Tuesday, March 26, 2019

We are ~totally~ heading for a recession.

‘There’s no way’ we’re headed for recession—five experts on the bond market’s warning sign.

I think we have reached the phase in the cycle when you have to start reading the news opposite way. Every day I wake up and people are trying to convince me we are not heading for a recession. They say we can't import a recession. Not gonna happen.

Honestly, I don't know how things can feel so good when economic numbers are about the same as they were in 2008. Minus all the housing bloodbath. We are frogs indeed.


  1. Capital of Texas RefugeeTuesday, March 26, 2019 6:43:00 PM

    "... five experts on the bond market's warning sign."



    "Access Denied"


    So I have a tourism question for you ...

    If you had the chance to go on a tour of CNN right now, would you do it?

    Because I could drive back through the A-Hole from Industrial Strength Grease Pit and Possum Rasslin' Festival North of the Dixie Line and go see that.

    I figure CNN is going to be forced out of business once its new owners figure out what a lying piece of ratings turkey they've purchased.

    I'm thinking I need to hit the gift shop hard because I need gin-you-whine CNN coffee mugs I can get silk-screened with [FAKE NEWS] and stuff like that.

    Christmas presents for the next year or two, ya kno.

    But would you drive a little out of the way just to do that?

    There might also be barbecue involved, but I don't know if this place in May-Rettah near I-75 will do beef barbecue without sneaking in some pr0k on me.

    I may have to try something new. *GASP*

  2. It wouldn't be in my top 5, but how far is a "little" out of the way? BBQ softens the blow, but is the CNN building interesting? Or is there anything interesting adjacent? If I could do a bulk deal.... I might. I'm not sure they'd let me in due to my furrowed brow though.

  3. Where do you think we are headed? Because I have lived in Silicon Valley or a suburb of, for a really long time now. And I'm feeling as skittish as a feral cat. Honestly I'm not even sure of Silicon Valley companies make a profit anymore, it's so fashionable not to.

    Plus, companies have gotten better at shadow layoffs so they don't garner as much attention. At least those stupid scooter companies are going to get shaken out. We need recessions to shake out the phonies of which there is a lot of right now. Or just to shed the old guard like EA and Oracle. It feels about right for some creative destruction.

  4. Capital of Texas RefugeeWednesday, March 27, 2019 3:21:00 PM


    EXACT CHANGE???!?!?!?!?!

    Is this Some State North of the Dixie Line's idea of revenge for "taxation is theft" and "who will build the roads" memes?


    The map said it'd be about fifty miles out of the way overall, so I said, well, fuck it.

    But I didn't notice the little bit where Das Googlemind said I'd be having to pay tolls and to slow down for tolls.

    One good thing is that there was less planned road destruction on the way, so even with the tolls and having to slow down through The Massachusetts of Dixie with insane speeding laws, it turns out to be a faster trip.

    The Massachusetts of Dixie will throw your ass into an actual jail cell for going 15 miles or more over the speed limit. They also like to short-stroke themselves as being the "Home of NASCAR" even though it was founded in Daytona Beach, Florida. (Stayed in that hotel, been in that bar, BTW -- they're nice people, and I'm happy the TV hotel rebuild guy helped them figure out how to renovate their hotel.)

    The trade-off is that I don't go down I-75 this way, and that I will have to find another BBQ place, so I looked around and found one that's a short distance off I-85.

    Still not there yet though.

    I'm a sucker for outlet malls where I can get cheapazz bits of stuff to hack new projects and odd bits of stuff for the kitchen.


    "Cap of Tee, why does your coffee grinder have an ARMv8A processor in it when all it's used for is to run some stupid grind pulsing control thing you wrote in Python?"

    "I just work with the tech I have, and this is my version of the 'pass the butter' machine from Rick and Morty."


    Oh, yeah, a question you've asked, I have an answer to that.

    I've already spent several years of my life living out of hotels.

    That's why staying over in one tonight isn't bothering me.

    My preference is to have somewhere I can cook, and so I don't tend to like Holiday Inn very much. Extended Stay Hotels are OK, but there's a reason they needed a $1+ billion renovation.

    Studio 6 is pretty decent, but you don't see many of them around. There's one in Austin near my old house that's OK if you need a place to crash with an actual stovetop and a decent refrigerator.

    The higher-end versions are just that: higher-end versions. I don't really like giving my money to Starwood Resorts and Marriott if I can help it, not only because I see their hotels as being some of the most broke-azz boring concepts out there despite all of the make-cool design work.

    But since I figure my American health care coverage is going to be shit in the future, why should I hang around in an American hotel for at least $70/night when I can spend a little more and get a lot more somewhere else?

    I lived at Heathrow Airport for about two months once, which is several weeks more than Alain Botton managed. I had a good reason: I was nearby to help make sure a new customer signing on wouldn't have local problems we couldn't work around.

    Nothing focuses the efforts of people working for you quite like the knowledge that the boss is in town and that he doesn't like interruptions for local labor crap when he's taking a few hours to walk the Thames Embankment for exercise.

    Also, I have specific important needs, and for those there's the basement bottle shop at Harrod's. :-)

    Even with the GBP/USD forex conversion totally not in my favor, it was still only $115/night for a hotel within relatively easy distance to Heathrow terminals, with all taxes included.

    That last bit's how they stick you in the US -- the price isn't tax inclusive, and so you don't see the "county option" to hose you down for 50% hotel taxes until you look at the fine print.

    I've stayed in South Dakota motels that were more expensive after taxes than a four-star hotel in downtown Stockholm, a city not known for bargains ...

  5. "The Massachusetts of Dixie will throw your ass into an actual jail cell for going 15 miles or more over the speed limit."

    Good to know! My city however is apparently super fine with speeders because in the last month they tagged someone going 127, and another guy got tagged twice in the same day for going over 100, and then got tagged again for going almost 100. Both of them only got misdemeanor citations and I'm kinda bitter about it honestly. Really effing bitter. Thats' some bullshit there. I should have gotten my ticket in my city is what they are teaching me. Don't speed in Fresno! They won't send you to jail, but ouch they are kinda financially stabby about it.

    "I'm a sucker for outlet malls where I can get cheapazz bits of stuff to hack new projects and odd bits of stuff for the kitchen."

    That ~is~ an eclectic combination. But I can be entertained by stuff like that.

    "I've already spent several years of my life living out of hotels."

    I almost universally hate hotels. I don't sleep well. Between the planes landing and the doors slamming... things are better since I started bringing my own comforter. Once in Ohio I literally had to get up every hour because they don't believe in heat in Ohio.

    So.... did they let you into CNN? I figure they have you on a bolo on for that taxation is theft thing.

  6. Capital of Texas RefugeeSunday, March 31, 2019 5:13:00 AM

    The worst beds in American hotels given the amount of money the company spends on them, without a doubt: Hampton Inns.

    Every night I'm at a Hampton Inn, every day after I have a sore back.

    Otherwise, getting into the building is never a problem ...

    What happens when I'm trying to get out of the building and back to the vehicle, that's a problem.

    It's a boring couple of buildings joined together by a food court with a few gift shops and a very prominent Starbucks in the middle. One of the buildings looks like it is or was a hotel -- I didn't book into there anyway.

    And then there's the tour of some CNN facilities stuff, mostly looking into or overlooking production stages that are protected by armored glass, where you can't take any photos or even look like you're reaching for something that takes photos ...

    I didn't get to go on the "VIP tour", but I've been a VIP in that building before, so I've been on a better "VIP tour" not involving Robin Meade. :-)

    Oh, yeah, I didn't know this about the Robin Meade tour: "Background checks will be conducted for each person taking this tour."


    I can imagine how this would go ...

    "Would you like to explain what you were doing from January 1989 through January 1993?"


    No, I would not like to explain that.


    So about getting out of the building ...

    The parking lot is a rather dark and dank place where you are wondering where your next attacker will be coming from.

    Under Georgia law, my Florida concealed firearms permit gives me the ability to carry a firearm concealed in public as well as on private property where the owner allows it. Except, of course, CNN is full of Leftist pricks, and so there are warnings about how you can't have your guns or any weapons at all in the CNN buildings because the owner won't allow it. (This appears to be enforced by the actual A-Hole PD.)

    Getting in is therefore not a problem, because you're alert and you're going toward the parking garage exit. Getting out, that's a problem, because you're somewhat worn down and you don't remember exactly where your vehicle is.

    So I waited until a gaggle of Actual Touristy Looking Tourists made their way toward their vehicles so I could join their group, figuring that they'd be more appetizing targets than some grizzled older bastard who looks like he actually enjoys the occasional fight.

    GPS isn't a huge help BTW because the parking is shielded by so much rebar and concrete that you can't get a GPS lock in there.

    So yes, they let me into CNN, and I got out without having to inflict serious bodily harm on anyone ...