Tip to stern, this has to be the biggest fall on record. Worse than 2008. Well below the trend line from before the pandemic.
It's hard to predict the future right now. Anyones' guess is as good as mine, so I guess that it continues. Every night on twitter I see people talking about the collapse of China's real estate market, and protests over people not getting paid and layoffs because companies are pulling out of China.
I guess the only positive of the pandemic, is that China will not find it as easy to be the SuperPower they once were. I still believe they collapse. This also makes them very dangerous now. Added with the unknown amount of workers being culled from the workforce, it's hard to say wether inflation can come down in any meaningful way.
As the Fed says - it's going to be hard to tamp down persistently high wage inflation. You are going to have to pay handsomely for the risk these people take. The ones covering all the gaps right now have been worked to death. People are going to find out that letting people die and become disabled is NOT good for economies.
Who knows how high interest rates will get honestly. I feel like China doesn't have any money to buy our bonds.
But, this is the world people wanted. I'm just living in it. You all are super fucked.
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