Friday, August 11, 2017


China Warns Trump: "We Will Prevent A North Korea Regime Change.

Trade is the biggest antidote to war. People who trade with each other do not go to war with each other. At least that is how things used be. So I think China is totally lying. But what else are they going to say? They've been fostering this North Korea thing like a drunk Justin Bieber. Hold me back bro!


  1. Capital of Texas RefugeeFriday, August 11, 2017 5:47:00 PM

    You're not reading this in an inscrutably Chinese way.

    "We will prevent a North Korea regime change" doesn't mean what you think it does.

    It means that they won't allow North Korea to change hands into direct American or South Korean control, but that doesn't mean they're not open to a limited form of regime change.

    That also doesn't mean that China won't simply allow a North Korean regime collapse in the wake of US military intervention.

    China has long wanted a section of North Korea that stretches from outside Dalian to the North Korean border with Russia. If China could acquire that stretch of land, China could build a new port that could compete with Vladivostok. Dalian is a good port, but it's inconveniently located in terms of requiring ships to navigate around the entire Korean peninsula.

    As for what would happen to the rest of North Korea, I think the idea is that putting the squeeze on North Korea's size, in addition to North Korea's nuclear testing grounds falling into Chinese hands, would do a lot to make sure that North Korea stays a well-contained but noisy little pest. Direct administration of urban North Korea by China is not a desired outcome.

    So what you say is more or less right, but keep in mind that there will probably be a military and diplomatic angle to resolving some trade issues, much of which will be distracting and noisy.

    A new Chinese port in this "former North Korean territory" region would help North American trade in both directions. Trump simply hasn't figured out how to pitch this limited form of regime change to the Chinese, or that he already has, but he and the Chinese know the optics have to be right for world acceptance.

    Diplomats are liars who steal candy from small children and then tell them it was for the greater good, of course. :-)

  2. That's funny because that is what our current set of tech CEO's do. But that is a super interesting comment and angle I haddn't thought of.