Monday, December 29, 2014

I can't believe the shit they write.

Housing takes a breather: Why that's good.

"The housing market is cooling off, but that may be just what it needs for a healthier recovery in 2015.

Much like an athlete in training, rest is just as important as activity. Home prices overheated in the early stages of the housing recovery, and now they are taking a break. That may be just what is needed to get buyers back into the market this coming spring.
"

Reeeeealllly. Because when I think of the housing market - I think it's just a little overworked and needs a cooling off period. Sales have been falling for probably six months, even as prices continued to rise, slightly.

What you need in a "healthy" recovery is to bring the whole market down - so you can get a tiny sliver of qualified applicants into the buy stream. Said in the most sarcastic way.

This reporter has jumped into my most hated reporter status. Not only with this article, but it doesn't help. I think there is a good chance she doesn't own anything because she seems so clueless. I'm sure the Fed thinks it's super "healthy" for the market to cool off just in time for them to raise rates.

The funny thing is she has a tiny sliver of recognition that rising rates will be a negative, but she doesn't quite put the prices together.

"A few warnings, however, for the new year: Interest rates will likely move higher, albeit remain in an historically low range. In today's tougher mortgage market, small rate moves have a bigger effect than they have in the past because banks require borrowers to have stronger personal finances overall. Even low down payment loans, now being offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are harder to qualify for than products of the past.

And then there is the freak-out factor. Prices in some markets are poised to go negative in the short term. Connecticut is the first state to see that, according to Black Knight Financial Services. If prices were to dip on a national level year over year, even if just for a month or two, that could spook buyers and sellers alike.
"

Okay, what she's telling me that sales fell in November. Are not expected to pick up in December, but will magically somehow pick up next year. Did I mention sales have been falling for six months? Oh yeah. It's right there at the top!

Some States like Connecticut are starting to see prices declines. And that the single thing that could screw this all up is the Fed raising rates next year? Shrug.

I say it again. I dare them to raise rates. You will see all hell break loose that will make 2008 look like a picnic. Remember, there are still around 19% of people still underwater. And these are the big guys. People who could afford to sit in a negative asset for 7 years at super high interest rates.

No comments: