Wednesday, March 18, 2020

All of a sudden everyone is a math genius.

The saddest failure of all was people parroting China's numbers with such emphatic confidence. They are still doing it today, and are frankly doubling down on numbers that are not real.

I didn't really think age made a difference but couldn't prove it. In China there were reports of full families and apartment blocks being wiped out. It was hard to know if these stories were true. And only when it spread to the rest of the world could we see the truth.

Italy had 475 deaths today. They have been in some stage of lockdown for a couple weeks.

Oh.... and anyone using the phrase "best guess" to cherry pick numbers needs to stop it.


  1. The closest thing to honest numbers is S Korea as they have been testing everyone.

    I was going to say we'll have honest numbers in a few months but here they are only testing people with a reason,the infected people who are not showing symptoms are free to wander about. So we will never really know.

  2. I've read that Italy has a number of younger people in the ICU, it's not just the old there.