Monday, August 25, 2014

We are now at a tipping point.

Supply of homes for sale rises to 6 months from 5.6 months. From MarketWatch.

Six months is the magical line between a healthy market, and a market that is blue-hu-hu. But really - we already know the answer to this. July had some of the most favorable mortgage rates since the beginning of the recession. It's really hard to figure out how this works out. There is some school of thought that bond holders are tired of not making money on high yield bonds and that the only reason rates are so low right now is because of conflict in almost all other parts of the world. You can see how meager home sales are now with rates very near 4% give or take a few ticks. Any rise in interest rates will hurt buying activity. Vaporise refi activity. Falling prices will follow. And the Fed has no tools to stimulate whatever may follow. 

So sack up. I think things are going to get a little bumpy.

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