Friday, May 12, 2017

Autonomy is not going to kill as many jobs as people think.



I personally think every generation is a reaction to the previous generation. For example in my moms generation everyone worked in factories and it was hard work. Even one of my first jobs was in quality control. Basically manufacturing. So they wanted all of their kids to go to college so they wouldn't have to do that. They wanted a better life for their kids.

And that is pretty much how I view the world now. I don't have kids, but I think when autonomy fully arrives it will be taking the jobs that people don't really want to do anymore. For example - truck driver.

I've known I ton of truck drivers in my time and I've never heard them say they loved that job. It does pay well, but they are way from their families for long periods of time. And it really takes a toll on their bodies. As a result we actually have a truck driver shortage in lots of parts of the country. In some places by 50%!

I can think of at least a half a dozen sectors where it's just really hard to find people for these jobs now. And robots and autonomy won't really be chasing people out like the media likes to portray. They will be making it so those companies can survive because of the lack of people wanting to do those tasks anymore. Farming will be another. One day we will look back at this period in time and think working the fields was medieval.

I have to say - it's sort wildest to stroll though a conference and see tractors branded like computers though.

The other thing is - with everything having 360 camera's you almost can't take a picture of anything without getting yourself in the shot. For those of us who like to stay fairly invisible - it sort of sucks. But I'm trying to get used to it. I'm in the far right of the monitor.

5 comments:

Dashing said...

I think the problem is that it gets rid of low skilled jobs. It's not that that is awful, it's just there are a lot of low skilled people. A lot of them may not have the mental horsepower to keep working when all the low skilled jobs are automated.

I also don't understand the automated cars. If the goal is to have all cars automated I don't know why they didn't just think of something more electric rail like. Then you wouldn't have to worry about gas, tires, and what have you. Obviously wouldn't work well for off roading. Maybe there's something I'm overlooking with this though.

Funny enough, in proving I'm not a robot it asked me to identify all the pictures with a gas station.

she said: said...

" If the goal is to have all cars automated I don't know why they didn't just think of something more electric rail like."

You mean....... like a train? Cars are a bubble of personal space. Even if they are all eventually linked together - we still want our 4-8 feet of bubble space. We deal with people we don't necessarily like all day long. The last thing we want to do is hop on a train with people we like even less than the people we work with all day.

I think you are right though in that it does get rid of low skilled jobs. But that is the penalty for not wanting to learn anything new. Which is really why people get stuck in low skilled jobs. They think that once you get a certain age you can just coast on the stuff you already know. But we don't really live in that world anymore. Yet America is diverse enough that you can still have an okay life even on a sixth grade education. It finds a way to take car of "most people".

"Funny enough, in proving I'm not a robot it asked me to identify all the pictures with a gas station."
That is kinda funny.

It's good to see you. You haven't been around in a while.

Dashing said...

I basically mean instead of roads it should all be track lol. Really years ago I thought interstates and highways should be rail and cars should have something that hooks them up to it, mainly because I thought it would allow me to go faster legally and probably cheaper shipping. Then the automation stuff started up and it just seems safer if things were on rails. Since our railway system sucks I thought that could be some grand compromise. I never really thought much about for regular roads. But it seems like the automation thing is going to happen surprisingly soon and idk if I want to trust a computer, Will Smith I Robot style.

I don't think trains will ever become a thing in the US because of multiculturalism. Japan had like one fatal shooting in 2015 as an example https://archive.fo/zFBvI. While the Americas are ridiculously dangerous https://archive.is/ZTaZh. Just as an example, in Missouri, there was talks of making a train high speed commuter train between Kansas City and St. Louis. Columbia, which is basically the half way point, protested because they didn't want to deal with the crime influx it would have caused.

It is not to say people shouldn't learn. I am really saying people may not be smart enough to do a higher skill but they were truly great at driving a truck. Of course I could be exaggerating the issue though, I'm sure the person making horse drawn carriages did not like cars but alas we made it. But I mean there are automated robots that can tell which strawberries are ready to pick and picks them. I saw a robot that can crawl the vineyards and knows which grapes are ready to pick and picks them. It feels like in another decade you are going to have to own the robots because what else is there? Robots will probably fix robots by then lol. I heard one fellow say here in the near future the only jobs will be servicing the rich because they'll be the only ones with money. With the stock market, central banks and the ultra rich have been gobbling up control of the whole world so it may not be far fetched.

I have thoroughly enjoyed your blog for quite some time. It started me down captain capitalism and zerohedge. Then further off into the wild world of crazy politics.

As far as feeling sad goes from another post, I think it is the ones who don't say anything that you have to worry about. Everyone feels sad and they will realize it if they talk to someone. But if they say nothing they will think it is only them. The School of Life youtube channel is pretty fun stuff and they usually have some good, quick perspective while simultaneously not having to admit to others if you are feeling low lol. I really like this one when I'm not sure what I should be doing https://youtu.be/aEzMwNBjkAU

I've also read California is having dam issues. Like dams in liberal country are kept in a lot better shape than ones in republican country. Is this true?

she said: said...

You are speaking my language there. I fantasize about that too really. Don't they have a train in Europe that takes people and cars through the Tunnel? I"d like if they did something like that. Maybe if the train operators were robots it would make it cheap enough.

"I am really saying people may not be smart enough to do a higher skill but they were truly great at driving a truck."

Yeah I get it. I've been looking around since your first comment. I guess I still thought driving truck was a high paying job. But now it seems more like working at McDonalds on wheels with way more pressure. You can barely support a family. And they are away from their families for long periods of time. It's hard on relationships. I read the churn rate is about 80%. I'm guessing this sector will easily slip into automation .and not many people will care in the end. It will actually make life better for people if they can find other jobs of course.

"I heard one fellow say here in the near future the only jobs will be servicing the rich because they'll be the only ones with money. With the stock market, central banks and the ultra rich have been gobbling up control of the whole world so it may not be far fetched."

I do agree that rich people are gobbling up everything, but that is really a function of government right now. Before Obama companies used to do a lot more profit sharing. Then the Obama administration made that really expensive for them to do and the glut of workers made the incentive less. And to some degree it was sane for companies to start hoarding money after what happened in the recession. You just couldn't get credit no matter how worthy you were. So what are you going to do after that? Try not to need the banks. It does give a not so great image though.

In regards to robots fixing robots.....I think sometimes people look at all the successes and don't see all the failures. I like to use speech recognition as my example because at my first tech job I had a friend in North Carolina who was working on it. That was like 20 years ago. Now, sometimes you use speech recognition and it's magic. Other times you use it and say - WTF! I never said any of those words. And they have been working on it forever. That's sort of what I feel abut robots fixing robots. They can do simple repetitive tasks, but they break down as much as humans. This isn't to say you won't eventually be right. But we have a lot of time for people to adjust. Technology comes in fits and spurts. I think you probably won't have to worry about it that much in our lifetimes.

she said: said...

(For some reason google made me break this post up because of a character limit)

"I have thoroughly enjoyed your blog for quite some time. It started me down captain capitalism and zerohedge. Then further off into the wild world of crazy politics.

Oh wow. I know you've been with me for a really long time. I didn't know I was putting you on a proper path to nihilism though. I'm not sure if I should be flattered or apologize to you. I do enjoy when you pop up here though. Thanks for being so loyal.

"As far as feeling sad goes from another post, I think it is the ones who don't say anything that you have to worry about."

Your words really touched me. I guess like I've always though the people who talked about it are attention seekers. I'm still kinda shy and don't really like attention too much. And the harsh reality is that if people make up their minds - there is nothing anyone can do about it. What reason is there to talk about anything? But sometimes you do fall down into a hole and you realize you've been digging for ages and you aren't making any progress. Then one or two people give up and is just sends a shiver down your spine. I can't blame those people. I get it. It make you start digging double speed.

"I've also read California is having dam issues. Like dams in liberal country are kept in a lot better shape than ones in republican country. Is this true?"

That could be true. I have to think about it a little bit. The rich areas have smaller reservoirs because land is way more expensive. So it might just be less costly to take care of them due to their size. But let me think about it a little bit. Thank you for you kind gentle words Dashing.

 
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