Wednesday, August 14, 2019

You have got to be joking me.

All of a sudden today the yield curve doesn't matter. It just happened all of a sudden. It means nothing. Anyone saying it does matter is trying to take Trump down. And frankly I think this is all bullshit. Just look at any chart.! Recessions have happened every time the yield curve gets to this level. Even I AM thinking about calling the bank to refi. And I am at 4.50%. I never thought I would get this chance again in my lifetime.

The yield curve has been trying to invert ALL YEAR. Most of us thought it would happen last year. The 3's and 10's has been inverted for several months now. I blogged it here in July. It had already been inverted for a month at that point.

Banks don't cut rates if things are fine. Hell, a lot of times they won't even cut if things aren't fine.

Look - I don't have any axe to grind. I just have a lot to lose. So, I am as skittish as a feral cat. But you can't point to one economic chart that makes this economy look fine. The whole world is siting in negative interest rates. The whole world is pretty much in a manufacturing recession right now. If anyone thinks that splash doesn't hit us - I don't know what to say.

12 comments:

Capital of Texas Refugee said...

The yield curve is just the market's way of saying that Trump asssassinated Epstein so everyone would think that The Derp State of The Swamp was responsible and that The Derp State of the Swamp needs to be taken down.

Why else would Duh Liberals running the MCC allow such a thing to happen if these people didn't want this War of the Official Sponsors to take place?

*waits for your twitching and axe grinding to stop* :-)

The upcoming recession is just revenge against Trump's supporters so they can feel the burn up-close-and-personal of the internecine rivalry of the various factions of The American Political Elite, and so all you can do is to watch it all burn.

*waits for more of your twitching to stop*

But how many Black Swans do you really need?

Are you willing to wait for the rest of the REO Speedwagon to come blazing through your back yard?

*twitch twitch* :-)

Will it take decades for you to notice you're on the hook for some of the huge student loans that The Millennials wound up kiting with minimum payments until they reached the maximum number of years at which those are still collectable debts?

Do you need to wait to watch how the over-built and over-funded US military can't seem to commission a new boat that floats, a new instrumentation system that works, or even a new fighter jet that's not the epitome of second-systems software implementation feature creep?

Let's have an honest heart-to-heart talk about Jeff then: thanks to what happened to him, everyone is now a conspiracy theorist.

YESSS BEETCHEZ WE ARE ALL CONSPIRACY THEORISTS NOW.

So relax, enjoy your conspiracy theories, observe the foredeck of the Global Economic Lusitania listing toward the sea, and prepare for the Absurd Times.

As for me, I did not think it was possible to hire all the lawyers, but I've hired a good number of them, and they're now busily effecting the transfer of assets, money, and power so that I will soon hopefully be a newly minted retired person while someone else runs What I Built and What Obama Didn't Build. :-)

Of course, I won't stay retired for very long because I'm already planning my next big caper, but I'm pretty sure it won't have anything to do with electronics or information technology except if I happen to need some kind of instrumentation for whatever happens.

But isn't it odd that I could call on A Truly Absurd Amount of Credit as long as I promise we're not going to pay it back for ten years?

Call the banks, REFI EVERYTHING, and enjoy the view of Slim Pickens riding the bomb down ... oh, and ...

PACK YOUR RICE
ITZ COMING :-)

That's for another Texan friend who may drop by at some point, BTW. :-)

As far as feral cats go, BTW, I've befriended a few, they're much less skittish in general than this global economy's showing itself to be ...

OH YEAH DON'T CRY FOR THE US, ARGENTINA :-)

she said: said...

It's nice to see you back. ;) And congrats on being free. Especially considering.

As for the Epstein thing.....I tend to believe in incompetence over conspiracy - but wow. That is the craziest shit. What can you even say......

Capital of Texas Refugee said...

NOOOO, NEVER BELIEVE IT'S INCOMPETENCE ...

Do you think that Alaric just showed up one day and said to the Romans, "SUP BEETCHEZ, HOW'DYA LIKE ME NOW?"

Romans: "But we will never accept a BARBARIAN to rule us!"

August 24, 410 AD: "OH YOU DON'T LIKE MY NEW EMPEROR? HOW DO YOU LIKE DIRECT RULE THEN, LOL BEETCHEZ."

Americans in 2019: "But we will never accept CHINA leading us around by our economic snouts!"

Play Guess The Date, it's fun!

The Conspiracy Theory of History is the only theory that ever works. :-)

ASK FOR CONSPIRACY THEORY FLAVORED CHEESE PRODUCTS BY NAME. :-)

leaperman said...

Points to consider:

His mansion was given to him for free.
Last raid found blackmail material (it is no longer available)
Where and how did he make his money? Show us the bank transfers. (they won't)
His cell mate was removed
suicide watch wasn't followed
of the two guards, one was a fill-in
Where is the video footage?
How could he hang himself?
What type of ligature marks are on the body?
Where IS his body?

leaperman said...

Oh...
The pedophile island?

Guess who co-owns it?

The CLINTONS

leaperman said...

YOu know what the problem is?

It's all those vimmins that takes's ours preciouses!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RBCvUP8Xnw&list=PLm2jxqspsRAjAjNfz67_0XOzK2AWCPcIh&index=6

Capital of Texas Refugee said...

Leaperman totally gets it. :-)

I figure "they" have alive-and-well Epstein holing up in a hotel in Reston, Virginia where he can be conveniently interrogated ... right across the hall from the room that once held Osama bin Laden himself before he died from diabetes complications.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES ARE THE ONLY VALID HISTORICAL THEORIES
PROVE ME WRONG

*sits behind my fold-up table with a huge smile and a Cuppa Covfefe*

:-)

leaperman said...

Texas,

http://adaptivecurmudgeon.com/2019/08/14/can-a-tinfoil-hat-wearing-blogger-be-insufficiently-paranoid/

leaperman said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=38&v=MzKLs8l9UPM

this is for she said

she said: said...

I think he is absolutely lying. He's the designated cheerleader right now. His premise is that we have to lower interest rates because the rest of the world has done it? What rubbish. Many parts of Europe have been in negative rates for years. We didn't have this view last year.

Whenever a politician floats an infrastructure plan - that is code for - we don't see the normal avenues of growth and the government is the only game in town. People have bought all the cars they want. There are not enough houses being built to pull demand up. Companies are only meeting their financials because they lowered estimates.

And ultimately - we are getting close to the Christmas window. What new stuff is out there that we didn't see last year?

If someone can show me where growth is going to come from, I'm willing to change my mind. I do appreciate views on the other side though. But I don't believe that guy at all.

leaperman said...

Never said I did either. Just thought it was interesting.

she said: said...

Oh! I completely misinterpreted that. Sorry. It's just I've gotten so used to people trying to convince me things are fine I think I've become reflexive. The more they try to convince me - the more it freaks me out.