Friday, June 28, 2019

What happens next?


I guess we have officially reached contraction. Demand for literally ~everything~ has been pulled forward. So I don't know where growth is going to come from.



  2. Within the review there are particular notes for additional interest. First, the June manufacturing employment index is 54.5, very strong; (last month 53.7). In essence manufacturers are hiring at a fast rate. One cause is better weather (seasonal), and the majority cause is filling the jobs from new production facilities coming on-line.
    Secondly, and very interestingly, the June price index is 47.9 (deflation) and reflects a very significant drop in manufacturing material prices from May’s 53.2 index. This is exactly the opposite result of what all financial media were claiming would happen based on tariff predictions. The prices of manufacturing materials are lower in June, significantly lower, which will ultimately mean no higher consumer prices.
    A key point to note is how lower prices are not driven by excess inventory. The inventory index in June is 49.1 (lower than May’s 50.9). So it’s the actual material cost and production efficiencies driving lower manufacturing prices.
    China is paying the tariff, and getting more and more anxious about the trade war that they didn't think Trump had the huevos to start. He's winning, the American economy and Main Street is winning, the treasury is winning, and our enemies are losing. Winning.

  3. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that is a trailing indicator. Almost every economy on the planet is in official contraction. This is about more than China.

  4. she said,

    All the more reason NOT to be dependent on other countries. Sell out, not buy out.

    Plus, then they have NO hold on us.