Wednesday, May 31, 2017

The first thing I did last night when I heard about Kathy Griffin was run over to Syrian twitter to see what people were saying. And wow were things especially brutal. They were pasting her head on pretty horrible scenes of atrocities. Made what she did look really tame by comparison. I'm sure she didn't expect those images to show up in her feed.

It's never going to stop being 2009.

Nasdaq Shrugs Off Commodity Carnage, Retail Crash In May For Longest Win Streak Since 2009.

I started seeing some of this weakness coming through last night in Asia and thought - am I going to have to start bitching about deflation again. So tiresome.

This is what I generally feel about the world right now. The Dems are going to cave this market. WTF do they care? Making things horrible only helps them get more people on welfare. I was really surprised when people bought into the Trump bump because none of his policies would be felt for at least a year I thought. Even when Regan took over it was a year or two before things picked up. And Obama left landmines like confetti.

I also want to say that it is sort of weird that the dollar is going down, and oil is also going down. They normally work inverse of each other. Who knows what that means? (shrug)

Some people speculate that the plunge protection team is the only thing holding up this market. I'm not sure one way or another. But I am sure that most billionaires start to become socialists because they get too far from what made the company in the first place. It's easy to become socialist when things are easy. When you get too far away from the 'struggle' it distorts your thinking.

Anyway.. If it's true the PPT is working this market I don't think it will stave off the socialists billionaires from taking this market down. I don't know what day... but it feels like we are walking on a semi frozen lake.

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

This guy doesn't understand "prisons".

"A likely shift in the mortgage market is creating 'prisoners' in housing."

When I read this article I laughed to myself. It took a long time for people to realize what was happening in the mortgage market - I thought to myself.  I started talking about this at least in 2014 because I realized that mortgage rates would become low enough that eventually it would incentivize people to not move creating a very large distortion in the housing market. Also Read: A new housing crisis looms. A shortage. I wrote it in 2014.

It is completely not normal to need to reply so much on new housing inventory. New housing is more expensive than existing housing. But everyone and their Uncle are locked into crazy low rates. So why would they move? So, - if people don't want to move - and new housing is your only option - what do you think happens? Shortages, and extremely expensive real estate. Finding cheap land to build on only gets worse. Not better.

"In a market with tight inventory, the decision to sell depends on whether homeowners want to risk selling and then not being able to find a new home.

"The existing homeowner is trapped in this prisoner's dilemma of the cooperative outcome," Fleming said. "If we all acted simultaneously, it would solve the problem. But we can't take the risk of being the one that acts when everyone else doesn't."

I'm sort of curious what "problem" this writer thinks can be solved by everyone "acting simultaneously" to sell their houses. That is one of the stupidest things I've ever read.  If there is no inventory - there is no inventory!  I must have written a hundred times about new housing starts not keeping up with population growth for more than twice/three times the average recession. You can see in this chart that it took four years to even get back to the low end trend line. The median trend line is about 1.4 million units a year. Right now we are only creating maybe 1.2 million units. That's almost seven years.! Something that has never happened in history. Going all the way back to 1960 we were still creating about 1.6 million units a year. And all the downturns look like V's, not sideways squiggly lines.

These "prisoners" have gotten the best gift of their lifetimes. The best way to get ahead in life is to pay as little interest as you can possibly manage. Interest is a tax on everything you buy. Being a "prisoner" is paying over 6% interest when rates are actually down in the 3% range because banks won't finance you and you can't move. Which is what I did for at least 4 years. Everyone who was eventually able to refi is sitting in the loveliest prison on earth. I used to turn a house about every six years, but even I think if I had to get stuck "somewhere" my place isn't the worst.

It's just so frustrating to see people write about real estate when it seems clear they don't completely understand it. These prisoners are creating a very solid economic bedrock. What comes next though is hard to predict. Other than it's going to be very costly for the "non prisoners". I'd like to see that guy write an article about that. We will see who feels more like a prisoner then.

Sunday, May 28, 2017


Because traffic looks like that - I am sheltering in place.

And since Mr S. is still on his rein of bread terror - today we got hamburger buns. Which were really amazing. I mean 90% of the bread he's baked tastes amazing. Trying to get bread to hold it's shape....well, that's an art form I guess, and Mr S. is in an obsessive phase.

Which means some weeks he will bake bread three times a week  because the last batch didn't work exactly how he wanted it. And if it sounds like I'm bitching a little.. it's because I am (Only a little). No one can eat that much bread a week without blowing up like a balloon. But he's really getting pretty amazing at this stuff. These rolls came out perfect, so hopefully I will only get bread once this week. It is pretty amazing to get fresh baked bread at home though.

Friday, May 26, 2017

They managed to ruin it for everyone.

This whole conversation started with Mr S. telling me about that guy who bought a ticket to go see the Wonder Woman movie open to women only.

Me - I can't imagine anywhere I'd rather be less than a movie theater filled with women. I base who I want to hang with by who uses the bathrooms, and I don't want to wait in a line.

Him - Well you could always self identify as a man and use the men's room.

Me - I did that once accidentally. I was walking out as a guy was walking in. It must have been a really clean men's room because I think that would have tipped me off sooner.

Him - You didn't notice the urinals?

Me - It didn't have urinals. That would have totally been a tip off. I would actually do that more if men's rooms weren't so disgusting. You guys sort of have your own repelling feature. I mean, what is a guy going to say - there was a women in the mens room............ said no guy ever.

Him - Was it one of those unisex bathrooms? You know like that Starbucks we stopped at.

Me going off on a tangent - I can't stand those things. It's like being in your 20's all over again where you have to train the guy to put the toilet seat down.

Him - Now I get the lines.

Me - Oooooh right. I guess I didn't see it from your point of view because I've got my own issue going on with them. That sucks.

If you think automation is going to take half of our jobs.......

How many of you are able to get solutions from a phone tree? A phone tree is automation. Right?

Mostly a phone tree just throttles how quick you get to a real person. This tax season I had to get a document resent to me and the phone tree was actually able to do that. But I was shocked as shit. A phone tree helps me less than 5% of the time. 95% of the time I want to speak to an operator.

Phone trees handle simple questions. And we've had them for about 20 years. Have they made it so there are less customer support people? No. Even ATMS didn't cause tellers to go away.

Update - OH. Now I get why the media is pushing this narrative so hard. They want people to lose hope so they can push their big government agenda. I think they are liars and phonies.

"The most influential think tank in Democratic politics has just offered new proposals casting aside the caution that constrained Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign. Not only did the Center for American Progress embrace new spending of more than $200 billion a year, its "Marshall Plan for America" called for alleviating working-class economic strains through direct government creation of 4.4-million jobs."

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Socialism is slavery.

"As our technology keeps on evolving, we need a society that is more focused on providing continuous education through our lives," Zuckerberg said. "And yes, giving everyone the freedom to pursue purpose isn't going to be free. People like me should pay for it, and a lot of you are going to do really well, and you should, too."

Beware of people giving out freebies for they will own you. And what will happen when one day they change their minds? Or go out of business? These people are not benevolent. They make money off your back and then give you a pittance to make forget that you are their slave.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Ben Carson is right.

"I think poverty to a large extent is also a state of mind," Carson said. "You take somebody that has the right mindset, you can take everything from them and put them on the street and I guarantee in a little while they'll be right back up there.

Carson grew up in abject poverty in Detroit, rising out of it to become a world-renowned surgeon. In the interview, he seems to attribute poverty at least in part to having the wrong mindset.

You take somebody with the wrong mindset, you can give them everything in the world, they'll work their way right back down to the bottom," he said in the interview, which was noted by The Washington Post." Source.

Trying to get people out of poverty is the hardest thing you will ever try to do. I know because I've been trying to figure it out my whole entire life. You see - I still have family in government housing.  And every time I see people shit on what Ben Carson says, I just shake my head because they just don't understand what a complex issue this is. They think - just shower them with money and they will be fine. But that's not how things work in the real world. Sometimes you can give people every cent you own, and they will still be poor, and worse yet - you will be poor too.

It's hard to talk about your family without sounding like a complete asshole. My Aunt and Uncle are the nicest kindest people you will ever meet. They would give you the shirts off their backs. But they do have poor people logic. They believe the only way to get ahead in this life is luck, not through hard work.

My Uncle fell for every get rich quick scheme on the planet. Companies would draw the cost of the schemes right out of their bank accounts. Yet, my Uncle thought that because everything depends on luck - he wouldn't really do the schemes. But they would still take the money from him. I think I learned the most in life from my Uncle.

It isn't that my Aunt and Uncle never had a brush with trying to get ahead. They won the California lottery twice. I talked about it here in 2008. They didn't win millions, but enough to put them on a better path in life. They decided to buy more lottery tickets and stuff they couldn't even use. A few years ago my Aunt was fantasizing  about winning the lotto again and telling me what she would do with the money if they did. She said they would rent a cruise ship for them and their friends to have a party. Which even I don't know how much that costs. But you get the idea. My Aunt then told me that  she guessed they "just weren't lucky" enough to win a third time.

Now, they've already beat the odds TWICE. And frankly if they are "lucky" enough to win a third time I have no illusions they they will not be poor again within a short amount of time. They are like those lotto winners who win big, and in a few years wind up penniless. And the frustrating thing is they are not horrible people. They are the kindest people in the world. But you just can't reverse their poor people logic. Like thinking you will rent a cruise ship instead of buying a house.

Almost two years ago Mr S and I drove out to see our families. His in Ohio. Mine in the projects in Illinois and extended family in the Ohio projects. I hadn't seen my family in a while so a lot of things that used to irritate me I'd forgotten. Like the get rich quick schemes. I always felt like he short changed my Aunt by being so into them and I was a bit bitter about it. It wasn't until the last day we were there that I really started getting edgy. And then, right as we were leaving.......... he pitched me. He had a product that cured everything. And I about lost it. I mean, my Aunt isn't in great health now. So why wasn't he trying to fix her with this product. It brought all that stuff right back up. Because you know the get rich quick product company was just fleecing them. But what do you do to stop that? You can't.

As we were leaving town Mr S. said to me - I'm surprised this didn't cause you to melt down earlier. I was like - what? Him - in the beginning of our relationship it's all you ever talked about. Because honestly I did have a little resentment over it. I felt my Aunt could have lived a better life if she married someone else. It's hard to watch your family live a certain way knowing that even if you helped they would be right back in the situation they are in. It's frustrating. But it had been enough time that I'd forgotten all of that.

I don't know what the answer to all of this is - but I think that unless you've traveled through the welfare system you should just shut the fuck up. Because you don't really know what you are talking about. At my Aunts housing complex I was completely taken back by kids wearing Beats headphones which cost between 2 and 300 dollars. In the projects!

I've said a few times that it takes three generations to get off welfare. The old people you just can't do anything about. They have let their skills lapse so far that you just have to take care of them. The next generation tries for a while to get off welfare, but sometimes they have babies early and just wind up in the same cycle eventually. They will get off the dole for a while, but they will spend some time there. Finally the third generation is young enough to run like the wind and make a fresh start.

Mock Ben Carson all you want, and sometimes he does say goofy stuff. But when he talks about welfare - he is completely right.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

I just liked they were stuck in crushing traffic with the rest of us.

Monday, May 22, 2017


"If the president is the standard bearer for the currency, Donald Trump himself will have to stop being a negative in order to get the dollar back on its feet.

Boosted by the Trump trade, the dollar had soared after his election on the prospect that lower taxes, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation would boost the U.S. economy. But that trade has reversed, and the dollar index is now down 6.6 percent from its post-election high and down 0.9 percent since the election.

"The Trump premium in the dollar has become a Trump discount. Global capital just doesn't feel safe coming to the U.S.," said Robert Sinche, chief global strategist at Amherst Pierpont. " 

These people are getting on my last nerve. Even though the dollar has gone down recently (by three whole effing cents!) it is still stronger than it's been since 2004!  Here.

These people don't even effing understand how the dollar works. The dollar got stronger and stronger from about 2010 on. They didn't even get the connection between the dollar and why oil was caving. Completely missed it! Under Obama the dollar got stronger by 20 cents! And what happened? Oil fell like a house of cards. I started blogging it around the summer of 2014. But here is a post from fall of 2014.

Now the dollar has to get back on it's feet? Eye roll. If the dollar were to continue going up we would get more deflationary pressure because oil is in traded in dollars. That means other countries have to use more of their resources to buy oil. Which means they don't buy as much other stuff. At one point I actually worried it could get as strong as it was in the 1980's where it stood at 128. Or even the year 2000 where it stood at 113. It's merely at 100 right now. After topping at 103 in December.

These people can all pound sand. They are just writing to hear themselves talk. It the stupidest article I've ever read. Now the dollar does start to get a little toppy before we enter a recession. Which I think is happening, but you can't tell that from a 2 cent decrease. I tell that from loan origination.
I normally don't sensor my blog - but I had to delete my last post because I'm too pretty to go to jail. And I'm only being ~slightly~ dramatic. California has all sorts of rules about that stuff apparently, that I don't want to explicitly talk about. Lets just pretend it never happened.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

It's where my demons hide.

I've been spending so much energy trying to find new interesting things to blog about, yet mostly coming up with dry holes - I had to go to the beach. I couldn't do Maker Fair - I couldn't deal with the people. The beach makes me feel better in a way that nothing else can. It makes me feel calm. You can't get cell coverage. It's like the world goes away and it's just you and the ocean.

I didn't get to stay long - traffic is just mind boggling everywhere. It will add at least an hour to every trip. And a lot of the roads at the coast are still closed due to the winter slides. Since you can't really get cell coverage at the beach - it makes things a little challenging.

California is funny about their signs. If they do a road improvement project - they will make a million giant signs patting themselves on the back. See how great we are doing this project for you! But directional signs.....California's motto is meh - you will figure it out.

Then there is the weird thing about nav apps. Waze will not know a road is closed while Maps will. And they are owned by the effing same company. So you aren't completely sure if a road is closed or not. They kinda really suck at road closures.

Anyway... I only got a couple of hours on the beach.. but wow I needed it. And I did get to check out this awesome overlook on my detour.

The beach I chose wasn't the prettiest this time. But it was filled with tidepools and stuff.

Saturday, May 20, 2017

After I made the last post Mr S. says to me - why did you post the pictures like that?

Me - Because the first shot has the most impact.

Him - No. You need to leave the best for last.

Me - Yeah......Most people spend so much time getting to the point, I'm out a few paragraphs in. I don't want to do that. I'm going to get to the point and they can work their way back if they want to.

Him- But it takes the same amount of time to look them the other way. But that does sound like you.

Me - What... weird?

Him - yeah.

Who knew bikes were ~that~ flammable?

Posted in reverse order.

I don't know how this guy laid his bike down - no one else seemed involved. And I've seen a bunch of bike crashes. Once a guy laid his bike down right in front of me on the freeway. When he passed me he had his chest low to the gas tank. After he passed - he sat up. Woobble wobble wobble - down.

I have never seen a bike catch on fire like this. And I got to see the tank explode.

Friday, May 19, 2017

There is no good subject line for this conversation.

A couple of weeks ago Mr S told me he was sort of bummed out because one of the bloggers he’d been reading for a long time had committed suicide. He apparently left behind a wife and children. Mr S. said he never even knew the guy was depressed. He never wrote about it.

I’m like - man… that sucks. You never have to worry about the people who talk about it. You have to worry about the ones who don’t talk about it. And by the time you realize it - it’s too late.

Skip forward to yesterday and the news of the guy from Soundgarden hit.  I tell Mr S. - he didn’t make it. He immediately knows what I mean. You pretty much expect everyone from the “grunge” era to have experienced depression.

It wasn’t until about ten years into my marriage that Mr S and I started having those candid conversations while we were laying in bed before we went to sleep. You never really want to admit to anyone else that you are broken and you might never be fixed. And it honestly wasn’t until that far into our relationship that I realized why he put up with my shit. He had it too. But not to the extent that I do. 

I’ve always tried hard not to be an insufferable asshole. You will never get people to love you that way. It isn’t his fault. I want to be that fun asshole! Which I am. People will take more chances on that fun asshole. Look how functional I am I like to think.! I’m coping great I tell myself.

So, about 10 years in I finally admitted to him that depression was like a shadow that stalked me all the time. It’s always there. You just have to keep outrunning it I told him. And he understood because to some degree he was hiding it too. Maybe he always knew about me and I just didn’t realize. But finally it was all out and I felt relief that I didn’t have to pretend anymore. I think he felt the same way.

Sometimes you are so terrified to turn around and stop running because you will be face to face with all of that. (Me making a circular hand gesture) And to some degree when I said that guy didn’t make it - what I really meant was he wasn’t able to run anymore. 

For anyone who understands this sentiment, hearing that someone “didn’t make it” sort of sends a shiver down your spine. It’s like the shadow blowing on your neck to remind you it’s still there and it’s THAT close.

Now I have about a half a dozen reasons why I’m broken. I grew up in some pretty challenging situations. Some of my earliest memories are of going to the hospital when my cousin and Aunt were in a horrible car crash. My cousin didn’t make it. I was in a children’s shelter for 30 days when I was seven years old. 

Then my grandfather had a heart attack at the kitchen table also when I was seven. By the time I was twelve my stepfather had been killed, and at 19 my Aunts other child died in a house fire while I was living there.  I’d gone to stay at my boyfriends place that night because my Uncle didn’t want boys sleeping at the house. When I came back the next morning to get ready for work fire engines were at my house. I like to justify my depression as a reason why I’m broken - but really it can hit anyone for any reason. Sometimes no reason.

Why do I expose my deepest darkest secrets to you today when I really didn’t even fully admit it to my husband until 10 years in? It was because Mr S. Sent me this article this morning. And I completely broke down. And I almost never cry. I cried so much when I was growing up that some times I don’t think I have any tears left.  But I seriously thought I was the only one trying to outrun this thing. You never really hear from the people who are desperately trying to be normal. The one’s you’d never expect. The ones who would never in a million years tell you. But I guess we are all trying to outrun it in our different ways. 

Now to be sure - this isn’t a cry for help. I could never leave that kind of damage behind for my husband to live all of his days with. Easing my pain by making my husband be filled with nothing but pain is just not for me. It's cruel. I had plenty of opportunities when I was younger. I sort of feel like I had my chance. But I certainly do understand that others might not have the strength to run anymore. I get it. 

Maybe I wrote this for all the people stuck on the treadmill. Running and running and running as long as our legs can hold us. Praying that we always have the strength to keep running.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

2016 electorate - We can't have an old white dude who doesn't understand technology run the country.

2017 - OMG! This old white dude is tweeting all the time. Make him STOP.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

I'm going to create an Alexa competitor called Jargin. It's not going to answer any of your questions, but its going to vomit words so you aren't sure if it's answered your question or not.  

Sure, I'm not going to make any money. But who cares? This is Silicon Valley.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

I don't know where demand is going to come from.

I'm more freaked out about the market than ever, while the media tells me there is no systemic market correction on the horizon. They say the system isn't as leveraged as it was in 2007 - which technically is true. That isn't to say - there isn't a ton of leverage out there.

But the best explanation of why the housing crash went on for so long is because low credit standards brought housing demand forward. And really - isn't that what we have in cars right now?  They tried to fix recession by getting people to buy cars with no money down for at least six years now right?  And all those cars are underwater.

I'm even embarrassed to admit that I bought a ridiculously expensive sports car when it seemed like we might go into negative interest rates. (I didn't do no money down though) And I only bring this up because it shows the sort of distortion in the market. If someone else told me they had done this - I would laugh and laugh and laugh. However - when people start talking about "bail - ins" and negative interest rates - you will make stupid decisions because you'd rather burn your money in the driveway than have the banks forcibly "bail themselves in",  or you lose it drip by drip with negative interest rates. I still don't regret it, because I'm aware how insane that sounds. Yet - that was the market at the time. And I fail to believe that I am the only one who made those types of trade offs.

I know a guy who traded in his paid off truck for a new truck. Decided to lease the new truck for some reason. But he didn't actually have to start making payments for 5 years. And I thought the whole thing was crazy because he wasn't able to make it out of the housing crisis. Even though he was at the tail end of it, his place still hadn't appreciated enough to get him out and this was last year! You car loses a ton of value in five years.

If people gave up their houses so easy - they will default on cars in a nanosecond. People are inherently geared towards rejecting pain. And since cars don't appreciate like houses - why would they put up with any of it?

So, with cars - we are at 90 day supply right now. Retail is in a recession. Restaurants are in a recession. And houses have hit a wall because there isn't enough land to build on. I don't see anywhere the government can juice this economy.

Monday, May 15, 2017

I don't know why they have to treat us like hostages.

Mr S. managed to break my phone a few months back. I asked him to hold it and he dropped it. he hands it back to me and says - I think I broke your phone. Now it's acts all shades of funny.

Then, I shit you not,  a week later he says-  you won't believe it.  I broke my phone. And he hands it to me and the screen is shattered. It acted even more shades of funny. Two phones in one week people. But we've basically been living with it because we weren't that far from the end of our contract.

We finally decide to upgrade instead of use insurance to just get them replaced. We could have upgraded at the cell phone store but Samsung was having a special. If you bought the phone through them you'd get a 6 month Netflix subscription. A phone stand,  and a memory card. I normally hate freebies, but if I was going to buy a new phone - It wouldn't hurt to have a memory card.

Mr S's phone arrives and no freebies. So he gets them on chat and finds out that somewhere in the fine print it says it will take six-eight weeks to get the additional items. Mr S. tells them that he understands if items are backordered, but Netflix is just a coupon code. Apparently since "it's a bundle", you have to wait six weeks for it and the other things to arrive.

Now, they plainly could have stated this in the ordering process and probably everyone would have felt fine. After all - they probably don't want to ship many of these things anyway (they are FREE) so why not say, "you can get one of these, but it's going to take a while". If you are ordering because of those things - you are going to order anyway. Instead they manage to make me resentful for a stupid freebie!

I don't really care about the Netflix subscription, as I said - what I really wanted was the memory card, but it would make me feel a lot better while I was waiting for the other stuff. I mean, really six weeks. What is this? 1980?

It just doesn't make sense the things companies do. Seriously. ONE line on their ordering page. ONE LINE. It all it takes. Instead now I don't want to order from them again because they chose to hide things in the fine print.

People must not be buying appliances.

Whenever the world starts to look a little pear shaped - I like to go to Fry's electronics to see how pear shaped things look. And to be sure, this is not the worst I've seen it. During the recession I thought this store was going out of business because the shelves were Venezuela bare. But I did notice another odd thing. I only bring it up because during the last recession it seemed like every store loaded up on appliances to sell. Even OSH was selling them for a while.

As I was going through the department, one thing jumped out over and over. A good portion of refrigerators were cornered, or had giant dings in them, or the doors didn't even line up. Not one of them was marked down. And fridges cost like 3 grand! I have never seen an appliance department look like this. I mean, why would you even buy from a store who couldn't keep their floor models looking good? It's like no effs given. All I know is going to Fry's made me feel a lot worse about the world. They were loaded up three isles deep with all the "as seen on TV" stuff. Perfume took up another. TV's. Who's buying new TV's at this point?

The problem with the Trump administration is that he's killed a lot of regulation, but that cost is already baked into the cake. Most of the stuff he's done hasn't trickled down to the average person yet. And for sure it feels like people have held their breath waiting and now they are just all rolling over because they can't hold their breath anymore. All the stuff Trump as done so far yields long term relief. Not short term relief. So I think we are in for some pain for a while.