Wednesday, November 11, 2015

The dollar is crushing it - literally.


Source. One year chart.

I don't know. This is the only thing I can see today. I was pretty amused to read articles about the dollar "slumping" today over yesterday. You see, yesterday the dollar was at 99.21. Today - 98.85. I can't even believe I regularly check the dollar now. It's ridiculous, but it's really hurting our companies. 

I started watching it over the summer when it was at 98.50ish. The latest run up from 94.ish started right after the Fed insisted they were going to raise rates in Dec. All I know is there is pretty nice rental in my city that has been on the market for over 100 days. That is unusually soft for the rental market. It isn't hard to rent nice places. It's hard to rent crappy places. 

One of those brand new houses someone made into a rental has been on the market almost 60 days now. I told you - buying a  new house for a rental is weird, and those people might be shitting their pants. 2 months without income after you just bought a brand new effing house? Average rental time now looks to be approaching 30 days. 

When the rental market starts becoming soft - you better hold on. Even through the whole recession it didn't fluctuate that much. 

Deflation is fully working it's way through the economy now. The end of the year could get interesting. The Fed incessantly insisting they are going to raise rates making the dollar stronger. Which makes oil get weaker. Someone is going to go bankrupt. 

Not to mention we haven't really had any tax selling for a few years. I read over 44% of all stocks are down at least 10% YTD; only 32% are positive for the year; another 77% are either flat or down more than 10%; the Dow Jones Transports index is down 10% YTD; utilities down 3.5%; the Russell 2000 down 2.5%; biotechs are down 18% since late August.  

I think the economy hit an iceberg a couple of months ago. We are in that Wile Coyote phase right now. Just waiting to realize we are floating in air. 



10 year chart.

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