Tuesday, November 30, 2021

This is getting good now.

2008 called. It wants it's narrative back.

I think one of the more frustrating things about this past year is how people act like all this inflation is caused by everything else except money printing. Trump printed too much. And I'm happy for Biden to get the blame, but.... every chart tells the truth.

I'm still in the camp that believes this is transitory. Because I don't believe they can keep printing the amount of money they did in the pandemic. I just didn't expect people to refuse to work together for this long. 

My understanding of the supply chain is that the pandemic rules started making a mismatch with truck drivers. For every ship, there is a truck/s that are suppose to meet the ship at a certain time. Because of the pandemic rules, there became a huge mismatch and trucks were reporting having to wait for 7 days or more at ports waiting for their ship to be able to unload. Without pay.

So... now we have one side of the economy that is full of inflation due to these unexpected circumstances. On the other hand... housing is down four months in a row.

Powel is backed into a corner because he knows these real estate numbers. He knows it's not normal for houses to go up 20% in one year. He knows there is nothing under this economy.

Also... I finally found out how people were able to keep their houses. I have real estate so I get a lot of spam. Last week someone started texting me about the Governments' GSE mortgage relief plan.

Self I said - what is this shit. Apparently - unlike the housing crisis - you can refi your mortgage even if you have 0 equity. Which burns like the surface of the sun. I had to wait 8 years to be refinanced. And I stuck 20% down on my house and never missed a payment!

So now I'm watching HELOCS, because if you were able to refi without equity, chances are you took out a HELOC at the same time. Because that is what people do. Also a couple of weeks ago someone on twitter was saying they took out a HELOC to buy bitcoin. Oy. Who knows how common that is.

So we all know that housing prices never go down. Right? Said in the most sarcastic way. But all that helicopter money is surely gone by now because just this week I discovered two of my favorite restaurants closed. One I tried to save from the very beginning. That wave is now starting. The delay is over.

I wish people would just quit making shit up.

Map reveals low vaccination rates in Africa that have made continent a ‘reservoir’ for variants.

"Africa’s low vaccination rate means it has become a ‘reservoir’ for Covid variants, and the blame is being put on the West. "

The thing everyone likes to ignore about Africa is, it has a full 15% of it's population living with AIDS. Some People say it's as high as 20%, but I'm willing to round down to the wiki number.

There is absolutely NO evidence that unvaxed people are causing the virus to mutate. However, I have linked two instances where they think immune compromised people - ie people living with AIDS or cancer,  are the most likely source because the disease incubates in them. Here and here.

This is how they think Delta was created, and now NU.

Monday, November 29, 2021

Will cars be the new Mall anchor stores?

During the housing crisis I spent a significant amount of time writing articles about how people were overreacting about the mallpocolypse. They were just going to turn these malls into mixed use housing/retail. Santana Row in San Jose was the perfect successful example. And that is what happed over the years. We all survived.

Then last night I was talking to Mr S. about how he thought Rivian was going to sell cars. Car lot? How? I haven't been paying very close of attention to them (outside of their ridiculous stock price) because I have seen a million cars that never made it to market. Until I see one in the wild they are just another Far Away Future car. Which is what Mr S. started calling Faraday Future after we saw it at CES. He knew that car was never making it too production.

We all know that Tesla is already in malls, but possibly most people don't know that Lucid and Polestar also have mall showrooms at ValleyFair in San Jose. Right across from Santana Row.

I saw them over the summer and I found it perplexing. I thought mall real estate must be super expensive. But what if all the new car companies go direct to market and just set up a showrooms in a mall. Then they become a new anchor store.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Something new in the 'hood.

Technically it's 'hood adjacent. But I've got a new place to stalk.

This is on the side of a building - so I'm guessing those Rivians must be shipping soon. 

They had a Rivian at CES two years ago and try as I might I couldn't make it to the center of the pile. So I've never seen the inside. I did get cool Rivian swag though.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Friday, November 26, 2021

A reoccuring theme.

I talked about this in January when Delta was almost nothing. Delta was also thought to be spawned this way. : Interesting article on how the virus might be mutating. 

"Now, his analysis, reported in a preprint on medRxiv earlier this month, has become a crucial puzzle piece for researchers trying to understand the importance of B.1.1.7, the new SARS-CoV-2 variant first found in the United Kingdom. That strain, which appears to spread faster than others, contains one of the mutations that Gupta found, and researchers believe B.1.1.7, too, may have originated in an immunocompromised patient who had a long-running infection. “It’s a perfectly logical and rational hypothesis,” says infectious disease scientist Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust."

But everyone just wants to fight fight fight. We have made ZERO progress in a year. 

Let's see how well this ages.

With Low Vaccination Rates, Africa's COVID Deaths Remain Far Below Europe & US.

ZeroHedge has turned into the biggest click bait garbage site on the internet. I mean, I know. most people never click through to the links, but LITERALLY almost every single article about the pandemic has been brought to you by Wall Street. Just click through the links. They are playing you.

They like to wait until a wave has subsided ~somewhere~ on the planet and then try to make an argument of why herd immunity is a thing. It's NOT. Knowing that people will not look deep. Or even do a fucking simple google search.

The article above likes to point out the low vaccination rates of Africa and their low death rate. But they completely ignore their summer wave. They do this over and over basically pitting people against each other. The more people are riled up the more clicks/money they get. When I read this a couple of days ago I just rolled my eyes.

Covid will go on forever and ever until people get tired/exhausted of wanting other people to die.

A bit quicker than expected.

Scientists thought we would be vaccine resistant by March. It's November.

I personally have been telling people for a year and a half if they keep fucking around, we are going to have a vaccine resistant variant. That is the awesome prize they are going to win. Herd immunity was ALWAYS a lie. Everyone who watched it from the beginning knows this.

No fucks given.

I am personally not vaccinated. Not because I am anti vax, but because you could see the waves of virus coming over the waters. I didn't want to have to get waxed all the time, so I figured I would wait till this shit stabilized. Like the flu! Then I would get the vax. But now it doesn't really matter anyway.

Night time twitter lit up like a Christmas tree last night. But I'm here to tell you - we were probably already there based on my on the ground experience.

Last week at the supermarket. I was making niceties with one of the guys working there. Suddenly he says - this year is worse than last year, right? I reply - yeah... even with the vax. Then all of a sudden he unloads on me. Telling me all the people he knows that have had it. Including someone triple vaxed.

I knew this would happen, just not this quick. The boosters have only been out a couple of months right?

People will say it's the unvaccinated who are spreading the desease, and causing this to mutate. That is not true. It immunocompromised people. That's how the Delta mutated, and they think this is how the new NU was created. With a VACCINATED cancer patient. The immunocompromised don't always make antibodies after vaccination.

And it's all so frustrating because Trump printed an insane amount of money for the first waves not to leave a mark. What happens now if we are back at square one?

Also if I hear another person claim they are immune from the virus because they already had it - I'm gonna lose my mind. There ARE people who they think are immune, but if you have gotten Covid - you are not one of them. People who lived in close quarters with those who have been infected, and remained without infection. THOSE are the people they ~THINK~ have immunity. But more research needs to be done obvi.

Thursday, November 25, 2021

I don't think Thanksgiving decorations have ever shown up on the blog. But.... I guess if you have a giant skeleton to store - you start dressing it up as other things.

Sunday, November 21, 2021


Right now, California is everything you dream it to be. It's achingly beautiful this fall. Normally everything but the grapes are brown this time of year.

The first storm we got was an atmospheric river.... and literally no one freaked out because we had ample space for it to run off. It normally doesn't even green up around here until February. But here we are. I keep catching myself trying to spot spring flowers. But we are months away.

Really unexpected considering our drought was/is INTENSE. I was just at Lexington less than two weeks ago and it's still low enough you can swim across it. A very short swim. It's only about as wide a your typical river. There is nothing in the overflow side.

It's just such a nice treat.

Friday, November 19, 2021

The slow descent into blandness.

When you just want to look like everyone else.

I think this is a Lucid Air. The wrap part of the car says Air. The only reason it caught my eye was the sensors. But this car that got in my shot proves my point. I don't even know what it is... but it's basically the same car.

The sad thing is that I was in one of these car about 3 years ago... and I thought they were cool at the time. But now they look exactly like every other car on the road. I hate this period in time for cars. Every SUV looks like the next.

I do enjoy they are testing in Elons back yard. I mean, it's not exactly like they are that far away in the first place. But I do think it would be hilarious if they started doing loops around the Tesla plant. And it was funny to get the car in front of the dead Fry's electronics.

This is the first time I've seen one in the wild - outside of them in the corporate headquarters.

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Saturday, November 13, 2021

At least it's something.

I really haven't had time to get content for the blog because Mr S. and I have been working a sub-floor for the past 5 weekends. And I hope to never to never do that again in my lifetime. I've done a ton of repair. Even gutting a house. But replacing a subfloor is breaking me. 

You never realize how cheaply houses were built in the 70's until you open a sub-floor. I've had to add framing. And I'm pretty sure they were allergic to insulation in the 70's. I think all of the insulation in this house - I PUT IN. When I replaced the roof I had some put in. Then when I did my deck. 

And the thing that suuuucks - is this subfloor was ~so~ borderline. But... I'm thinking about selling, and if for some reason people don't like the top floor, and want to replace it - they would see there was some minor damage at the edge. If you bought a house and saw that you would freak out no matter how minor and start ripping everything out the previous owners dime.

The smart thing to do would have been to carpet over it and pretend it never happened. No one hates carpet. But here we are. The replacement sheet is only a quarter of the full floor, but there was no insulation in the entire cavity of the right side. I had to figure out how to install insulation in a subfloor cavity that was enclosed. It's just been a lot. I thought I would just pop out the nails and the subfloor would just pop up, but I had to chip it out. I just hate it.

Then I started feeling like a shut in. Even though It's not like I'm sitting him on the sofa. So I went to see the butterflies today. Pretty low migration year.


Wednesday, November 10, 2021

They always hide how bad it is.

Zillow Finds Institutional Buyer For 2,000 Homes As Disastrous Flipping Business Winds Down.

From Zero Hedge. "Just 16,000 left to go"

Checks notes - it took them seven days..... to double the amount of houses they are getting rid of. Seven days ago they were getting rid of 7000 houses. Zillow has landed itself into some good old fashioned negative equity. I'm guessing their problem stems from the chart below. But since my new rule is to not fight a printing press - it probably doesn't matter. Look at that crazy jump in April.


The media is finally catching up to what I said FOUR months ago.

It's pretty uncommon that I quote myself, or entirely re-post an article. But we are in exactly the same spot - so what difference does it make? I've emphasized the important parts. I've lost hope that the pettiness will ever end. Or that our government on BOTH SIDES will  convey the proper information. Information that is plainly obvious to any who want this to be over rather than getting their kicks in.

I'm currently in the cancel category with the mandate. so I'm actually allowed to do less things than during the first month of the pandemic when we were all shut down! I AM NOT ANTI VAX. I believe in vaccines. There is just too much heart stuff with this vaccine. I'm probably less of a health risk than most reading this post because the Snarkolepsy household has been taking rapid PCR tests weekly for two weeks now. THIS is the way forward. If everyone can spread it - TESTING IS THE ONLY WAY FORWARD! 

Yes, there are possible false positives and false negatives. But frequent testing is the only way to get asymptomatic cases. And it's the biggest NO WHOOP thing you can do. Honestly, you put a q-tip three quarters of an inch up your nose. Go get a q-tip and measure 3/4 of an inch.

About a month ago I was talking to a guy I know and revealed I wasn't vaccinated. He said - me neither. And immediately I knew why. His dad just passed away from a heart attack right before the pandemic. It was at that moment I realized I wasn't the only one holding out for this reason. I don't have a heart problem but it runs in my family.  For people who have serious heart problems run in their family - taking this shot is terrifying. And I'd like to say that it's pretty cool the people who refuse to wear a mask are forcing people like me to get vaccinated. Said in the most sarcastic way. AND THEN - they exclude us from society. People have really been revealing who they are these days.

And until Americans stops this, I will probably be reposting this same article a year from now because we are about 30 days behind Europe.  And if you don't know what that means, don't bother. Herd immunity has always been a lie.

COVID is surging again in California. How CDC’s indoor mask guidance will affect the state. 

"Walensky said the reversal was due to new evidence suggesting vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant “may be contagious and spread the virus to others.” 
“This new science is worrisome, and unfortunately warrants an update to our recommendations,” Walensky said." 

Gee.... seems like it was just (checks notes) FIVE days ago we were being told we didn't need to worry about the Delta variant. 

The frustrating thing is - we see what is happening in other countries, and the US just ignores it. Time after time. Then everyone is shocked when we have the same result. 

It's been WIDELY known since winter that the Delta variant was capably of immunity escape. Meaning it tries to evade the antibodies you develop to protect you. I have been saying for a little while now that if this is like a bad flu (for which you need a new vaccine every year) you are not going to be protected for future strains. BUUUUUUUT. It gets worse. 

For about a week, it's been all over night time twitter, that even the immunity people get after the vaccine wears off. It hadn't been circulating for long enough to talk about it. But last night on the old people news they confirmed it without saying so. People who got the jab in December and January are in the running for a booster shot. 

ALL of these people have been circulating around thinking they were immune. And the CDC has been on the hopeium train with the vaccine.

Places I thought had the best chance of controlling it are now seeing very large rises in cases. Despite a very high threshold of vaccination. Like Isreal, and Iceland. These countries have a deep national unity. Unlike the US where most people just want to see it burn down. My guess is they will get their wish. because they refuse to work together. At this point I think all the Democrats have to do to kill Republicans off is say - look, I think it would be a good idea to breath air. And the Republicans would say - I WILL NOT. I won't breath air if it's the last thing I do! And it's frustrating because I think we need all the Republicans. Otherwise our voting block gets smaller. 

I don't make the rules, but people better figure this shit out soon. I've said it before - the chart goes straight up like a SpaceX rocket. And the oxygen requirements for this variant are much higher when people get sick. 
Pretending it isn't happening will not save the economy.

Wednesday, November 03, 2021

That seems like a lot of percent.

Zillow stock dives ahead of earnings; analyst report says 66% of homes it bought are now ‘underwater.

Oh my.

Zillow to sell 7,000 homes for $2.8 billion after flipping flop. 

"Zillow Group is looking to sell about 7,000 homes as it seeks to recover from a fumble in its high-tech home-flipping business. 

The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter."

I don't know. This seems like a conflict of interest since Zillow basically tells everyone how much their house is worth. And now we know who's thumb has been on this very ridiculous scale. I'm sure they don't have any part in housing going up 20%YOY. I'm pretty sure this means there is a zero percent chance of them raising interest rates.

The article goes on to say....

"The move to offload a block of homes comes as Zillow seeks to recover from an operational stumble that saw it buy too many houses, with many now being listed for less than it paid. The company typically offers smaller numbers of homes to single-family landlords, but the current sales effort is much larger than normal."

Then, there is this fresh news from this morning.

Zillow to exit its home buying business, cut 25% of staff.