Friday, November 15, 2019

Are you going to believe your lying eyes now?

Economic growth is close to zero for the fourth quarter, according to Fed gauges.

Gee - seems like just yesterday the Fed was saying that there no no chance of the manufacturing recession hitting the broader economy. Oh WAS yesterday.

"Asked about the possibility the slump in manufacturing could spill over into the broader economy, Powell said central bank officials had seen no signs of that.

“That’s a risk that we monitor very carefully - we don’t see that yet,” Powell said. “The 70% of the economy that is the consumer is healthy with high confidence, low unemployment, wages moving up.” Source.

I have to admit - I've been to a couple of malls lately in different cities and they are really packed. Even I was starting to believe the consumer would never crack.

I mean, we are not at absolute stall speed. But ...... pretty close. I personally couldn't believe that the rest of the world looked so ugly and that would not affect us. And I guess I am right.


  1. Das Kapital of Texas RefugeeSunday, November 17, 2019 4:33:00 AM

    Have a look at the US/China "trade war" by state: we have maps and charts to back us up, beetches. :-)

    Louisiana and the Carolinas, how could they have their exports to China grow?

    Hogs and chickens, that's what -- the Chinese are dealing with a serious pork shortage and they need a lot of chicken. Even with the US exports, they're still in for more shortages because they've been hit hard with a persistent and pervasive form of swine flu.

    But now let's look at the loss side ...

    Wyoming has a big problem: sodium carbonate.

    The Chinese aren't importing it for making steamed buns, noodles, and some other things that otherwise require sodium hydroxide to prepare.

    That sodium hydroxide may have been used to clean up dirty Chinese crude oil, but now some of it's needed for food production. A potential shortfall in crude oil might have been a problem before ... except now that oil traders are selling dirty Russian crude oil to Asian buyers, those buyers can also use sodium hydroxide to clean it up in their own refineries, and some refiners are now expanding their subsidiary operations in China.

    But that one little thing just happens to be 75% of Wyoming's exports.

    And there's why I don't buy this "every American pulling together" sentimental bullshit ...

    People may still do things because of an established identity, but if things become bad enough, that identity can change.

    Did you hear anyone talking about "The Republic of Western Canada" before the recent Canadian national elections?

    Well, the Albertans have charts and graphs too, and their charts and graphs say that they are 100% subsidizing Quebec and a pretty good portion of Ontario as well.

    The latest Canadian national election put all of the political power in the hands of Ontario and Quebec. Even the BC socialist retards are having trouble accepting that Ottawa's current power structure doesn't need them anymore.

    One last bit though ...

    "The 70% of the economy that is the consumer ..."

    The economy's that much in the shitter that consumer over-spending is driving 70% of it?

    OH WAIT ... this was actually a repeated lie from back during the O'Bozo administration.

    Robert Reich: "The problem is consumers, who are 70 percent of the economy."

    And a lot of it's apparently government spending that the government likes to pretend is consumer spending ...

    Because if this 70% lie were really true, all it'd take is one semi-shitty Thanksgiving-Christmas "shopping season" to kill the economy.

    We've had several, and it's still not happening.

  2. "And there's why I don't buy this "every American pulling together" sentimental bullshit"

    I wouldn't really call it being sentimental. China is waging the same war as our socialist loving Silicon Valley companies. Win by losing. And that's fine I guess if your position is that the company or State will eventually fail and a new one comes in to replace it. But apparently that is not really how things work these days. If we were so lucky to have China lose enough we would basically be going through exactly what we are now. But worse. Since the markets have been distorted in a way that we basically can not live without them.

    But....... what if we just keep going on the same path we have. Everything would just be awesome right? We just HAVE to do business with them. And everything is unicorns and fairy dust.

    But the thing with people or countries like China. They also have other options. They can just stop buying our stuff any time they want at any time they want. Contrary to what most people think- that people just "have" to do this or that. They don't.
    They can do whatever the eff they want. And frankly it's better to rip that bandaid off now rather than down the road when we have no power at all.

    So while I'm sure you are thinking I'm just having a big kumbaya moment, I'm really just marveling that Americans have any willpower at all regarding this. Sort of in the same way I am shocked at the whole Hong Kong thing. That is a very structured culture. And they have made the calculation that they are fucked either way. So they might as well fight. Americans have none of that backbone.

    I really do get your sentiment though and I mostly agree with it. The whole thing is just really fucked. I do really like your last comment though "Because if this 70% lie were really true, all it'd take is one semi-shitty Thanksgiving-Christmas "shopping season" to kill the economy."

    That is a really good point. I mean, I already know that the government is monkeying around with all this spending. But when you put it that way.....

  3. Capital of Texas RefugeeMonday, November 18, 2019 4:24:00 PM

    "... you are thinking I'm just having a big kumbaya moment ..."

    I saw you marveling, you distinctly marveled. :-)

  4. Oooh! Shawn of the dead guy. I'm a bit of of a scifi hostage - but I do like me some red dwarf-eque British sitcoms from time to time.