Friday, April 19, 2019

Low inventory isn't causing this.

Home Prices Drop In Possible Golden State Market Correction.

CAR's March housing report found that:

*Los Angeles County median home prices dropped by 0.7 percent while sales plunged 13% year-over-year.

*Santa Barbara County saw the worst year-over-year price decline at a 20.5% drop. (that's a lot of percent!)

*Silicon Valley's was also hit hard with a 10.6% decline in year-over year prices in Santa Clara County.

*The Bay Area also endured significant price drops, with the media home price dropping 4.1 percent.

*The picture was mixed in the Inland Empire where Riverside County saw median prices go up 3.5% while sales dropped 9.3%.

*San Diego County prices dropped 0.3%, while sales were down 3.9%, a modest decline compared to surrounding regions.

*Orange County, median house prices dropped 1.8%, and sales plunged 12.5% year-over-year.

Houses ~are~ selling. They are just taking a ~lot~ longer. And we are in the stage where people are super resistant to lower prices. This is what is causing houses to sit for longer. You can see it when you do a history on a property. Something happened last August and a lot of homes fell out, and things have been struggling every since. I think August was really the tipping point.

This is one reason I don't believe the economy is as strong as people say. Even though retail came in pretty strong I think that is very temporary. Lower house prices combined with Californias crazy gas prices. (UP more than 1 buck in the last month) will rapidly squash that.

I also think flippers are getting absolutely hammered. Having been a flipper once myself.


  1. Capital of Texas RefugeeFriday, April 19, 2019 4:10:00 PM

    Remember this back in 2007-2008?


    Me in 2008: ... dafuq? Diesel is $5.89 per gallon in south metro Seattle.

    I still have the picture of that sign somewhere.

    It cost me well over $100 every time to fill up, and the truck didn't have a very large fuel tank compared to some other trucks.

    Just getting out there from Cheyenne, Wyoming cost me a small fortune in fuel.

    But if you think that's a lot, then you're not ready for overseas fuel prices.

    Six bucks per gallon for regular, and somewhere around eight bucks per gallon for premium if you can even get it? That's pretty normal for the Caribbean, and it only goes higher from there.

    And Hamilton, Bermuda right now? 2.21 USD/liter = 8.36 USD/US gallon ... for 85-87 octane equivalent. Think of the cost per mile in terms of vehicle depreciation and the actual fuel used for a 100 mile round trip and you'll get why I'm selling off vehicles at a discount.

    Hamilton's not cheap in general -- it's twice as expensive to live there than the US average -- but high fuel costs definitely don't help matters.

    Actually, I'll be lucky if I can get rid of all of the vehicles now, and if I'm left with giving a few away, I'll have to shop for some charities that pass the smell test. (Yes: helper animals for PTSD treatment; No: entitled Leftist scum trying to avoid having to do actual and real work.)

    Also, if your starting grades of gas begin with 87 octane where you are, consider yourself lucky ...

    The last time I was in California, I was in an area where the gas started at 85 octane and ended up at 89 octane. My vehicle then pretty much demanded 92 to 95 octane, and so every time I'd fuel up, I had to add a bottle of octane booster which was not so easy to find locally.

    That added a slight but noticeable increase to the price per gallon, plus I had to drive around with a partial case of octane booster until I left California. (This was not such a good idea in the summer.)

    I don't know what they put in the gas there, but that gas smelled like ass.

    It smells worse in Juarez, of course, but not by a lot.

    Speaking of smelling like ass, I hear that Stockton finally pushed through a new gib-me-dats "guaranteed income" program ... dafuq?

    How can Stockton afford it being as broke-azz as they are? Has Stockton decided that the State of California can step in as Government Check Dad or Welfare Dad Supreme?

    "Dad, get me a burrow owl, I'll never ask for anything else as long as I live ..."


  2. Oh..... I remember quite vividly. It will be interesting to see how close to that we get. We are three refineries down.... so.....

    The one in Richmond hasn't been closed this long in 20 years I guess and is not expected to open for a month. Let's see how that goes.... Because Californians think you should pay extra for everything. Only the best, until they get hit. And remember - it is very much the norm to commute for two - three hours these days. Each way. So I expect things will catch on fire relatively quickly.

    As far as Stockton... sigh. I haven't looked into it lately, but when they first floated this they couldn't get anyone on it because people made too much. They would have to take a pay cut. Even homeless! There is a never ending stream of financial illiterates here. So....if I were a mayor I'd just ship my homeless there.

    Those Silicon Valley little eichmanns are behind this. They give them seed money knowing that once you give you can never take away.

    P.S. I haven't heard of the Dead Milkmen in a long time.