Tuesday, May 20, 2014

They are lying....... unless.

"U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a Federal Reserve official said rate hikes might come sooner than expected and Staples and other retailers offered disappointing quarterly results. " Source. 

Honestly, this is the most projected crash in history. Everyone is just waiting for the trigger. We all know it's coming. We just don't know what day it will be. I imagine soon, because "Sell in May Go Away" is a pretty sound yearly constitution. Volume becomes really weak and crazy things happen. Don't believe me though. The earnings of companies have been really shit. And for the life of me - I don't know how Home Depot can still be hurting. I could have made their quarter just on the crap I had to buy there recently. Yes, I'm being somewhat dramatic.

Bullshitters can only bullshit each other for a certain time. I read three articles a day now telling people to prepare for a very sharp correction. And I believe them. They are all tapping to each other like ants getting on board and coordinating.

The only way rates are going to rise is if the Fed raises the interest rate banks pay to hold reserves at the Fed. I heard a rumor recently that the government in it's infinite wisdom, might do this to force banks to lend. To whom will be a really interesting question. Banks are barely getting any traction now in the low 4% range. Presumably from the small percentage of people still underwater. Because really... where is the refi segment going to go? Everyone that can refi at very low rates - has. Put a fork in that market. By keeping rates this low for this long, they've pretty much killed off one of their important sectors. That will put a stagnation into the market for a very long time.

Even if President Money Bags pokes them with a stick - where are the borrowers going to come from? On the other hand - if they are magically there - I would start fearing savage inflation. All that money they buried in the back yard as reserves will come to light. Once the health care sector caves I think inflation will be full speed ahead. It's almost the last sector that hasn't been cut to the bone.


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