Friday, November 01, 2019

Who are you going to believe? This guy or your lying eyes?

From MarketWatch.

"Not a recession.  

But manufacturing is not in a “recession,” as some have concluded based on a simplistic reading of a plunge in the once-reliable ISM manufacturing index and the decline in manufacturing output for two quarters in a row. 

 To be clear, there is no accepted official definition of what constitutes a “recession” in any particular sector, as there is for the broader economy. Generally, a recession is defined as a significant, broad and lasting decline in economic activity, seen in output, incomes, employment and sales." Source.

I don't know about anyone else, but if we are not in a recession - NO ONE NEEDS TO CONSTANTLY CONVINCE ME WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION. It is self evident.

I tend to believe charts. They are not Democrat or Republican. They are just data. And now all of a sudden we don't have a clear standard of what a recession is! LOL.

The Trump bump is basically reverting to the mean. I thought this would happen a year ago, and it's been fascinating that perception has kept things going this long. Even Regan had a recession.

There was so much money sloshing around the system because of money printing - we needed to drain it and figure out what was real and not real. But to say that manufacturing isn't in a recession is crazy.

Yes, companies have not started laying people off yet. I believe it is because they realize there is a great cost for that and they are holding onto people until they just can't take it anymore.


  1. Prior months were revised upward, indicating that the labor market has been much stronger than initial reports suggested. August’s initial 168,000 was revised up to 219,000. September’s soared from 136,000 to 180,000. Those revisions brought the three-month average up to 176,000.

    Seems like they have been reporting 50k low on jobs since at least June. June, July and August all bumped up by 50k jobs at the 3 month mark.

  2. Yeah, but Obama was adding 200k per month jobs too, and the economy was miserable. I am of course not saying that things are miserable right now. But I think we have adjusted to lower expectations. No one lowers interest rates if things are great. And there are too many comparisons to 2008/9 in regards to financial data.

    I do appreciate all perspectives though. Different perspectives are the spice of life. And I don't know everything. Obvi.

    I try to urge all my anon posters to pick an anon screen name. I'm not telling you what to do, and I don't care who you are. Most people start out anon here and it's just easier to tell if you a regular or not and reply accordingly.

  3. I don;t believe many economists. Most of them seem to be smoking weed high up on their ivory towers.

    I wrote about how I built a boat as a retreat from the bullshit that surrounds us. My logic is simple. You build a boat with real physical materials and put it in real actual water. If it sinks you did it wrong. If it floats and performs, you did it right.

    Human thought benefits from interaction with reality.

    Lets turn now to one of my least favorite people; Paul Krugman. I don’t dislike Krugman because he’s wrong. Mistakes are how we learn, unless of course you’re Paul Krugman. He follows the classic cop out of simply never admitting you were wrong. This frees him from the feedback that would allow him to learn. It’s not that he doesn’t learn, it’s that he actively built a world where he cannot learn.

    Willful ignorance annoys me; God did not give us turbo powered super monkey brains to sit in the dirt. He wants us to be awesome. Krugman is not awesome and he’s not on the path to get there. He starts wrong, stays wrong, and continues being wrong.

    Because Krugman’s wrong in a way that tells people what they want to hear, they keep listening to him. They continue to think he’s clever no matter how wrong he gets. They are immune to learning and they listen to rapt attention to a man who is equally immune to learning.

    This is what happens when you separate people from real world tests of their theories. You get dipshits like Paul Krugman.

    Paul Krugman in New York Times November 9, 2016:

    “It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

    Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

    Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.“

    Forbes Magazine October 29, 2019:

    “The S&P 500, now gaining almost 22% this year, broke its record high of 3,027.98 on Monday, rising to 3,044.08 during day trading.”

    This is just the most recent in a three year avalanche of good news. I can come up with a thousand such milestones since late 2016. Krugman wasn’t just wrong, he was wrong on a level and depth that expands the very definition of wrongness.

    Paul Krugman, was very very very very very very very very very wrong. He has a Nobel in economics. He was still wrong. He was wrong even if he wears a cape and gets interviewed by “journalists” on TV. No matter how many awards he get, no matter how well he’s treated, no matter how spiffy he looks in a suit and tie… he’s wrong.

    I do not have a Nobel prize. But my boat floats. It tracks straight, steers well, and sails as it should. I have a blog instead of a paying writing gig. But I wasn’t wrong.

    That’s why I recommend boats.

  4. I am no fan of Krugman to be sure. But it is pretty irrational for the stock market to be up 22% this year. But..... I guess the market only goes up. Put all your money there. The phoney non money making companies can live on forever.


    This guy is a Trump hater but there is some valid facts that are brought up

    It gets interesting to me at this point:

    The whole thing is worth watching though.
    Definitely worth watching.