From MarketWatch.
"Not a recession.
But manufacturing is not in a “recession,” as some have concluded based on a simplistic reading of a plunge in the once-reliable ISM manufacturing index and the decline in manufacturing output for two quarters in a row.
To be clear, there is no accepted official definition of what constitutes a “recession” in any particular sector, as there is for the broader economy. Generally, a recession is defined as a significant, broad and lasting decline in economic activity, seen in output, incomes, employment and sales." Source.
I don't know about anyone else, but if we are not in a recession - NO ONE NEEDS TO CONSTANTLY CONVINCE ME WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION. It is self evident.
I tend to believe charts. They are not Democrat or Republican. They are just data. And now all of a sudden we don't have a clear standard of what a recession is! LOL.
The Trump bump is basically reverting to the mean. I thought this would happen a year ago, and it's been fascinating that perception has kept things going this long. Even Regan had a recession.
There was so much money sloshing around the system because of money printing - we needed to drain it and figure out what was real and not real. But to say that manufacturing isn't in a recession is crazy.
Yes, companies have not started laying people off yet. I believe it is because they realize there is a great cost for that and they are holding onto people until they just can't take it anymore.
Prior months were revised upward, indicating that the labor market has been much stronger than initial reports suggested. August’s initial 168,000 was revised up to 219,000. September’s soared from 136,000 to 180,000. Those revisions brought the three-month average up to 176,000.
ReplyDeleteSeems like they have been reporting 50k low on jobs since at least June. June, July and August all bumped up by 50k jobs at the 3 month mark.
Yeah, but Obama was adding 200k per month jobs too, and the economy was miserable. I am of course not saying that things are miserable right now. But I think we have adjusted to lower expectations. No one lowers interest rates if things are great. And there are too many comparisons to 2008/9 in regards to financial data.
ReplyDeleteI do appreciate all perspectives though. Different perspectives are the spice of life. And I don't know everything. Obvi.
I try to urge all my anon posters to pick an anon screen name. I'm not telling you what to do, and I don't care who you are. Most people start out anon here and it's just easier to tell if you a regular or not and reply accordingly.
I am no fan of Krugman to be sure. But it is pretty irrational for the stock market to be up 22% this year. But..... I guess the market only goes up. Put all your money there. The phoney non money making companies can live on forever.
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