Thursday, April 26, 2012

You know I have to talk about facebook.

I have been somewhat critical of Facebook the last couple of months. Read - What if Facebook withdrew its IPO. Normally this would be a ridiculous thing to say. Yet, I'm starting to have a good track record on saying ridiculous things. My feeling was that California was pressuring them to go IPO before they were ready.

In this post from Feb 1, I say the US Facebook market is fully saturated and likely on the decline. Here I laugh about the Instagram purchase because it clouds the revenue picture.

Each and every article I read about California's revenues, has a paragraph trying to convince me that things are bad, but they will be able to make up the difference with the anticipated taxes they will gain from a Facebook IPO.

"Brown pegged the state's deficit at $9.2 billion through that month, and he suggested last week that the problem might be $1 billion or $2 billion worse than previously stated.

The LAO says in light of the dramatic revenue differences, the budget gap may be a few billion dollars worse than Brown's January estimate.

Still, the analyst's office said it is difficult to determine the exact impact of the revenue shortfall because of how state education finance formulas work, taxes on an anticipated Facebook stock offering and differences over how much money the governor's tax initiative will raise."
Here.

It actually looks like tax revenue will come in closer to 3 billion worse than expected. Read - California Daily Tax Revenue. And now it is rumored that Facebook will delay it's IPO by a month. That has to make the state feel a little jittery. Right? Especially with Facebooks profits dipping, and Zyngas revenue basically flat.

Then, there is this trend of looting the companies. Read: Zynga insider activity is all selling.

"With its recently completed secondary offering, Zynga found an innovative way to allow its top executives, early investors and other insiders to sell off their stakes — despite IPO restrictions designed to prevent it.

As they sell, common shareholders unwise enough to have bought IPO shares in the company have watched their investments fall through the floor."


I think one of the commenter's in this column said it best. "Just another day on Wall Street....used to be you went public to build the company...now you do it merely to rip off investors. "

Facebook apparently, is also trying to change the rules to be able to sell early. Happy IPO'ing!

No comments: