Oooh. It's gonna be a nail biter.

Inflation is still running hot-ish. But raising rates cause more bank pain. This guy is right. It could collapse the WHOLE system world wide. Europe was in negative interest rates a few years ago. Everybody going to get hit because the banks were doing nothing wrong. 

They were doing the prudent thing at the time and circumstances changed. Root on their demise at your own peril.

Everyone woke now?

It's weird because three months ago - no one was talking about bank failures. "Now everyone knew what they were doing was risky." Said in the most sarcastic way. And I know this because if anyone would have said these bonds were going to collapse the banks, I would have said - wait what?

I was watching this whole thing and even I didn't realize it was going to collapse the banks. I was only looking at it from the real estate sector because I own a house. I don't own a bank.

I also find it weird that no one wants to blame the FED for hiking rates at the fastest pace in history. 0.25 to 4.65% in one year. The final pin was probably when the FED said they were going to hike faster. The banks probably had to pull the pin.

At least there is no more talk about this stupid soft landing no landing. I think we've landed.

It's almost like these finance guys are rooting against America.

"As I have written about extensively over the last year, the global economy is dividing into two. On one hand, you have the West and our printing-press-based Central Banking policies. On the other hand, you have a growing constituency born out of a maturing Russian and Chinese alliance, now also inclusive of India, Saudi Arabia, and other nations. The petrodollar is dead, China and Russia are openly hoarding gold and some fund managers believe that Xi and Putin know that the West is running a ponzi scheme."  Source.

Why else would you post this utter garbage about these countries and ignore the banking crisis in China? Just a couple of days ago they started easing because their property market has been in collapse for about a year. Read: China makes surprise rate cut to boost banking liquidity and the economy. They are literally blowing up ghost cities they built in the 2008 era. Maybe they can print enough money to built them all again.... but I doubt it.

Additionally, I'm not sure India is going participate in this new alleged love fest. There are literally skirmishes on the border on India and China all the time. They are not exactly friends. Why does India need those those retarded monkeys? It makes more sense for them to side with us because we want to move new plants there.

I guess I'm just really frustrated at how paranoid in all the wrong ways Americans have become. Apparently all you have to say is a few trigger words like "digital currency"  and WEF and people can't even think straight. Like when Zerohedge says this:

"Andy lays out the thesis “that the world is poised for a monetary reset which would result in the BRICS having their own reserve currency, likely backed by gold, and how this goes hand-in-hand with de-dollarization trends that are currently unfolding”."

Why would the BRICS have their own reserve currency? There is not a one of them that is doing better than us. And we aren't doing great. I'm old enough to remember when the Euro was going to be the reserve currency!

Everyone seems to think because Xi is meeting with Putin we are toast, when exactly the opposite is true. The only thing John McCain said that was right, is that Russia is basically a gas station masquerading as a country. They don't really make things except weapons. And I'm not even sure they make those anymore. If they did, I'm not sure this Ukraine thing would be more than a year old now.

Russia NEEDS China because Russians need "stuff" that China makes. China needs Russia  because demand in America has fallen off a cliff. It is very hard to find work in China right now. And ultimately... China and Russia are both Alphas. That fake friendship will be put to its test soon enough.

But.... if those pay per word click bait blogs can rile you up, they get to pay their rent.

Whole lotta phonies right now.

(orignal post)

I was spitting posts out like this about every three weeks and even I didn't think the banks would fail again. I just thought a lot of homeowners would be in a lot of pain. Like I was during the first housing crisis. I lost 40% of my homes value.

I'd also like to say that the roving gang of "go woke go broke" are going to get their asses handed to them. This is an asset inflation bubble just like the housing crisis. Everyone gets hurt. 

In January, literally  no one was concerned about housing. I was a nut.

It is super cute to see tons of people say - those rich people shouldn't have taken their money out causing a bank run. But also - they were stupid to keep their money in that bank, they knew they weren't insured.

Everyone is an expert in hindsight.

Sept 23 2021 interest rates are at 2.88. We've just gone through one of the most significant disruptions in history. 

Why would any bank think interest rates would double in one year? And why does everyone think it's "just that one bank"? I mean, Europe was buying bonds at negative interest rates!

Just on Saturday all my twitter finance guys were saying they didn't think it was going to spread to ANY other bank. Which made me rethink how much I trust them. Maybe they are lying, or just lying to themselves. It a popular thing the past few years.

Just just wanted to post this because people seem to think that bank was corrupt. Even I thought about stashing money there many times. And I suffered through the housing crisis. That was an extremely SAFE bank.

I think America is going to be on this downward track until people stop rooting for the demise of literally everything. Oddly, they seem to think they won't get splash back.

Now that I have gotten time to digest what happened to Silicon Valley bank, I have to say that it's super infuriating how the Fed destroyed this super prime bank up. If anyone thinks that can't happen to their bank, I'm here to tell you that if those people (the richest people in Silicon Valley) got hit - EVERY OTHER BANK IS AT RISK. All of these banks were pushed into doing the same things by the FED. It was the only place they could make money.

In early 2021 it was probably sensible to buy long term dated bonds. NO ONE could have predicted that any President would make an executive order that houses could not be foreclosed upon which caused people to spend with reckless abandon. It had never been done before to my knowledge. This is the catalyst for inflation. Pure and simple. People felt house rich. All the old timers will remember this from the housing crisis. Very same dynamics.

People love to hate on the rich, but these people did nothing wrong. Now they can't meet payroll. It's just so maddening how the government keeps fucking over businesses and people just shrug. Everyone will eat their words soon though. 

On the right side it said - everything is real. But for this moment I want to pretend that nothing is real because on Monday everyones' life changes.

It is outrageous this was allowed to happen and that people were too greedy to be sensible. . 45% in TWO YEARS!

Mission accomplished.

Over the past five months there have been numerous articles about the Fed hiking until something breaks. And now we have our first break. I think they thought the labor market would break first... but....there are obviously less people alive and capable to fill those positions.

We have also reached the stage where every time they say something "is not" something else - it absolutely is. 

"Silicon Valley was heavily exposed to tech industry and there is little chance of contagion in the banking sector similar to the chaos in the months leading up to the Great Recession more than a decade ago. The biggest banks — those most likely to cause a systemic economic issue — have healthy balance sheets and plenty of capital." (emphasis mine and LOL) Source.

I'm still trying to understand the details, but it looks like a combo of a bond problem and deposits drastically falling. Which I imagine is every banks problem right now. Silicon Valley Bank was not subprime. Even I thought about using it from time to time. They were very stable through the housing crisis.

It's unknown if the Fed can stop raising. There is still way too much money chasing to few goods and services. And just because the too much money element is taken away, doesn't mean you get more goods. 

I was just in Best Buy this weekend and wound up taking pictures. My second store because the one in Santana Row freaked me the hell out. I even asked them if they were remodeling because the one close to me just did.

Best Buy right now is looking like Fry's did when I started taking pictures. If I didn't know better I would think they were going out.

China is a complete black hole right now. They are in the middle of a collapse and the people I normally follow are coving the US. But from what I have seen, reopening China is pretty much a failure. And if y'all remember...... during the housing crisis China started building all those Ghost cities which pretty much saved the global economy. Now they are literally blowing them up. China is not going to be there for you this time. 

This is global.

I have said since the beginning that just because the economy is open doesn't mean it is saved. People believed a lot of lies over the past three years, and now they get to live with those consequences. All of those FOMO people are FUCKED.

Everyone better pray this is not true.

Source. I don't know why the chart is structured this way. 2023 is on the left.

This would mean vastly more people than I ever imagined are going to be in negative equity. Prices need to fall to the trend line, and I bet they overcorrect.

But all the media tells me this time is different.

I thought you wanted to burn it all down.

NBC Reporter Goes To Crimea, Shocks Viewers By Telling The Truth.

"NBC News journalist Keir Simmons recently went to Crimea and reported that most Crimeans are pro-Russia."

It seems the only place they want to burn down is the US. Republicans used to be the party of freedom, but now they are only the party of freedom to infect their own fellow man.

I am completely astonished that conservatives are spitting out this propaganda now. Everyone knows people in that area are not free to speak their minds. And why do we even care what the orientation os the people in Crimea are? It's stolen land.

If I'm Zelinsky, I'm taking back Crimea, and toppling Russia if I think I can. Why Americans are against this is what I'm trying to figure out. I want to know why conservatives are so invested in keeping Putin in power. Why do we give a fuck? 

I mean, Tucker Carlson is on the news every week supporting Russia over Ukraine, because apparently Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia. Said in the most sarcastic way.

I understand not wanting to send out our sons and money to Ukraine, which is fair. But Russia started this, and now that we see how weak Russia is - why not let them topple? That place is a complete Potemkin village! And if they wouldn't have started this war - we would have never known, and would be left living in fear the rest of our lives. LET THEM FALL!

The state of their military is so dusty, I can only imagine what they nuke capabilities are. It's almost more likely they'd blow themselves up. Yet it seem like Republicans are doing everything in their power to keep Putin in Power. WHY?

Literally worse than 2008.

A lot of people are going to get to find out how negative equity suffocates an economy. All of those people by the red arrow are now in negative equity. And possibly the blue arrow. I haven't gone back to look at the numbers yet, .....but...

Remember these fun headlines: The East Bay real estate market is so hot, houses are selling for more than $1M over asking price. And that is not even in Silicon Valley proper. It's a burb. Do you know how long it takes to make up a million in equity? I never remember seeing this even in the 2008 bubble.

Now we get all these headlines: Home prices set for double-digit plunge in major Western US cities: Goldman Sachs.

"The largest decrease in home prices will occur in Austin, where values are projected to slump 19% by late 2024 compared to late 2022, according to the note. Prices are expected to sink in Phoenix by 16%, San Francisco by 15% and Seattle by 12%."

However, in Sept of last year Mark Zandi was saying this: 

"Outside the Bay Area, particularly in areas that have had an influx of residents, home values are reportedly inflated. In the Santa Cruz-Watsonville area, homes are overvalued by nearly 36%. And in Reno, prices are 39% higher than expected. That’s not to mention Boise, Idaho, and Austin, Texas, which have seen overvaluations of 72% and 61%, respectively. (In Boise, Fortune notes, housing prices have already been cut.)" Emphasis mine. When Silicon Valley goes... so goes the country. Like it or not.

People have no idea the pain they are in for. Trump policies made it so everyone felt "house rich". So they spent money. When you feel "house poor" what do you think happens? The first housing bubble took SIX years, he managed to do it in 2 years. What kind of damage do you think that has on the downside?

I guess I'm bent out of shape with the Republicans because they are just as bad as the Democrats. . I don't think they believe in anything they say. I voted for George Bush, and I think he completely destroyed capitalism.  No wonder no one can figure out the difference between socialism and capitalism!

“I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system…to make sure the economy doesn't collapse.” He continued, “I am sorry we're having to do it." George Bush 2008.

Now... it looks like Trump did the very same thing, and literally no one cares! We have outrageous inflation because of his policies! And money printing. He distorted the housing market in ways we've never seen! A million over asking! Effing outrageous.

I'm mad. I'm so mad. Having said that... I would bite my cheek and vote for him over Desantis any day. That guy is a tool.. Did he really just make it so taxpayers have to pay for the roads and upkeep in Disneyland? On their private land? And what is this Democratic talking point of "making Disney Pay their fair share in taxes"? Is Disney evading taxes?

All I know is that Republicans are starting to look a lot like Democrats.

Nature is healing.

It's been a pretty wild ride since New Years eve. Even I was becoming concerned that if we had another dry year we might all die.

We've had eight atmospheric rivers. My town flooded in parts which I didn't post because I don't give an eff right now. My house almost flooded. I had a sump pump on the ready. 

Now... snow, which has made everyone happy. The reservoirs are full again. Except for maybe Shasta. 

I guess everyone will have to find a new way to hope we all die, because the water thing is torched. We good now.

Parking deck finds.

Dear Republicans.

Mainstream Media Continues To Push False 'COVID Heart' Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths.

I know you have to push this bullshit, because you convinced everyone in the world to become infected - but this article is NOT a false narrative. IT IS THE TRUTH!

COVID damages the myelin of blood vessels causing oxygen to not be able to get to parts of the body. This is a fact. I just am so frustrated at the mental gymnastics people have do to avoid this information. This causes a cytokine storm, which is basically your body attacking itself. This can cause blood clots in ANY part of your body. SARS2 damages your heart! It is well documented BEFORE the vaccine.

The spike protein in the virus is ALSO in the vax. The spike protein is the problem.

It is frankly unbelievable that people are still writing articles like this for click money. People can see what is going on in their own families. You are not going to win this battle. 

And additionally, if what I am saying is wrong - why all of a sudden are people dying? What's the explanation? AND - why is the government not trying to find out the reason why?

Also... I just clicked through his links because I know most people don't. My husband doesn't even read my links. The study cited is of 731 health care workers. This is what the article called "thoroughly debunked". This guy is sacrificing your health, so he can pay his rent. Just so we are clear.

Double also - To get to "this debunked study", he sites an article from May 2021. Before the vaccines were really out, and before they were forced to even admit that you can get Covid over and over again even vaccinated.

ZeroHedge is a complete garbage person for doing this.

Chaseable

 

This thing passed me and I wasn't sure what it was. So, instead of making the left I was going to, I got in the right lane to follow it, Almost immediately I had regret because I thought it was a McLaren. Meh.

I wasn't able to make a u-turn where I was, so I wound up following it for a few blocks, and realized it was a Masi I've never seen. Masi's never make it to the blog anymore.

I wasn't really able to get great shots. But I guess we at least get new Masi's.

UPDATE-  MR S. says this car is a Maserati MC20 "Cielo". MSRP 216K. It was at Pebble Beach this year. Now I wish I would have stalked it for a bit longer and got better shots. I mean.... that car in the wild is BOUGEY.

I thought I'd gotten most of my anger out.

Then ZeroHedge popped up with this article. A Zombie Apocalypse Of Morons… Where he says -

"It would seem there is an epidemic of crooks posing as researchers bloggers. I don’t know where they find these people but they ought to be put up against a wall for facilitating crimes against humanity. "

Indeed. I fixed his article for him. I can't wait till we get to the sheer anger over the people who pushed herd immunity for clicks and Wall Street. That's where the pitchforks really are. They are coming for you next ZERO HEDGE.  And Scott Adams, and FOxNews. They were the primary drivers of "othering" people. "It's okay if that person dies because of XYZ.

I mean, I'm a conservative and feel like they just didn't have any ideas, so they said let's make them fight. When the truth finally comes out, I think this will be as big as the holocaust. It's the saddest thing. Most people didn't care about all those dead bodies - but SOMEONE did, and there are tons of those "someones" now.

He goes on to link that article where they blame the unvaccinated for not warning everyone else. And then makes it seem like the site turned off comments because they didn't want to know the truth. When in actuality, there are so many comments saying that that we tried to tell people and were mocked, shuned, lost friends, called nuts and mentally ill. Said we were in a cult, lost jobs or nearly so in my house, that the post probably just couldn't accommodate any more. I know it seems crazy impossible....but I'm telling you. I looked at the scroll bar for that post and was like .....uuuh.

One of the best comments was short and sweet. "you laughed at us, but I guess you are not laughing now". Those are the comments he thinks you should just pass over.  He knows most people don't really read his links. Most people don't click through. Its a fact.

NBC news is now telling people the truth. I wanna say "better late than never". But four years too late is a terrible price in this case. I'm not so crazy about the vaccine part, as there are tons of people who think they have side effects from the vaccine. Just plug in Covid and LUNG into twitter. You will find that day after day people fill it up with the side effects they are experiencing from the jab AND COVID.

I'm really sad about the world. But the anger over how we were treated just trying to warn people is stronger. All I can say is... I'm not built for this kind of death. I always find joy when the age of the oldest person in the world comes out. These days it's around 114. But the eugenicists among us felt those old people shouldn't exist. I'm scarred over the past three years. Super scarred.

This is a brilliant segment by the @Todayshow about the direct connection between catching Covid and the raised risk of a heart attack.
I had to keep pinching myself to check it was real and I wasn't dreaming.
Thank you @NBCNews @ErinNBCNews @DrJohnTorres
Please share widely! pic.twitter.com/z7EqqMruwx

— tern (@1goodtern) February 9, 2023

This guy wins the most delusional tweet for the year.

Money printing is NOT WAGE GROWTH. The illiteracy of this country is astonishing! And I'm a high school drop out.

I know Republicans are trying not to talk about this, but everyone can see with their lying eyes when the spike started. I guess the only saving grace is that all governments over stimulated. The flip side of that is demand will be weak everywhere.

Instead of working together to get through this awful time in history, everyone just fought. Zero progress was made. No records were kept. And Trump only delayed the inevitable because people are unable to keep their shit together.

No sign of recession here.

Said in the most sarcastic way.

The cutest part is where he doesn't understand why China demand hasn't picked up. They are open now ready to "return to normal". Turns out - dead people don't buy stuff, and disabled people don't make stuff.

Shippers have been reporting that things are really bad. Demand really falls off around this time of year, but not like this. I mean... Amazon started laying off in DECEMBER!

We are living in a post economic reality world.

Inside Wall Street's gloom-and-doom racket 

If an 'expert' is warning you that the market is about to crash, check their math.

If I hear another analyst say we are not in a recession - I am going to loose a gasket. Anything under 50 is recession.

I am so deeply disappointed in the conservatives. They have lost their ever fucking minds. When this guy pops up on FoxNews trying to convince you that everything is "fine", and if you don't think so it because you are a doom and gloomer. Otherwise known as someone living in reality.

I mean, the conservatives WHOLE platform is just - don't be a pussy. You are just imagining things. Don't be negative! It so frustrating.

Gastly Pending home sales.

Tip to stern, this has to be the biggest fall on record. Worse than 2008. Well below the trend line from before the pandemic.

It's hard to predict the future right now. Anyones' guess is as good as mine, so I guess that it continues. Every night on twitter I see people talking about the collapse of China's real estate market, and protests over people not getting paid and layoffs because companies are pulling out of China.

I guess the only positive of the pandemic, is that China will not find it as easy to be the SuperPower they once were. I still believe they collapse. This also makes them very dangerous now. Added with the unknown amount of workers being culled from the workforce, it's hard to say wether inflation can come down in any meaningful way. 

As the Fed says - it's going to be hard to tamp down persistently high wage inflation. You are going to have to pay handsomely for the risk these people take. The ones covering all the gaps right now have been worked to death. People are going to find out that letting people die and become disabled is NOT good for economies. 

Who knows how high interest rates will get honestly.  I feel like China doesn't have any money to buy our bonds.

But, this is the world people wanted. I'm just living in it.  You all are super fucked. 

Here is how Sweden feels about your silly hybrid/herd immunity theory.

On FoxNews this morning they had Bob Wacter on giving out really dated information on Sweden and schools. I will just call it propaganda. I read a few months ago that Sweden always knew that kids got SARS2, and they were going for herd immunity. So they lied. I will try to find the article again.

It seems to me that "since everyone has been infected or vaccinated" (said in the most sarcastic way) these deaths should be going down. Sweden is the model.... right?

I think the most depressing part of this whole thing is watching TONS of people over the weekend talking about how that China ballon was probably filled with COVID.

Why would they go to all that trouble when they can just get on a plane? I mean, for christ sakes, why are people so dumb right now? There are ZERO critical thinking skills.

The better San Fransisco in my opinion.

When are people going to get it?

It's the weirdest soft landing I've ever seen.

You can't go to any news site without seeing an article that says housing prices will fall 20%, and Intel is cutting the salaries of ALL it's employees 2008 style. (I'm not linking. You know how to google) I'm betting one million percent this is not just an Intel problem. I think all of Silicon Valley will soon follow.

I mean, it's great Trump made it so the Democrats couldn't spend that much money, but the snap back is going to be gnarly. He blew a big beautiful bubble. Said in Trump talk.

Everybody wanted to save the world until they got a chance to.

Then they said - JK. Too hard.

Mass death of seals raises fears bird flu is jumping between mammals, threatening new pandemic.

"Avian flu has been found in seals that died a ‘mass mortality event’ in the Caspian Sea. Now scientists are investigating whether it is the first transmission of the virus between mammals in the wild"

I literally read articles every day about the bird flu. And it's getting kind crazy. It's jumping into a LOT of different species. And bird flu has a more "unfavorable" death rate.

And if anyone were wondering..... yes. Monkeypox IS still out there. New Zealand seems to be having a weird pop. 

This old shell game is back.

 

Looks to me like Tesla is planning to put a *bunch* of cars into cold storage.

I care so little about this that I don't even drive by the plant anymore. But, I found it interesting that at this mall, they were unloading cars and had basically blocked off the whole lower area of this parking garage.

I guess I will be shopping at this mall in the next few weeks to see how this budding ghost lot progresses.

If anyone had known before that you could just build a bunch of product, and just store it until people bought it. I think most businesses would be astounded. It is a marvel to watch. I mean... he doesn't have to build cars. He makes all his money on carbon credits. This car thing is just a front.