All of a sudden today the yield curve doesn't matter. It just happened all of a sudden. It means nothing. Anyone saying it does matter is trying to take Trump down. And frankly I think this is all bullshit.
Just look at any chart.! Recessions have happened every time the yield curve gets to this level. Even I AM thinking about calling the bank to refi. And I am at 4.50%. I never thought I would get this chance again in my lifetime.
The yield curve has been trying to invert ALL YEAR. Most of us thought it would happen last year. The 3's and 10's has been inverted for several months now.
I blogged it here in July. It had already been inverted for a month at that point.
Banks don't cut rates if things are fine. Hell, a lot of times they won't even cut if things
aren't fine.
Look - I don't have any axe to grind. I just have a lot to lose. So, I am as skittish as a feral cat. But you can't point to one economic chart that makes this economy look fine. The whole world is siting in negative interest rates. The whole world is pretty much in a
manufacturing recession right now. If anyone thinks that splash doesn't hit us - I don't know what to say.