Good.

Apple Drops To Session Lows After Admitting Its Products Would Be Hit By Tariffs.

I will say up front that I am not a fan of tariffs.  I'm a free market trader. Having said that - the real tragedy of the last 10 years is that the administration suffocated the overall economy while letting companies like Apple and Google and Facebook have enormous power.

Apple controls the Apps Store. Google controls the internet. Facebook controls the media. They have made it impossible for other companies to provide any semblance of competition. These companies will try to buy you, and if that doesn't work - they will simply destroy you.

That's what people should be mad at. Basically 4 companies control the internet. And they will tell you straight to your face - we will destroy you.

I hate tariffs... but I hate these companies more. And they have more money than government.... pretty much.

I guess someone is in a self destructive spiral today.

Can you imagine how freaked out all the Tesla suppliers are right now?

Apparently McMansions are back in a big way.

I went through a real estate rabbit hole last night. I haven't really been paying much attention to new construction because it's been moving and I didn't care that much.

It wasn't until a couple of months ago some developers planted 3000 sqft houses in a neighborhood with 1500sqft houses that I started watching new construction. It's just a really unusual thing to happen.

So last night I trolled through all the new real estate in my city and the surrounding ones and found that 4000-5000 sqft houses were being built en mass. I don't know who the market is for these things. This are usually at least 5 bedroom houses. But that wasn't even the scariest thing.

I ran across a listing (new construction mind you!)  for a house that is 14, 300 square feet.

The end days are upon us.

Mr S. said it really felt like 2006 because the houses seem to have all the baller stuff they were doing before the crash. Home entertainment room. Crazy stuff. And I'm not against any of that. I don't have house envy. My 2200 sqft place is bigger than we need. But I left last night feeling like my house was now puny. Before last night it was a decent size.

It seems to me like a certain portion of the market has been misallocated. It also feels like we never learn.

phoney.

"Here's why Ashton Kutcher thinks it's 'absurd' if you have a problem with the scooters that were littering San Francisco's sidewalks".

Let's park a bunch of scooters in from of his house and see how long he thinks it's "absurd". What an asshole. But at least I know who is going to lose money now. I should have known.

It's starting to feel like you can't move a mansion.

I'm think we are much closer to this bubble popping than most people realize. I haven't been this obsessed with real estate in a while. Conditions are changing kinda fast.

I only have one gated community in my city, and it straddles the city next to me. I'm not sure if some houses are in one city and others behind the gates are in the other. At any rate - it's probably our
most expensive real estate. Houses are in the 6000sq+ range.

That development has 9 properties for sale right now. NINE. Multi Million dollar properties.

I think I have to center myself. One property in that development would be hard to move. And usually I think those properties are often pocket listings. So - it's so unusual to have so many up at one time. There might be a 100 houses tops in that development tops

I'm scared. Flat out.

More inland they are starting to offer incentives for new developments.

I think people got the best gift ever with low interest rates - but if there is one constant with people - the never realize when they get a gift, and always overextend themselves.

I think we've reached peak crazy.......

That guy really needed to work on his sales pitch.

There are church groups who send people through the neighborhoods to beg for money. Or collect donations for whatever. They are always from some under advantaged group.

Sometimes you open the door and the guy is wreaking of alcohol. No bid deal though. Until yesterday.

Guy knocks on the door. I wasn't going to answer it, but I eventually did. The guy is practically by the driveway at this point. He stops and says something to me. It might have been something like nice neighborhood. Then he asks - have you ever been to Chicago?

I look at him and say NOPE.

Then he starts pulling up his sleeve to reveal a giant scar which he indicated was a gun shot wound. Then walks back to hand me a booklet and see if I will bite and give him some money.

I look at the book and say - I know you are trying to get money. I'm not interested. Which agitates him. Oh -so you want me to go back to gang banging?

I reply - It's not up to me. He just walks off in a huff.

I was completely shocked. I don't know if that was tailored for chicks because I can't see that going over well with men.

I guess more than anything it sort of pissed me off. I mean, I haven't been shot - but I lived in East Palo Alto during Loma Prietta. At the time EPA had some of the highest crime in the nation. So I kinda felt like bitch - you don't know me.

For sure it's a correction.

I hope you all enjoyed your weekend because on Friday I turned into the biggest housing bear on the planet. I'm fully in the cave waiting to hibernate for the winter. Which might come as a surprise to almost everyone who reads this blog. I think there are very few scenarios where buying a house isn't a good idea. I think the rent trap is a far greater problem than most things that come up with houses.

The seeds for this particular freak out started last weekend. Driving down to Monterrey there was this tiny development. It might have been 20 units tops. At first I was happy because the further away from the core (Silicon Valley) the less things have improved. It was nice seeing something new being built way down there.

However on the way back we were stuck in traffic and passed that same  development again. And I was like - what the hell is up with their Tyvek? Mr S. looked at it and said - yeah. It looks like it's been through a tornado. Which is when I realized that development had stalled and probably has been dead for a while. Since prices have been going up so much everywhere, it's pretty surprising to see a dead development. That never happens in an up market. Only in a down market.

Then last week the media finally caught up to reality and everyone was carrying the price drops. My girlfriend said it takes about three months for the media to catch up and she started seeing this weakness in May. So, we are right on track.

And finally - fully half the properties in my town  on the market are 3000 square foot and above. This is an extraordinarily high level. 42 properties. Those are big houses and don't move quickly. And it looks like the high end is suffering everywhere.

But it isn't just the top end that is showing strain.  Two mobile homes came up in my city. They almost NEVER come up. And one of them actually had a price cut. On a mobile home! That is the lowest end of the market.

It seems we have a lot of cross currents right now. At the top end the SALT deduction. Which I have mixed feelings about. Mostly because really rich people always come out to say - we don't mind paying higher taxes. But it looks like those phonies do. Usually they can get around paying higher taxes some other way and balance it out, but they know you also get stuck with higher taxes and it isn't as easy to balance it out.

At the low end there are higher interest rates. Interest rates have been going down since the 70's. Except for a few blips. And unless this country burns down, you will never see interest rates as low as they were through the recession ever in my lifetime. I think.

We almost went into negative interest rates! That's why I have a nihilist Audi! I wasn't going to pay my bank to hold my money. That's ridiculous. But I digress.

Anyway. Even I might believe we are in stage two of a bubble burst. We've already seen loan officers get laid off. It hasn't been en mass yet... but.. I think things are going to get a little sideways.

There's trouble ahead in the global housing market

Home Depot is the only place to be.

I'm working projects tomorrow so I'm gathering supplies today.  Which is where I ran into all this Halloween stuff. Home Depot would be a funny place to do Halloween.

It's where the axes and chainsaws are!

Your sometimes dose of cultural enrichment.

Artist Red Wolf.  I was really pleased at the dimensionality that came out with this shot. I think the artist would be pleased too. He was a super interesting guy. We talked about photonics, and the materials he used for the colors. It is what they use in the holograms on Canadian money.





This was my favorite piece and I didn't even get the artists name. If he ever see's this shot - I will attribute him.



Artist Michael Gard.



These pieces came out of Feather Fantasies. All made of feathers. And a very clever use of them.





Artist Joan Rasmussen.



Artist Onyx V Crimbal.



Artist Tom Boardman. He's got video of it moving youtube. It's a little overproduced, but dudes love that. It was super hypnotic though.







I will say that ~all~ of the artists were more than happy to share their stuff. I was somewhat surprised by how open they were they were this year.

Except this guy. Time McClendon. I wish I could have shown you more of his work because it really was beautiful.

Since everyone has a cellphone - I figured everyone had all gotten with the program by now. It's impossible to get people not to take photos of your stuff. It's just ridiculous to ask in a public event that you paid to get into. And I get it - there are a million videos on youtube explaining how to do this. Yet not everyone has the right touch or the inclination to copy your work. But you have to accept that people will.



This guy has been coming for years and no one attributes him. But he never shuts you down when taking photos. So essentially the stuff from the top photo is coping the guy from the below photo.  And honestly if I wanted to be a dick I'd just take a long range shot.

It's not okay under Trump either.

"While some may call San Diego Unified's recently acquired military vehicle a tank, the school district says otherwise, and quickly called a news conference to say so.

KPBS media partner inewsource reported Tuesday the district received the mine-resistant ambush protected vehicle — or MRAP, as the Marine Corps calls it — through a U.S. Department of Defense program. It's known as the 1033 program, which lets the federal government provide surplus military equipment to law enforcement. All San Diego Unified had to pay was the just-less-than $5,000 shipping cost." Source.

Look - who doesn't want to own a tank? I get it. But the upkeep on this vehicle makes me think the San Diego school district doesn't understand math.

Forget the upkeep! How many miles to the gallon do these things get? Seriously. I thought teachers were under paid and crap. But I guess not because they can blow money on a tank.

I don't know what is going to happen with Tesla - but honestly,  I can't wait for all the NDA's to expire. If they do. I know of one company that is trying to have a permanent NDA's like the government.

I'm telling you. The stories that come out will be awesome. Movie level awesome. I don't even know anyone that works at Telsa and I know of a story I can't talk about because Silicon Valley is a small world place. We are all terrified of talking. And I'm not even under an NDA. It's not hard to reverse engineer where these stories come from.  I totally believe this.

Tesla CEO angrily headbutted car after safety sensor paused assembly line.

Audi E-Tron.

Single driver cockpit. Heads up display. The inside is super cool.







Closer shot of the heads up display.



Whaaaaat theeeee.

It's a call back story.

Some of you may remember a few months back when I was having weird noises under my house. Eventually we figured out that a cat had been living under there. I don't know what it's eating. We don't leave food out but everyone else has outside pets. I haven't chased him out yet because I was hoping he would keep out the mice.

Mr S. named him Santas little Helper. He's not our cat.

Anyway, a couple of weeks ago I  found half of a mouse in the yard. They took out all the yummy parts and left the head and ribs. Since I'm a big fan of letting nature take it's way, we decided to leave it there overnight and see what happened. And wouldn't you know it? The very next morning it was gone. A perfect circle of life!

Then a couple of days ago I had the sprinklers on and saw this blob of fur. I run into the house and tell Mr S. - What kind of Mutual of Omaha crap is happening in our yard!? The first thing he wants to know is how it died. Was it like the last one? So I run out with a stick and flip it over.

I report back to Mr S. - I don't know. I think they slit his throat. He looks at me rather confused and says - I wonder what is killing them and not eating them. He says - Maybe it's Misis. ISIS with an M. Say it! It isn't as funny until you say the words. M-ISIS.

Again we left it there overnight, and nature did not resolve itself. Maybe he got too waterlogged or we have rabies or something. But wha the hell.

It must be Santas little Helper right? Cats are the only things that kill stuff and don't eat it? These are more like rats though, so it's a pretty big play toy.

Infinity Q.

I could see this car on the road right now. Couldn't get a look inside though.

Byton M-Byte EV sedan.

I assume the inside looks the same (if there were an inside) because when I asked to take pictures they pointed me to the other one I blogged about which was more of an SUV

This model however had lidar on the front and back which seemed to sit in a track.

BTW - that truck in the background is a VW. I didn't know VW made trucks.



The sensors were a little more low key.

This looks awful.

Source.

But, I guess the market only goes up. Said in the most sarcastic way. All we need is a few job losses and we'd be in stagflation, I think.

A large segment of the real estate market is now just gone. Those houses will never move until the person dies. Lots of people are never giving up their low interest rates. It was the best gift ever given.

Now for the future.

The is the Byton M-Byte EV.



It's sort of pretty on the inside. And I can't believe how much the tard in me loved charging docks in the door arms. Free us from the cable!





Cell Phone dock.



I find it sort of fun to hunt down the sensors right now. This is in the column between the doors.





This one is in between the front door and the quarter panel.



Above the window. Though it's hard to see.