. The idea that poor people get fancy cheese these days is crazy@. I actually talked about it way back here in 2009.  I even hunted down a link that shows what government cheese used to look like. You should read my previous post because I'd forgot that the reason why Obama and Reagan did this was to keep farms from going under.

I know everything "is perfect" but governments rarely do this kind of thing. This is a glimpse into the real economy.

Drowning in your reflection.

The whole time I've been taking pictures of cars I try to avoid getting my reflection in there. Lately though, I think I'm softening a bit. I'm the short one in the quarter panel below. Good luck.

Crazy housing indicators.

The news came out today to say how great new housing sales were. Which I yawned about because people in existing homes are locked into low low rates. They aren't going to move unless they have to. Why would they? New home sales are about the only market that exists. Of course this number is only going to look good for years to come.

Half of the listings in my city are new construction. And here is the crazy part - the oldest house on the market has been there for only 13 days. Up from 11 days last week. This would make you think the Fed should raise rates immediately. The snap back in housing when this economy gets going to going to be intense.

If you go over to the rental market - EEEEEKS! I got my rental filled two months ago and since then, that market has fallen off a cliff. A year ago you could rent a place in two weeks flat. It took me 30 days to rent my place this time which is how I noticed the market was changing. Now, it isn't uncommon to see places sitting for 80+ days. If I were to have to put my place on the market now I wouldn't expect it to rent before 45 days.

I'm not sure if some of those renters have become owners. If they were smart they should be, but right now it's just too hard to tell.

The other interesting thing is because so few houses are on the market, a lot of people are becoming property managers. When places were renting in two weeks, any idiot could rent a place. It will be interesting to see how this pans out as the competition becomes stiff.

Better late than never?

Saturday, August 20, 2016

I'm going to be down at Pebble Beach with the cars. I'd watch my twitter feed because traffic has been a nightmare lately. I don't expect to get back till close till midnight. No posts till Monday.

Friday, August 19, 2016

Oh...... I see you've been reading the internet.

I started experimenting with my new bunny yesterday with Panacur. And I'm kinda scared to tell my vet honestly. Doctors of all sorts frown on self treatment these days. Don't they? I think most of them have a real unhappiness with all the medical advice floating around the net.

The thing about e. cuniculi is there is no consensus on what to do about it. I think my vets position is that the immune system will fix it until it doesn't. Most wont show symptoms anyway. It isn't even known if treating it will kill all the protozoa or if you need to retreat them from time to time. Some people think you should treat no matter what just in case.

I've taken the position that I would rather try to treat her now while she is healthy. I think the immune system probably keeps it in check (usually). But if their immune system gets a little weak it probably takes advantage of that weakness and multiplies.

I'm sort of in this weird position between vets and breeders. The breeders want to treat aggressively, and the vets not so much. Even the very respected house rabbit vet who did the necropsy on my last bun only recommended treatment if the rabbit showed signs. The hard thing about that though is once they show signs you probably don't have time to get the blood work back before the rabbit is dead. Which why I tested my new girl as soon as her little body was big enough to give blood. When they are sick - they are not foolin'-  and time is short if you can't fix it fast.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Does this bowl make my ass look fat?

My girl has doubled in size. Still no firm name. Stripper names just don't seem right for her.

I don't understand cities that can't whip up a mean burger. You are dead to me.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

It is a clever way to force a holographic image.

A lot of these holographic systems are done with a projector. So this is kinda clever. It's the first time I've seen this technique used on a tablet or cell phone.  But it's still not quite a real hologram. I think the thing at the top acts like a prism. Yet still folds flat.

You can see the image animate in the video below. My vid is pretty short, but - you do get to hear my voice. I wasn't sure if I was impressed or not. I'm still not sure.

Monday, August 15, 2016

Do you think I will get killed if I go to Tijuana?

Saturday, August 13, 2016

Wings and things.

The guys are into wings right now. I'm happy there is a new trend finally, but I'm pretty meh about the wings. It's so 80's. They barely even bring out my tard laugh. I find it especially funny because the cars they are sticking them on often already have small wings stock. But at least it's ~something~ new.

If you can judge the economy by car mods, I'd say things suck pretty hard. It's ironic because the recession is what got me into car shows. Previously there was enough tech to keep me entertained, but after the recession - not as much. But car shows! Those guys still had money. Car shows probably got me through the first four years of the recession. But even those are pretty meh right now.

Creative use of tape.

Friday, August 12, 2016

Everybody gets that Trump is trolling us. Right? He is better with charts though.

Call me Maybe.

So...... yesterday I got my new bunnies blood test back and she has e. cuniculi. I figured if I couldn't get a negative rabbit from the breeder I got her from, a negative rabbit probably doesn't exist. I think it's a dirty little secret in the rabbit world. And the truth is, unless you are a shelter, you just aren't going to test rabbits for this disease unless there is already some problem. And by then it's probably too late since the blood work takes a week to get back. I've found out that some shelters have reported 100% positives.

Most rabbits can live without symptoms their whole life. But this disease is like a time bomb. A positive reading doesn't matter until it matters. Then boom. Dead.

The good news is we know early before she is sick so we can at least try to kill some of the protozoan before it can do very much damage. Right now her titer is at .0735. High is 2. Low is somewhere in the range of .035. It's a good thing she can tolerate blood tests because I predict she will have a bunch of them over her lifetime. A rising titer is a very bad sign indeed.

We still haven't decided on a name. We might call her Maybe.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

People are so stupid.

This article should read - Manufactures returning to U.S. leads to huge boom in jobs for people with skills to assemble robots.

Everyone seems to think robots magically appear like locusts. They are incredibly complicated with probably thousands of parts. Your laptop or phone isn't made completely by robots. Now is it? It still needs a human element. 

Some jobs will be eliminated. But more jobs will be created because robots are hard to make. Big Macs or not hard to make. Which is why those jobs will be replaced by robots. Robots are complicated to make which is why they will still need people.
I'm probably going to drive to San Diego in October. Is it bad that I'm obsessed with having a California burrito? I think San Diego is the only place to get them.

I never thought I would travel to another city far away and order a burrito. Finding burritos in California is like finding air. They are everywhere.
This is me on a loop - The democrats know they have been in office for the past eight years. Right?

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

I know - just poke them with a big stick.

The past few days I've been trying to figure out why the LIBOR is going crazy. This is the overnight lending mechanism that signaled the financial crisis.

Sometimes it takes a little while to find the real reason.  But I found this headline a little interesting. Who knew that governments actually had to purchase bonds at all. I thought they just printed them up out of thin air.

Bank of England’s QE plan hits a glitch — it can’t find enough bonds to buy.

"The aim is to drive down long-term interest rates and prod investors into riskier assets, making borrowing cheaper and easier for businesses and households."

It's so depressing that the last eight years has been nothing but financial communism. There is no free will. Only the constant prodding of governments to force people into  risky assets. Not that people wouldn't pour into these things anyway given the chance. But it's so super creepy that this is what most of the counties in the worlds only objective.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Every time I read about Germany having problems with refugees, I just don't understand it. What happened to all the soccer hooligans?

Fools, liars, and con men.

I am super surly right now. All of a sudden people are experts on shit they know nothing about. It's frankly gob smacking. So lets deal with this phony oil rally. Opec comes out and says they are going to freeze output and oil surges. It's the most blatant market manipulation ever, and if people don't see that I just have to shake my head. Oil is down by a lot! So OPEC is making less money. Why would they say - no big woop, lets just make even less money. These countries have no choice but to continue to pump oil. And anyone who doesn't think so is a fool.

Personally I'm happy that oil at Cushing is starting to take a leg down. But most of that is due to the temporary weaker dollar which has now almost recovered. Summer is almost over, and I would expect the builds to bump the glut right back up to record levels.

Also, the rest of the world is having huge problems. Which makes our dollar stronger. And oil is bought in petro dollars. When our dollar is strong - the rest of the world suffers reinforcing this feedback loop. If the rest of the world pays more to buy oil, that means they can buy less other stuff. Even oil.

So today I brought out a handy chart to show everyone how correlated the dollar was to the inventory build at cushing.

The top two charts are of the inventory at Cushing. The bottom two charts are of the dollar. In the summer of 2014 the dollar started to get dramatically stronger. I put the snippets of the time period close together so you can see this happened at pretty exactly the same time. The dollar strengthened, and the builds started. If I knew how to overlay these charts I bet they would line up quite nicely. When the dollar weakend a bit, the oil glut at cushing came down. They almost move in lockstep.

Why do I bring this up? Negative interest rates are infecting the whole world. And I don't see the dollar getting much weaker. They would have to start printing money for that to happen. And since the Fed comes out every two days and says they are raising rates - the dollar only stays strong.

A strong dollar is really the only thing we have going for us. Because a stable strong currency creates trust. But have no illusion. The dollar controls this train.

Sunday, August 07, 2016

Saturday, August 06, 2016

Still in huh.

Reuters Baffled As Clinton's Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates.

Every time Trump starts saying crazy shit I wonder if he has reached his Tinder Tap Out moment. Mr S. thinks we are doomed. But I just shrug and wait. Never in a million years would I have thought he'd get this far. Now it's kinda like a game.

("Tinder Tapout" is a skit on Nikki Glaser's Comedy Central show, where she creates a fake dating profile on Tinder, and then responds to date requests in the most obnoxious way possible, to see how long a suitor will remain interested despite the her crazy responses.) The links are from the Comedy Central site. Which means you have to wait through ads and crap. But if you can stick it out, here's another one. I mean you guys should play the trump Tinder Tap out game too. Right?

There were at least a half a dozen times I'd thought he'd already reached it. But he says crazy shit. Everyone loses their mind and in a couple of days things are fine again. It's fascinating.

At first Mr S. wasn't into my tinder tap out analogy, but he's warming to it.

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Oh - there will be blood.

I took my new girl in for a blood test today. She still doesn't have a name.

This bunny is chill in a way that is confusing to us. I just threw her in one of those bags you are forced to use for shopping. Well, I usually get mine from trade shows, so they have sorts of different shapes. This one looked more like a thin computer bag. We traveled sort of Joey style. She is super good at that. Other bunnies would have jumped out and chewed their way through. But she's chill.

My vet does think I'm a little nuts. No one takes blood for a rabbit who is healthy. But so far I've talked to five people about e. Cuniculi, and they all give me different answers. My vet today basically thinks the immune system will either fight if off or they die. Boom. Like that. She leaned towards dead. The woman who did the necropsy said it was treatable. She's the one that started testing every rabbit that came into their shelter. So I lean more towards her knowledge because most pet rabbit owners will not spend the money to have them tested. Although my vet is very good, a shelter is like a vet hospital on steroids. There are just more animals to test.. I don't think there is really any consensus on how to treat or what their lifespans will be if they have it. It's sort of a time bomb. If their immune system doesn't fight it they cave. I think the real answer is we are all still trying to figure e.cuniculi out. Which is why I'm testing now. She after all has a 1 and 3 chance of having it.

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

I think it's funny that all of a sudden people are experts on math. The same people who couldn't figure out mortgages, or health insurance... or even tuition! The people who screamed food stamps help the economy. Or couldn't understand how falling gas prices were not going to be a net positive.

These, of all people, are the ones saying Trump is going to destroy the economy. Seriously. I'd be happy to be 1/100th of the stupid Trump is. If he wins I'm going to be so disapproving wonka on these people.

I'm not saying the economy isn't going to be destroyed. Interest rates are back down to record lows all over the world. A 30 year fixed is back down to around 3.30%. And ya know that pesky oil fall is putting a lot of pressure on the economy.

Monday, August 01, 2016

Today I ordered a physical for my new bunny. I'm pretty sure no vet ever has heard that phrase. I included the words "with blood" to signal what kind of visit this would be.

It's not especially easy to get blood from bunnies. Usually you only do it when they are already sick and not able to struggle. I'm thinking my vet is going to call in sick that day.