Friday, March 01, 2019

Now...... all we do is wait I guess.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow initial model estimate shows negligible growth for the first quarter of just 0.3 percent.

If feels like just two weeks ago I was saying that it felt like we were already in recession - but no one was admitting it yet. Here towards the end of the article. And now here we are sitting uncomfortably close to recessionary levels.

It's really weird because everyone is so tuned out. I even heard a talking head this morning say that the media almost talked us into a recession in December. That the media was making up fake news to take down the market to get back at Trump. The market couldn't be horrible because job numbers were up as were pay. To hell that retail, cars, and housing are falling off a cliff.

So.... I guess I am now fake news. Because the stock market is hiding a ton of really scary stuff. Hardly anyone is in the market anymore, so as long as you keep the numbers up... most people think everything is fine.

For many months now there has been  a particularly doomish sector of the market that believes this recession will be like 2000+2008. I'm not sure it will get that bad, but if it does Mr S and I are going to call it the 4008 recession.

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