Wednesday, January 20, 2021


"The Biden agenda is expected to result in a faster-growing economy, a stronger stock market and higher interest rates in its first year."

I sort of enjoy seeing people be poor winners right now. For they don't know what they have done to themselves. Laugh it up now. 

Zero stimulus will get to people like they think. It will all go to bail out the banks. Like the Obama. I mean, how long can no pay-  OK - last? Trump must have shoved a hot poker up the butts of bankers because pretty much no one lost their house under Trump. Layoffs have been relatively subdued. And the stock market is at an all time high and DELIRIOUSLY OVERVALUED. 

That will all change this year.

Everyone thinks the vaccine is going to come in and make things get back to normal. But I'm telling you that if the economy opened up tomorrow, we would encounter a deflationary environment so quickly it would make your head spin. The ONLY reason it looks like inflation is stirring at ALL is because of all the extra costs businesses have to endure right now. If the vaccine is successful, they don't need to spend that money anymore. Those businesses are drowning in debt.

Not to mention everybody is on an extremely reduced schedule. It's going to take me three months to get an oven. And it's not even a fancy one. I'm moving. People are completely delusional if they think inflation is going to run hot. It's not. There will be too much money chasing too few products, but we've been through that before and we can still get "disinflation".

And lastly, some of us are still watching to see how all those virus variants are behaving. Right now all of our numbers seem to be going down, but people are mostly adhering to lockdown pretty strongly. I am watching to see if things are more like Manaus, or.... one of the other countries that seem to have immunity escape variants. Which could really change everything.


  1. And if you ACTUALLY get that oven in 3 months I'll be shocked and delighted.

    I've said it a few times: the only reason sales slowed at my work is because we ran out of things to sell people! Oh not literally, this is Home Depot we're talking about, the shelves are full, but its not the stuff people want. Our appliance orders are months behind, kitchen cabinets, doors and windows, and so on.

    Money's only good for the economy if you can spend it on something. If you're hoarding it, either by choice or because you can't buy what you want, then it does jack for the economy.

  2. ~exactly~ I think an angel just got its wings. ;)

    Sadly the next shoe to drop is what you describe. Last week a 60 year old business in my town went out. But the thing that stuck me was one of the reason they gave is they couldn't get enough product to sell.

    I am hunkered down on projects, but mostly painting. So I haven't really scouted that much because every little task is so extra these days. But it was on my list to see how bad this is. I hear all the sporting goods stores are having this problem.

    I knew last year there was a mad run on ovens, but I thought that would have cleared out by December. But nope.

    At least the stock market is at an all time high. Said in the most sarcastic way. Because that always happens when you have nothing to sell.

    Thanks for the info. I will adjust my project accordingly.

  3. I read somewhere the other day that imports (container ships) from China were back up... it was the blog of a guy who refuels ships in the NYC harbor area, the ships are back.
    Are the Chinese factories back up to speed? I tried to find something on how China was doing but didn't have much luck..

    1. I'm probably not asking for the correct search words, or maybe there is a site that tracks cargo ships?

  4. There is somebody I follow on twitter. I think he's called ships and bunker. I can't look for him right now. I'm trying to get a painting project done before the weather turns. Just taking intermissions waiting for stuff to dry. But I will look for him later. I know there are tons of ships shitting around. There was a story a couple of days ago about the best coast. But gotta go back to paint. Look later.

    1. This blog covers the maritime industry, here is and example of a recent article:

  5. Several of the blogs I follow were commenting over the summer about how bicycle shops were going out of business, shops that had been around for ages, because not only could they not get bicycles, but they couldn't get parts, tires, cables, etc. And they had no idea when that was going to be fixed. I know of at least two by me that closed their doors, and haven't reopened.

  6. Oh my. I hadn't gotten to the bike stage yet. But over Christmas I bought a mattress and even those were backlogged. And those companies have been on the edge of going out forever.

    I read last night that 700 dock workers in L.A. got infected, so maybe the just don't have people to offload ships?

    It occurs to me now that we have our Chinese puppet that china could just stop sending us stuff and we would be completely helpless.