Wednesday, May 02, 2018

I can't tell if it's clickbait or not.

"A tiny San Francisco property is expected to draw a big price when it sells. It’s the cheapest house on the market right now, but buyers are looking beyond the tiny home’s outer walls. To really get an idea of how crazy the San Francisco real estate market is, don’t look at its ceiling, look at its floor. This house at 459 Ralston St. in the Merced Heights neighborhood is reportedly the cheapest single-family home for sale in the city.

Listed for $649,000, the two-bedroom cottage is less than 600-square-feet and every room needs a complete overhaul. Listing agent Robert Tao said, “We just did an open house this weekend for two days and so far we have about 100 parties walking through. So, it’s going to be very competitive.”

"San Francisco is unique in many ways -- it's small, bound by water on three sides and a wall of hills and a cemetery on its southern border with the Peninsula. There's no way it can expand and yet, as (formerly) one of the most desirable places to live in the United States, demand for housing sky-high. At the same time, however, its Leftist social policies are driving down the quality of life and raising tensions between the city's ideology and its tourist industry, which until the advent of the Silicon Valley baby moguls, is what kept it afloat. Something's got to give, and it won't be a pretty sight when it does." Source.

(Normally I don't snarf someone's full article. But I did this time. They can ask for it to be taken down if they want)

Mr S. sent me this link today and I'm sure he thought I would have a different reaction than the one I had.

The first thing is - I'm sick to death of people calling housing a bubble when there is not enough volume for anything to be a bubble. You all know what bubbles look like right? What is happening is a SHORTAGE plain and simple. Simple laws of supply and demand are in play. That is not to say people won't stop putting up with those prices. But this looks nothing like a bubble. It's a shortage!

Secondly... something quietly happened that no one noticed because it doesn't fit their narrative. The Mayor of San Fransisco died. The new guy they have in place could almost be considered a conservative by California standards. I mean - he's not. But he is actually trying to clean up the city in ways I haven't seen forever. Now these are still early days. Super early. But I think the jury is still out on San Fransisco for right now. I think it's reached peak crazy. But this guy actually doesn't seem to be a politician as much as a builder. I knew nothing about him before Ed Lee died, but so far he's doing some good stuff there.

All I know is that California is changing in little ways and people don't even notice it because they are too bus being petty. Now it's possible I will wind up being completely wrong and the status quo will stay. But at least people can even talk about being fed up with the homeless in ways that couldn't happen under Obama because they would just shame you. And that also fed down to the previous Mayor.


  1. Capital of Texas RefugeeThursday, May 03, 2018 1:53:00 PM

    The bubble talk might have some legs to it, but the bubble isn't in SF ...

    I'm hearing anecdotal stuff about houses getting snapped up in markets where there's been a lot of price stability. Houses in these markets are getting sold just a few days after the FOR SALE signs go up, and if the houses are listed by realtors, sometimes the houses get sold without signs going up at all.

    They're really weird markets too for this kind of thing to happen, like some suburban areas around Midwestern and Rust Belt cities.

    So let's just see where this goes ...

  2. Hmmmm. That is super curious. Because while I can't be sure - I think there are still a bunch of areas that haven't recovered. I even heard there were some places in Sacramento that haven't completely recovered yet. And I suspect Ohio is another. My sister in law is short selling her house and you don't do that if you have equity.

    The cracks do start on the fringes though. There is lag time for gas prices and interest rates. Both of those have risen really quickly.

  3. Wooooow. You rick rolled me on my own blog.