Thursday, May 23, 2019

At this rate we will be in contraction by next month.

"An IHS Markit “flash” survey of U.S. manufacturers fell to a nine-and-a-half year low of 50.6 this month from 52.6 in April. Manufacturing conditions have been soft for months.

Even more ominous, the firm’s survey of U.S. service-oriented companies such as banks and retailers slipped to a 39-month low of 50.8 from 52.7. Service companies employ about four-fifths of all U.S. workers. Until recently they’ve been expanding rapidly."
Source.

We are just above contraction at 50.6. If we fall under 50 we will be in contraction. To put it another way - we are back in 2009.

"The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index, or PMI, fell to the lowest level since September 2009, according to a Thursday report from financial data firm IHS Markit. This was a sign to financial markets that the trade battle could be slowing the U.S. economy." Source.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Doesn't surprise me one bit. The are way too many physical banks being built. What is the purpose to having all of those expensive bank buildings and overhead? I step into a bank maybe 3 or 4 times a year and I don't think that I am out of the norm that much.

Not seeing much value in retail stores either. Why go to a strip mall when you can usually buy an item on-line cheaper and have it delivered in a day or so? I do like to try my shoes on in person though. Also some of these malls are like third world countries these days.

BunnyGoat

Anonymous said...

And just after leaving the above comment, I opened this article: https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2019/05/some-very-interesting-thoughts-on.html

"They are largely blind to the inconvenient reality that replacing tens of millions of workers with robots and software means there is no longer a mass-consumption economy for all the technological wonders, as the supposed solution--Universal Basic Income (UBI)--can't provide either paid work or enough income for the millions who will be receiving UBI subsistence to borrow or spend enough to keep the consumer economy afloat.

Financialization's solution--creating more credit / debt-- simply insures that the UBI recipients will be devoting much of their subsistence income to debt service rather than tech toys."

BunnyGoat

she said: said...

I mostly agree with him. It's sort of why all these no money making IPO's have been freaking me out. No one seems to be making money except the VC's. We part when it comes to automation though. Someone has to make the machines and the software. People act as if machines just materialize. They need to be manufactured like anything else.

Anonymous said...

Tesla version of the Great Cornholio - No TP for your bunghole!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-24/not-square-spare-tesla-cost-cuts-wipes-toilet-paper-some-facilities

Obligatory clip - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCutOI9F8Ws

BunnyGoat

she said: said...

I'm guessing that if you are okay with cornholio you aren't that offended by your pretty face is going to hell.

Did you see they have a gofundme page to help buy toilet paper for employees? It's sort of weird that TP is the first to go in Socialism. Remember this is what Elon himself categorized himself as and I agree. I'm flat our sick of the whining about this company right now. Just turn a profit! That's all it takes.

Rob said...

One learns REALLY fast what to do if there is on tp, you bring your own.
Remember those little tissue packs you can carry around with you? If you frequent places that may be out of tp (like if you spent a lot of time traveling in an RV at public campgrounds) you learn to carry some with you.

Begging for money to buy tp? Things have gone a lot farther down the hole than I'd thought...

Capital of Texas Refugee said...

"No one seems to be making money except the VC's ..."

There are several reasons as to why.

"Someone has to make the machines and the software ..."

Someone has to make the doughnuts. :-)

leaperman said...

AMD might be a good stock option for the short term.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7hofCnniJE

https://www.ontrack.com/uk/blog/the-world-of-data/amd-ryzen-vs-intel-chipsets-better/

https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/amd-vs-intel/

leaperman said...

I wouldn't worry too much yet.

Maybe THIS will show you why:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/foreign-direct-investment

Changes the picture, doesn't it?

she said: said...

Yeah. That doesn't make me feel any better. I think that is only going to happen when everything stops being compared to the early days of the recession.