Thursday, April 14, 2016

The economy is in complete stasis.

A couple of headlines stood out to me today.

Did San Francisco's housing market finally peak? and

Miami real estate is melting down.

In the case of San Fransisco at first the news wasn't that alarming. I read that San Fransisco is bringing on new units that amount to about 16% of the total inventory in the city. 16% is a lot of percent. So you expect prices to acclimate. In a very needed way. However the juicy bits of the articles were that sales in San Fransisco were down 22% in March. In the case of Miami, sales were down 21%. That almost sounds like a pattern.

Almost no IPO's, and the stock market being pretty much flat for the year.... this is going to get interesting. Money is slowing around the Valley. Most of the IPO's from last year got crushed. I guess people are going to get a second stab at learning about deflation. Honestly even I'm amazed at how long it's taken to work through the economy. Oil has been falling for something like a year and a half now. Yes, I know it's been up lately on "rumors" not reality. We will see what happens next week because I don't think there is going to be much progress. Oil companies need to pay their bills. Unfortunately some of them will have to die for others to survive.

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