Friday, September 22, 2017

I think things play out this way.

I think the market tries to ignore the immense of amount of money we are going to need for repairs - until earnings season. When those numbers come in - the market starts to react. That combined with the Fed "unwinding".

Many of us have suspected the government has been printing money to directly prop up the market for a very long time. If they are "going to unwind" all of that....maybe the market freaks out.

You don't just put two of our largest States out of work for a week, and have them spend money on a "hurricane vacation" i.e. hotel and travel, plus having to repair storm damage - and that not show up in the economy.  But until that is quantified in earnings season, we can all pretend it doesn't exist.

In a real world, that's how it would work. Unless the government has total control and maybe the market is just never allowed to go down again.

Also note - October makes the start of what I call "The Christmas Window". Which is when companies start releasing all the things people are going to buy for Christmas. So far I'm seeing a lot of bubkis.

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