Friday, December 11, 2020

This is how delusional this market is.

I was talking to this guy I know and he tells me his stocks aren't doing well all of a sudden. I tell him - be really careful - the market is at an all time high. Which of course he shrugs off because I'm always telling people to be careful. I'm fine with it.

Then he says, if I lose money on these spec stocks it will only be a couple grand. Then he goes...."I missed out on Doordash. It got too high".

I'm like - Doordash is exactly why you should be nervous. It's flashing a huge warning sign for the economy. Of course he looks at me puzzled. So I go on.

All of these restaurants are closing! - I say.

He replies - yeah, but you can even have McDonalds Doordashed these days. 

Me - Have you seen the McDonalds drive through line lately? In San Fransisco 60% of the restaurants have just closed. Whatever percent of nothing.... is still nothing!

As a side note - the ONLY restaurant I see thriving is Chikfila. It's crazy honestly. Landlords are suing them because their parking lots are unusable due to the lines.

One place I frequent in my city shut down the last quarantine. I was JUST in there on Sunday and they said they were going to stay open. Literally four days later they told me they were thinking about hibernating. Which is the new restaurant trend to stay alive. You shut down and preserve capitol. I personally think the just the propane costs would make things untenable right now. Hibernation is probably less expensive.

All I know is that everybody is in the water and specs are going to get killed. Literally every stock I look at these days is up 100 percent this year if not more. This is fucking ridiculous and it going to end in tears. I don't know how.....but everyone is completely oblivious to fear because apparently money DOES grow on trees. Contrary to what my family told me.


  1. I think people are understimating how long it takes to deleverage from your assets. Stocks are liquid but subject to whims. What the pandemic gave to them it will take away. Most Americans real $ is in their home. Legitimately how long do you think it should take to get a house ready to sale? It took me months and i did not have anything standing in my way. Just moving alone was a 2 week ordeal. My neighbor has a for sale in his yard. I ask him what hes listing atvand he tells me his ex kicked him out and put it up for sale. He is going to squat at it and scare off buyers until she officially files for divorce. She will be lucky to legally be able to sell it at the end of 2021. What happens when the moratoriums end and everyone tries to make a run on the house? How can it not end in tears. DF

  2. This is some housing crisis crap right there. People I knew were breaking up left and right. The houses came next.

    I don't know how this is going to work out because it costs the same to own or rent right now. In the housing crisis you could at least downgrade to a cheaper house or an apartment. Now the entry market house is almost as expensive as a middle market house.

    I think the minimum time it takes to turn a house is two months. First you have to find a place to live and then do whatever the house needs. And hope the place sells within 30 days.

    You got out in the nick of time. So happy for you. Genuinely.