Saturday, March 25, 2023

Mad Max Truck.

Normally cars are out much much earlier in the year..... but it's been super ~super~ rainy. And we are all done.  Every single small talk conversation involves the rain.

In the image below, this is not a paint job. The metal was ripped open to expose the motor.

Wednesday, March 22, 2023


The Game Developers Conference is still requiring shots or tests to get in. I didn't know this was still a thing. And they were super serious. They were making sure it was a current test. No one had a temper tantrum.

It ~is~ interesting though, because I don't remember how many conferences I've been to since they started allowing us unvaxed people in. But it's been a bunch. Nothing to write home about sadly. This is the first one I've had to show a test. I even went to CES.

Good for them. Someone needs to be an adult. My position for a very long time now is that testing is the only way out. Yes, the tests are not perfect. But they catch more of the cases than not testing!


Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Oooh. It's gonna be a nail biter.

Inflation is still running hot-ish. But raising rates cause more bank pain. This guy is right. It could collapse the WHOLE system world wide. Europe was in negative interest rates a few years ago. Everybody going to get hit because the banks were doing nothing wrong. 

They were doing the prudent thing at the time and circumstances changed. Root on their demise at your own peril.

Everyone woke now?

It's weird because three months ago - no one was talking about bank failures. "Now everyone knew what they were doing was risky." Said in the most sarcastic way. And I know this because if anyone would have said these bonds were going to collapse the banks, I would have said - wait what?

I was watching this whole thing and even I didn't realize it was going to collapse the banks. I was only looking at it from the real estate sector because I own a house. I don't own a bank.

I also find it weird that no one wants to blame the FED for hiking rates at the fastest pace in history. 0.25 to 4.65% in one year. The final pin was probably when the FED said they were going to hike faster. The banks probably had to pull the pin.

At least there is no more talk about this stupid soft landing no landing. I think we've landed.

Monday, March 20, 2023

It's almost like these finance guys are rooting against America.

"As I have written about extensively over the last year, the global economy is dividing into two. On one hand, you have the West and our printing-press-based Central Banking policies. On the other hand, you have a growing constituency born out of a maturing Russian and Chinese alliance, now also inclusive of India, Saudi Arabia, and other nations. The petrodollar is dead, China and Russia are openly hoarding gold and some fund managers believe that Xi and Putin know that the West is running a ponzi scheme."  Source.

Why else would you post this utter garbage about these countries and ignore the banking crisis in China? Just a couple of days ago they started easing because their property market has been in collapse for about a year. Read: China makes surprise rate cut to boost banking liquidity and the economy. They are literally blowing up ghost cities they built in the 2008 era. Maybe they can print enough money to built them all again.... but I doubt it.

Additionally, I'm not sure India is going participate in this new alleged love fest. There are literally skirmishes on the border on India and China all the time. They are not exactly friends. Why does India need those those retarded monkeys? It makes more sense for them to side with us because we want to move new plants there.

I guess I'm just really frustrated at how paranoid in all the wrong ways Americans have become. Apparently all you have to say is a few trigger words like "digital currency"  and WEF and people can't even think straight. Like when Zerohedge says this:

"Andy lays out the thesis “that the world is poised for a monetary reset which would result in the BRICS having their own reserve currency, likely backed by gold, and how this goes hand-in-hand with de-dollarization trends that are currently unfolding”."

Why would the BRICS have their own reserve currency? There is not a one of them that is doing better than us. And we aren't doing great. I'm old enough to remember when the Euro was going to be the reserve currency!

Everyone seems to think because Xi is meeting with Putin we are toast, when exactly the opposite is true. The only thing John McCain said that was right, is that Russia is basically a gas station masquerading as a country. They don't really make things except weapons. And I'm not even sure they make those anymore. If they did, I'm not sure this Ukraine thing would be more than a year old now.

Russia NEEDS China because Russians need "stuff" that China makes. China needs Russia  because demand in America has fallen off a cliff. It is very hard to find work in China right now. And ultimately... China and Russia are both Alphas. That fake friendship will be put to its test soon enough.

But.... if those pay per word click bait blogs can rile you up, they get to pay their rent.

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Whole lotta phonies right now.

(orignal post)

I was spitting posts out like this about every three weeks and even I didn't think the banks would fail again. I just thought a lot of homeowners would be in a lot of pain. Like I was during the first housing crisis. I lost 40% of my homes value.

I'd also like to say that the roving gang of "go woke go broke" are going to get their asses handed to them. This is an asset inflation bubble just like the housing crisis. Everyone gets hurt. 

In January, literally  no one was concerned about housing. I was a nut.

Monday, March 13, 2023

It is super cute to see tons of people say - those rich people shouldn't have taken their money out causing a bank run. But also - they were stupid to keep their money in that bank, they knew they weren't insured.

Everyone is an expert in hindsight.

Sept 23 2021 interest rates are at 2.88. We've just gone through one of the most significant disruptions in history. 

Why would any bank think interest rates would double in one year? And why does everyone think it's "just that one bank"? I mean, Europe was buying bonds at negative interest rates!

Just on Saturday all my twitter finance guys were saying they didn't think it was going to spread to ANY other bank. Which made me rethink how much I trust them. Maybe they are lying, or just lying to themselves. It a popular thing the past few years.

Just just wanted to post this because people seem to think that bank was corrupt. Even I thought about stashing money there many times. And I suffered through the housing crisis. That was an extremely SAFE bank.

I think America is going to be on this downward track until people stop rooting for the demise of literally everything. Oddly, they seem to think they won't get splash back.

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Now that I have gotten time to digest what happened to Silicon Valley bank, I have to say that it's super infuriating how the Fed destroyed this super prime bank up. If anyone thinks that can't happen to their bank, I'm here to tell you that if those people (the richest people in Silicon Valley) got hit - EVERY OTHER BANK IS AT RISK. All of these banks were pushed into doing the same things by the FED. It was the only place they could make money.

In early 2021 it was probably sensible to buy long term dated bonds. NO ONE could have predicted that any President would make an executive order that houses could not be foreclosed upon which caused people to spend with reckless abandon. It had never been done before to my knowledge. This is the catalyst for inflation. Pure and simple. People felt house rich. All the old timers will remember this from the housing crisis. Very same dynamics.

People love to hate on the rich, but these people did nothing wrong. Now they can't meet payroll. It's just so maddening how the government keeps fucking over businesses and people just shrug. Everyone will eat their words soon though. 

On the right side it said - everything is real. But for this moment I want to pretend that nothing is real because on Monday everyones' life changes.

Friday, March 10, 2023

It is outrageous this was allowed to happen and that people were too greedy to be sensible. . 45% in TWO YEARS!

Mission accomplished.

Over the past five months there have been numerous articles about the Fed hiking until something breaks. And now we have our first break. I think they thought the labor market would break first... but....there are obviously less people alive and capable to fill those positions.

We have also reached the stage where every time they say something "is not" something else - it absolutely is. 

"Silicon Valley was heavily exposed to tech industry and there is little chance of contagion in the banking sector similar to the chaos in the months leading up to the Great Recession more than a decade ago. The biggest banks — those most likely to cause a systemic economic issue — have healthy balance sheets and plenty of capital." (emphasis mine and LOL) Source.

I'm still trying to understand the details, but it looks like a combo of a bond problem and deposits drastically falling. Which I imagine is every banks problem right now. Silicon Valley Bank was not subprime. Even I thought about using it from time to time. They were very stable through the housing crisis.

It's unknown if the Fed can stop raising. There is still way too much money chasing to few goods and services. And just because the too much money element is taken away, doesn't mean you get more goods. 

I was just in Best Buy this weekend and wound up taking pictures. My second store because the one in Santana Row freaked me the hell out. I even asked them if they were remodeling because the one close to me just did.

Best Buy right now is looking like Fry's did when I started taking pictures. If I didn't know better I would think they were going out.

China is a complete black hole right now. They are in the middle of a collapse and the people I normally follow are coving the US. But from what I have seen, reopening China is pretty much a failure. And if y'all remember...... during the housing crisis China started building all those Ghost cities which pretty much saved the global economy. Now they are literally blowing them up. China is not going to be there for you this time. 

This is global.

I have said since the beginning that just because the economy is open doesn't mean it is saved. People believed a lot of lies over the past three years, and now they get to live with those consequences. All of those FOMO people are FUCKED.

Tuesday, March 07, 2023

Everyone better pray this is not true.

Source. I don't know why the chart is structured this way. 2023 is on the left.

This would mean vastly more people than I ever imagined are going to be in negative equity. Prices need to fall to the trend line, and I bet they overcorrect.

But all the media tells me this time is different.

Thursday, March 02, 2023

I thought you wanted to burn it all down.

NBC Reporter Goes To Crimea, Shocks Viewers By Telling The Truth.

"NBC News journalist Keir Simmons recently went to Crimea and reported that most Crimeans are pro-Russia."

It seems the only place they want to burn down is the US. Republicans used to be the party of freedom, but now they are only the party of freedom to infect their own fellow man.

I am completely astonished that conservatives are spitting out this propaganda now. Everyone knows people in that area are not free to speak their minds. And why do we even care what the orientation os the people in Crimea are? It's stolen land.

If I'm Zelinsky, I'm taking back Crimea, and toppling Russia if I think I can. Why Americans are against this is what I'm trying to figure out. I want to know why conservatives are so invested in keeping Putin in power. Why do we give a fuck? 

I mean, Tucker Carlson is on the news every week supporting Russia over Ukraine, because apparently Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia. Said in the most sarcastic way.

I understand not wanting to send out our sons and money to Ukraine, which is fair. But Russia started this, and now that we see how weak Russia is - why not let them topple? That place is a complete Potemkin village! And if they wouldn't have started this war - we would have never known, and would be left living in fear the rest of our lives. LET THEM FALL!

The state of their military is so dusty, I can only imagine what they nuke capabilities are. It's almost more likely they'd blow themselves up. Yet it seem like Republicans are doing everything in their power to keep Putin in Power. WHY?