Tuesday, April 07, 2020

I'm telling you what they can't.


We are likely 4 weeks from a plateau.

I am not an epidemiologist, unlike everyone else on earth right now apparently (said in the most sarcastic way) nor do I play one anywhere - I can only tell you what I have observed from other countries. And I feel there are starting to be some troubling misconceptions.

Wuhan was shut for 77+ days. New York has only been shut down three weeks. Everyone keeps talking about how we are bending the curve. But as you can see the projected curve and the REAL curve have very different shapes. The projected curve is like a roller coaster. Up, then straight down. While as you can see from the chart above - the real curve is more like the curve of a rainbow.

The brown box on the chart is when the whole country of Italy went into lockdown. But the pink arrow is when they started shutting cities down. 10 cities were locked down on 2/22/2020. We are far from saying there is light at the end of the tunnel.

The other thing that is being passed around is that if you get the virus you have some sort of immunity. Which is wrong. There have been people saying there might be some limited immunity, but no one knows if that is true yet. To the contrary it has been known for many weeks that a certain amount of "recovered" positives can relapse. I think the number was 13 or 14%. We know this to be true because South Korea keeps reporting this.

Personally it's been confusing how, despite being under lockdown, cases can still increase in the way they do. But I heard a rumor this morning that in Iceland (I think) 43% of asymptomatic cases eventually turned into symptomatic cases. I don't have any verifiable data so this is just a rumor for right now. So maybe if you are a non symptomatic case quarantined with others and you have a 17 day incubation period - maybe you can have a couple of generations of people not having symptoms before the third person becomes symptomatic. If makes any sense.

It's just unusual that these countries keep accumulating so many cases after some pretty severe lockdowns.

Monday, April 06, 2020

The plant is mostly idled.

This weekend we drove by the Tesla plant solely because my ramen place is pretty much right next door  I want them to survive. People always wonder what their last meal might be, and I guess mine is ramen. They are still doing takeout and we've been doing ramen picnics in the bug out truck.

Anyway, I have never seen the Tesla parking lot so empty. I expected to see this place bulging with inventory but it wasn't. ALL of the car carriers are gone. They must have all gone home because usually they are parked everywhere on side streets in that part of town. There wasn't a single one. You know it's empty because this goose was blocking the road. This road is normally insanely busy.

He is storing cars in one of the overflow lots he rents.... but normally he has cars in his lots, cars in his neighbors lots, and a few paid overflow lots. I didn't check them all out because I wasn't there for that. I was there for ramen.

The transients are still there and the place is still a little mad max because of that.

A while back I'd read they had started putting boulders up to prevent them, but when I went to check it out a few months ago I realized that only the part in from of Seagate has boulders. Which I found funny. I hope they paid for those rocks but I bet they didn't.

Ya know... I spent a while hanging out with bums when I was growing up. They never burned their shit down. This new crop of bums burn shit down ALL the time. I just don't get it.

Sunday, April 05, 2020

It's raining and I'm playing Doom Eternal. Because I'm an adult.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Tonight in fucked up pandemic news - Peru now has tanks on their border because Ecuadorians are fleeing into Peru. Everyone knows what is going on in Ecuador. Right? Super messed up. Life can be very cruel.

I'm almost more afraid of the hostilities between countries than I am the virus.


Friday, April 03, 2020

America is still in the bargaining phase.

I haven't really talked about the virus ~that~ much in the past few days because people are in desperate need of hope. Every other day someone writes a story about how we are flattening the curve. And I get it. It's what we all hope.

Since (as a whole) we are a less dense population than China or even Italy you hope perhaps things will be slightly different. But, a couple of day blip does not make a trend. Italy's numbers might be going sideways - but they starting locking down cities AT THE END OF FEBRUARY.

In confessing my own sins... I've been going out every three days or so. Armed with a mask and alcohol swabs. I still need to replenish supplies and some takeout is still open. It's a hard battle between complete lockdown and hoping some of your favorite places get at least some income and will come back. But from what I have observed - there are still a lot of people out. I mean....go to a Chickfila. I'm betting you will be astonished. Because I was and I was in that line. Don't yell at me.

In my burb I've been watching how many people mask up. Two days ago it looked like finally maybe 30% of people were wearing them. The three days before that it was maaaaybe 10%. Even my chiropractor STILL wasn't wearing one after I'd given him a portion of a box. I finally gave him half a box of n95's and told him I couldn't give him anymore. See... my going out is an overall benefit to the community.

I think because we only have *minimal known reporting the burbs feel not as much at risk. But every time I'm in Silicon Valley proper I see a million license plates from my city. We have car lots here and people never seem to remove the license plate holders that identify my town. So if it's in Santa Clara it's pretty much in my town.

The asterisk is because my county is purposely not breaking the numbers down by city. They say it's because of patient confidentiality, but I know it's because people will panic. I honestly think the panic is better than what they are doing now because it is delaying people from taking this seriously. If you know there is a case in your city... you are going to start protection measures.

There are still an army of virus deniers. It's frankly unbelievable. But, Wuhan was locked down for at least 77 days. We are still really early days. This virus has done exactly the same thing all over the world. I don't think we have seen real lockdown yet. And I don't even know if it's actually possible. Hard lockdowns just cause people to fly to the wind like dandelions.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

A.I. before the pandemic.

It knows everything and can do anything!

Now - yeeeeah. We aren't really sure. Don't trust the models too much.

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

This pandemic was suppose to be an introverts dream. But now all my extrovert friends are needy.  They are all bored and coming out in weird ways.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Nancy Pelosi implored everyone to visit Chinatown.

Here is a link to the Guardian article.

Now she's blaming Trump for letting people die? Pelosi criticizes Trump response to pandemic: 'As the President fiddles, people are dying'

For at least a week on the local news Nancy and London Breed were calling us all xenophobes.

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Glad I didn't listen to my enablers.

Empty freeways enticing some drivers to hit 100+ mph, CHP says.

"The California Highway Patrol has noticed them, too. “We are seeing a rise in motorists traveling at excessive speeds in the Bay Area,” CHP - Golden Gate Division said Friday in a Twitter post. 

“We are still out in force and will continue to issue citations. There is no faster way to get a suspended license than driving 100 mph+.” The tweet included a photo of several speeding tickets, including one for a 2015 Hyundai Sonata clocked at 117 mph.

But even before Bay Area shelter-in-place directives were issued in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the CHP was warning lead-footed drivers to slow down. In a March 4 Facebook post, CHP - Golden Gate Division noted that highway patrol officers reported a spike in the number of 100-mph+ citations written in the nine Bay Area counties. “(In) February, an officer assigned to CHP - Hayward Area issued a driver a citation for going 133 mph on I-880,” the post stated, adding that the driver was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence."

A few days ago a guy I know said to me - you can drive as fast as you want on the freeways right now because they are empty and the cops won't pull you over.

Glad I didn't listen to THAT guy.

Friday, March 27, 2020

This is our life now.

It must be the first time they have sent out a push alert because everyone is freaking out. I live in the suburbs, but what difference does it make now. They are also converting the Santa Clara Convention Center into extra beds.

Santa Clara is the heart of Silicon Valley. It's where all the chip companies are.

The whole world is going to be super stabby.


The last week or so I've been having a lot of conversations with Mr S. about China. I feel they are in a very dangerous spot.  When you inflict this much financial damage to every country on Earth - when this crisis is under control - countries are going to want their pound of flesh.

My feeling is that countries are a little like gangs. If one gang kills someone from another gang - they will come back and kill two people. But since (hopefully) we are more civilized - they will just financial starve them. No company can depend completely on China for their needs again. Countries also can not afford to trust China in the same way.

Last night though Mr S. took it up a notch. He says to me - you think people are going to be mad at China..... just wait until they get mad at Saudi Arabia. Initially I'm like - yeah... and.

He goes on to say - Saudi Arabia just put all the other gulf states out of business. This is where my eyes grow wide because I always assume people are just trying to hurt us. Be he's right. None of the gulf countries can make any money now. And they are not exactly a rational culture. Let's all hope that none of this spreads to bullets.

Also the chart above is Louisiana light crude. Now at -6.50. On Doomberg two weeks ago someone claimed oil would go to negative 3 bucks barrel. At the time I wasn't sure. But I hope you have all emptied all your bathtubs so we have a place to put oil. Said in the most sarcastic way.

I'm not really sure where the Saudi's are going with this. They either need the money really badly, or they are probably going to war with some of their neighbors.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Shelter in place thoughts.

When I see people who embrace socialism I usually think they should be forced to live in a socialist country. I"m pretty sure it would cure most peoples love affair.

But luckily I think they will soon get to find out without even leaving this country.

Of course I dont think Trump is a socialist- but the result of all this money printing will be the same.

We get to find out if the housing recession was the exception rather than the rule. We did not experience hyperinflation because people hoarded money rather than spending it.
I found out today that you can't really use the excuse you "have things to do" to get off the phone right now.

I have a girlfriend who will literally try to torch four hours of my day if I let her. And as I was rolling that out - I realized that is not a thing. We are all trapped in our houses.

What's going to happen when the bears get hostile?

One of the more fascinating things to come out of this crisis is videos of animals not being able to care for themselves. I told you about the monkeys who were starving. Now there is this video out where pigeons are swarming an old lady for food.

Apparently our kindness has created an overpopulation of sorts. There are so many animals now that all of them sort of can't survive in nature on their own.

Last night Mr S. and I were talking about this. After I showed him the video he goes - That is fascinating and scary.

Me - Why do you think that?

Him - What happens when they start getting aggressive?


Him - Well... not pigeons.... but there are other animals like bears.

I look at him and my mind is blown. Because I didn't think that far down the food chain. Bears depend on us too! They normally raid our trash. Well not mine, but you get the idea.

Less people means less trash and so forth.

Saturday, March 21, 2020

This <---

Since the virus deniers are still out in full force today - I am posting this. It is consistent with the videos I saw out of China and Iran. They had to restrain these people because they kept trying to claw their ventilators out of their faces. Truly like they were downing..

It is really sad to see EVERYTHING is playing out exactly the same as in China. The whole thing is completely surreal to me. And to see people politicizing this to serve their purpose is evil and wrong.

Just look at the hospital rate in Santa Clara County! They have consistently been a day behind in their reporting. So, below is current. The hospital rate is currently 35%.

My county just announced via twitter that rescue personnel will be showing up in protective gear.

They dont want people to be alarmed.

Pictures I should have posted. Day 1.

At CES this year they had a working city diorama. The cars moved. The train moved. And the VTOL went up and down.

Friday, March 20, 2020

Called it!

Police investigating ‘disturbing trend’ of teens coughing on produce.

"PURCELLVILLE, Va. (KRON) – Police are warning of a “disturbing trend” after a group of teens were caught on camera coughing on produce at a grocery store, then posting it on social media."

I guess the over/under was eight days.

People reveal their true preferences.

I find it sort of fascinating what people will not buy right now. With so many shelves still sold out.

There is still no TP in the store I went to today. No pasta and very little water.

It's almost like they are saying - If I'm going to die..... it's not going to be on a diet. You can still find plenty of whole grain bread and pop chips. Who would have guessed people would pass on pop chips?

This ~might~ explain the collapsing videos.

I have only seen one person say this. And we don't believe anything until we see it confirmed by a few people. Right?

Personally I was pretty confused by the videos I saw because if you were that sick - why would you collapse in the middle of a road for instance. But if they had a super higher fever, maybe they were not in their right minds. No pun intended.

You can read his full timeline here.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Murphy's law.

After imploring people to stay healthy at all costs - I had a coffee table accident two days ago. I'm fine. I'm fine. I was able to mow two lawns today. That's how you know I'm really fine.

Normally this would not be a story. I've just never had a roaming bruise before. It's an example of how doing nothing might send you to the clinic. I was simply getting off the couch and my power cable was wrapped around my leg apparently, and I jammed my foot into a coffee table. Still not a story.

The thing that makes it unusual, is yesterday this started out with a bruise about the size of a lime by my two smallest toes. Throughout the day yesterday it kept expanding. A day after the accident. First one toe then two. It also kept creeping up the arch of my foot. Last night it looked pretty crazy. Very purple. But I could walk on it. It just looked way uglier than it was.

This morning I woke up and it looked 50% better! I'm feeling awesome that I don't have to visit a clinic.

Then I decided to go out to see if I could find more zinc. Which means I had to put shoes on. A little like stuffing a sausage into a shoe. But I could do it - so I still think it's fine.

Now some of the purple is returning near my toes. It's even bruised on the underside which is pretty impressive even for me!

Once I was taking a pictures in the vineyards and was using a rock to get elevation. I'd tested the rock before I stood on it - but as soon as my full body weight hit it - the rock rolled and I fell into a stump that held the grape wires. It landed right in my sternum. Thankfully it did not have a point or else I would have died right there. Not even being dramatic.

It's still funny because I could have fallen 358 degrees in any direction. But I had to fall the one way that could have killed me.  It took me about a month before I could take a deep breath.

Be SUPER careful people. And don't make fun of my Fred Flintstone feet.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

People had lost their minds...

And fear of bubble charts. Now is not the time to gloat. But humans never seem to learn.

When Tesla is up 100% in six months! That should have been a warning sign to everyone!

Watch for a second wave in China.

Last night I started reading that Chinese students were flooding back to China because they believed it was the safest place on earth. You see - China has been convincing people that their outbreak has completely run it's course. Despite China knowing early on that you can get infected with this thing over and over.

I don't know what the truth is. But I guess we get to find out.

All of a sudden everyone is a math genius.

The saddest failure of all was people parroting China's numbers with such emphatic confidence. They are still doing it today, and are frankly doubling down on numbers that are not real.

I didn't really think age made a difference but couldn't prove it. In China there were reports of full families and apartment blocks being wiped out. It was hard to know if these stories were true. And only when it spread to the rest of the world could we see the truth.

Italy had 475 deaths today. They have been in some stage of lockdown for a couple weeks.

Oh.... and anyone using the phrase "best guess" to cherry pick numbers needs to stop it.

Captivity snowman.

We had a hail storm roll in yesterday. Which is not a story. It hails every year.

Being California.... it pretty much melts within five or ten minutes once it hits the ground. But I'd just planted all those onions and I don't need hail right now.

I had to go out in the rain and hose down my onions so the hail didn't damage them. After an hour an a half it still hadn't melted so I made a tiny snowman. Which is pretty unusual. I don't have snowman making skills so the nose is a wire nut. And the eyes are pepper corns.

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

On a scale from 1 - 10 (10 being the worst) how insulting is it that Jack Ma has to send us masks? We own 3M for christ sakes!
I am not a fan of "shovel ready projects"..... but if there was ever a time to fix the roads - THIS IS IT. While we are all locked down.

It would probably cost less per mile because the roads are wide open instead of gridlocked with traffic. They could effing do two lanes at once!