Monday, October 23, 2017

Markets are more like watermelons.

I've obviously been super distracted, but the market is actually pretty terrifying when I get a chance to look at it. There isn't a day that goes by that I don't read an article about how this market going to blow up. With all the houses being destroyed making us dance with some serious inflation, and the yield curve inverting. And them withdrawing some QE.

Bubbles take so many people out because they go on so long that people stop being afraid. Even a few days ago I felt unafraid. Which made me think - that is the time to be afraid.

Just to let you know how long they take. I bought my rental in October and set out to gut the place. By summer of the next year, things were starting to look super sketch. This would be two years into the recession. By October of that year you couldn't sell a house at any price. Recessions used to be three years tip to stern. You could set your watch by them. But really it took another 4 years before the market had completely fallen out and all the crying had stopped.

So instead of an ever inflating bubble, I think markets act more like this watermelon. You just don't know what the last rubber band is going to be.

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