Wednesday, January 28, 2015

I'm so sick of this meme.

Fed rates hike a ‘tough call’: Analyst.

Journalists are idiots. There is ZERO chance the Fed is going to raise rates for the foreseeable future. The way other countries are printing money - I bet we will start printing again this year. I'm not going to predict when because that is a suckers game. The simple fact is that our companies have a hard time being competitive when other currencies are being devalued at the rate they are.

The only signs of life in the housing sector were refi's last week. Existing fell 3%. With rates mostly down in the 3.65% range - even I am thinking about trying another refi soon. Rates have fallen almost a full point since I refi'd the beginning of last year. The lower rates get, the more likely these houses are never going to be put back on the market for the life of the loan. Deflation is a very rare occurrence in modern history. One day these rates will bounce back. People know that.

The question that really begs an answer - how are banks making money? Because..... I thought banks made money on home sales and the interest they charge you. I don't see a lot of that going on.

Oil has not stopped falling and is creating severe damage across the world. India for example who arguably HAD one of the highest inflation rate at over 7% is now going for a second rate cut in one month. The first was a surprise cut. Your going to tell me that we somehow are going to not be affected like the rest of the world? I guess we are like magic.

Lastly - most people are starting to figure out that low oil prices do not goose the economy in the way you might think. Deflation makes people act in ways that textbooks don't comprehend. Fear impulses take over. People start hoarding any money they might have because people know their jobs might be at risk. Instead of it being a positive - it actually makes people start bearing down more and spending less.

During the first two years of the recession Mr S. and I would have all these conversations because we'd go out and there would be tons of people on the road. At the time I thought if they were in their cars - they must be spending money. The freeways would be packed and I'd say - where are all these people going! We know they aren't spending money. Still weekend after weekend if you didn't think about it too hard you'd think nothing was out of place. The slide continued unabated for years. Gas of course went higher because it seemed that is the only thing people were spending on.

Looking back on it, they were probably just driving around because that period of time was so dark that you just wanted to get out of your house so you could forget how crappy things were for a few moments.

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