Friday, May 07, 2010

Such irritating tools.

Listen government - it isn't that I don't trust you. But, I don't trust you.

How is it that ADP (which up until this weeks unemployment data) has been taken as a gospel source of data, says only 32,000 jobs were created. Yet the government says 290,000 jobs were created. And not those unconvincing "temporary census jobs". Video here. "Broad based" hiring they claim.

From the ADP website.
The ADP National Employment Report
April 2010 Report

Nonfarm private employment increased 32,000 from March to April 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from February to March 2010 was revised up, from a decline of 23,000 to an increase of 19,000.

Additionally - How is it that google keeps claiming the unemployment rate is 10.2. Here. Surely google must have it wrong. Right? Still, see that button right at the top that says "more info"? When you click it - you get taken right to the website for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Anonymous said...

See 180,000 were birth-death jobs.

she said: said...

I have to admit, I don't quite understand how the birth death model creates jobs. I understand the premise - just not how that gets calculated into jobs. It sounds like a bunch of imaginary bullshit to me.

At any rate - the fight club pseudonym makes me intrigued to read your blog.

Miz Minka said...

Lies, damn lies, and statistics!

Keyser Söze said...

Surely, it should be obvious to anyone with a brain that the "numbers" cooked up by the BLS are bullshit. They just make it up on the basis of their hypothesis about what's going on. And by their own admission they don't know in situations wthl a precipitous downturn.

It's as if they had some statistical model about the weather to tell them what the temperature is rather than, say, sticking their head out the window to find out how warm or cold it actually is.

And of course they've jiggered with the numbers to reduce the rate by something like 40%, like not counting those who'd want a job but are so discouraged they've given up. Surely, those are the most unemployed people rather than not counting at all.

Modern economic policy is a monumental fraud. People like Krugman and Bernanke make alchemists seem downright respectable.