Tuesday, January 14, 2020

WeWork was the pin that popped the bubble.

Nothing really gets done in Silicon Valley from October to January, so it isn't that surprising that this WeWork drama has been a nothing burger to date. But I think that is changing.

A lot of us have been trying to figure out if the next recession was going to be 2008 bad, or the Dotcom bursting bad. And it's definitely going to be more like 2000.

All of a sudden in The Valley people feel like they need to turn a profit. What a novel idea.  I don't know which recession that seems more like. Said in the most sarcastic way. Cough pets.com.

Also trash deals seem to be falling apart now because Softbank isn't keen to give out as much VC money.  Just a couple of days ago I told Mr S. that I wondered how They Valley was going to adjust without Softbank.

For at least a year I have been concerned about Softbank before any of this drama. They only started having problem in the Fall. Softbank was basically the only ones with money during the recession and they walked in here and had their way with Silicon Valley. They made some good moves early on with Alibaba and Nvidia. Softbank literally caused Nvdia's stock to double. Chip companies don't trade in the 400 dollar range. That's ridiculous.

And a lot of "Unicorns" seem to be reducing staff all of a sudden because you just can't keep losing money! I don't know what percentage of Softbank portfolio is filled with Lose to Win companies, but I'd venture it's "a lot of percent".

So..... now I guess we get to see what's real and not real I guess.

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