Thursday, February 21, 2019

How can everything be fine?

I guess I start to feel like I want to jump out of my skin when everyone is saying one thing, but my stupid eyes see the opposite.

Last night my local news said that California homes sales fell to their lowest level since 2008.

I'm starting to wonder if we ever really recovered, or we just became frogs. Because there is an astounding amount of financial data that is "the worst since 2008". We NEVER seem to escape 2008. And really... the tech world doesn't look anything like I remember it.

It used to be robust and amazing! For Christ sakes Moble World Congress used to be a HUGE thing. Now no one even cares.

Then we have bad news like retail sales. Read: Retail Sales Were So Bad It's either Suspect Or a Recession Warning.

Car sales everywhere are off the cliff. Yesterday there was an article saying they had seven months inventory of Corvettes.

China car sales - China's car sales in January fell 16 percent, marking seven months of decline. How the hell is China not affecting Teslas sales? China is in a technical recession.

Auto sales in Canada were down 16%.

UK car sales down fall most since finacial crisis. There is that pesky 2008 reference gain. I read a rumor that people had all but stopped buying cars in the UK. I don't know if it's true or not.

Philliphine auto sales fall 15%.

Houses in my city are sitting for 5 months easy. Cars, retail, and housing are the three pillars fo the economy. Right?


  1. So I looked again at that Auto Insanity set of lots I often look at near Bristol in the UK ...

    There are a few interesting differences now if you go to the Royal Portbury Docks on Google Maps, among them a bunch of empty lots as well as fewer vehicles in the lots that are full.

    The auto auction place north near Cribbs Causeway has an empty lot, but two lots associated with companies that sell parted-out vehicles have full lots. Copart's lot is at capacity, for instance. Over at Cribbs Causeway mall itself there are fewer areas that have cars parked in outer lots as excess overflow, and because the Vauxhall lot is full, those are probably Vauxhalls (which are essentially Opels built with "British Pride" and a lot of German parts).

    Honda recently announced that they're going to phase out one of its UK plants, so it's not a surprise to see the Honda distribution center near Copart is really light on vehicles right now. Mostly that plant seems to make Honda Civic cars, so it wouldn't be a surprise for that plant to close much earlier than the announced date of sometime in 2021.

    I've kept my eye on that area ever since I picked up the former expensive toy which is now someone else's toy to enjoy. (Ultimately I turned out to be a rather steep discounter and importer of a certain British automobile for someone else's needs, which is something I'm not likely to do again, even if it was some fun while it lasted.)

    The Caterham SV170, however ... that's not just a vehicle, that's a hobby, especially if you purchase it in kit form. :-)

  2. It seems to me there are a lot less ghost lots too. Maybe the numbers are a trailing indicator? You imported that thing into the US? It's a very Bristish looking car. What makes them so fun for that much trouble?

  3. Part of it is the foreign companies now are starting to have to deal with american ones that are moving back?
    Yes, it's bad, but the market is staying up because of major differences than 2008.
    2008 was junk bonds and selling toxic loans.
    Now? it's staying up because some people know that if they hold on, the American business situation WILL improve through Trump's policies. Just having OIL be so low vastly improves the outlook on business and everyone in the U.S. (except NYC and f*cking California-California could turn gold into turds)