Friday, April 26, 2019

Friday of DOOM.

I know everyone is reporting that things are absolutely fantastic. Which I am pretty much calling bullshit on. It will be interesting to see how long Trump can keep this up. Because I remember when importing deflation was a "thing".

Australia has hit 0.0 inflation and their housing market is effed.  They can't even lower rates because they are at rock bottom.

Canada is apparently only growing at .01%.

South Korea contracted at -.03%.

The UK is only growing at .02%.  Which they think is effing amazing because they were expecting to contract.

The only reason China is not in a technical recession is because they did a bunch of stimulus.

Okay... I think I've got it all out now. It feels horrible to say exactly the opposite of what everyone else is saying......but math is math.


  1. Something is definitely up when Wal-Mart is out of tater tots for a week. I'm not even joking

  2. How can that even be possible? Tater tots are literally the most popular food group right now.

  3. Magic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. This part of that article stood out to me. I always love being stuck in 2008/9.

    "Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 0.9 percent. That was the biggest rise since August 2009 and was also driven by increased healthcare expenditures. Spending rose 0.1 percent in February."

    I mean, the economy was horrible in 2009 and President Money Bags was printing money like it was going out fo style. So I'm not sure that is anything to brag about. It just makes me feel more and more like we became frogs and just adapted to lower economic conditions.

  5. U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in more than 9-1/2 years in March as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles, but price pressures remained muted, with a key inflation measure posting its smallest annual gain in 14 months.

    But consumer spending hasn't been this high in almost ten years and they are BUYING cars. The housing market prices are going down. To me that means the market is settling down from the insane prices and toxic mortgages and then splitting them up and SELLING those to people.

    AS far as I am concerned...the housing and real estate prices are STILL way too high.

    So, for people 'flipping' houses they are going to have to realize that their game of 'purchase options' and then inflating it.....
    is OVER for now.

  6. Okay.

    I'm still not buying it. I notice all the zero down zero interest car loans are back. So, they are goosing the market. And I think that is a misleading headline. The latest data I can find is sales are back to October levels. After being down for two months. HERE. Maybe you have better data?

    And ultimately - NO president calls for a 1% rate cut if things are fine. Real Estate aside. I think people are ignoring a lot of bad data. Like Samsung profit down 60% and Apple profits down. Tons of no profit IPOS. Credit card charge offs have risen.

  7. If you have a Baen's Bar account you could join the discussion we are having on it..or I could sent you a pdf of the discussion.

  8. Oh. Okay, Sure. I don't have an account, but I am ~always~ willing to challenge what I believe. You can't get too set in your ways because that is when blindspots happen. And maybe I will just change my mind.