The economy will recover on it's own.
It's hard to believe my renter has been in my crapshack for nine months now. We've hit a reasonable routine. He doesn't always pay on time - but he always pays by a certain time. And, he's never bounced a check on me. It's okay enough that I'm starting to believe being a landlord isn't so bad. Yet, I only made a commitment to him for a year.
The last six months have been enormously stressful. I'd never planned to hold that house more than a year. I've held it for almost a year and a half now. By October I was jumping out of my skin, and there wasn't a moment I didn't want to sell that place.
I never really imagined a marketplace where you couldn't actually get a loan. I figured I'd either sell at a profit, or take a loss. Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. I didn't really see it as any different than opening a restaurant. And honestly, I still don't. Our nation is built on risk. People show up here with the clothes on their backs and nothing more.
They take risks. Build businesses. Risk everything.
Yet, never knowing if layoffs were going to hit my door, and pretty much everyone in the valley taking pay cuts to save co-workers has taken a toll on me. But, you never learn anything in the good times. If you make it through, you are so much stronger. I don't know yet if I'm stronger. However the last couple of days have led to some interesting developments.
Reports from all over - that houses are getting multiple offers. Most notably Mountain House. News story
here. I wrote about it here in my
Modern Ghost Town post.
What makes this especially interesting is that Mountain House isn't tied to anything. It is basically a community in the middle of farm land. In which farm workers can not afford the houses. You'd have to drive and hour in both directions in order to find any high paying jobs.
This morning I went to check on the inventory in my own city, and was shocked to find listings were down by maybe 40%. I'm sure of it, because I'd written a note to myself on March 9th that showed the lowest price listed in my area. And the amount of homes on the market.
It was such a dramatic drop I didn't actually believe it. So, I drove around today. Houses that had been on the market for upwards of 200 days now had sale pending signs. There were also a lot less for sale signs in general.
Yet, I'm still reading about "the deepening worldwide recession". That kind of real estate activity does not show a deepening. It shows that when banks are willing to lend, people still have enough money to buy. It makes me wish I would have listened to myself.
From October."Honestly people - normally I have a big crush on economists. But, cut the bullshit already. We are being told this is one of the greatest depressions ever. But, oh yeah...it could be over by the first couple of months 2009. Seriously? What pussies we've become. Growing up, depressions lasted years. Not months. Unemployment is expected to rise to 10%. Which isn't great. But, that would make it the worst depression since.... the 1980's."Yeah - I turned into a big giant wussy. I'll admit it. Though, it sort of looks like the economy is trying to right itself. Let it also me noted - I called 30 of the last 30 bottoms. They
were all were bottoms! Just not
the bottom. Just sayin'.
Not saying that everything is better - only that there are hopeful signs. Plus, people seem to be out in mass.