Wednesday, April 05, 2017

I haven't talked about real estate in a while.

I get a lot of stuff from agents because they are always "trying to be my friend." I've been watching this trend for a while, but today I got a little freaked. There is ONE house on the market in my neighborhood. With two pendings. For perspective,  most of the time I've owned my place there were usually about 15 houses in both categories. The number has been coming down for a few years, but it was a few months ago that I started seeing only three houses for sale with a handful of pendings. You literally start wondering what real estate agents are going to do with their time.

So - I had to go through the MLS today and it's the most distorted market I've ever seen.  I would honestly say there is no affordable inventory at all anymore. One of the most fascinating things about the recession is how the low end market has come so close to parity with the middle market. For instance when we bought our rental it was 50% of the price my place was. Now that same house is 25% away.

My house gained almost no equity until about the last year, while my rental - I have 100 percent equity now. Even so, I was quite taken back by the prices people are paying for things under 1000 square feet. To give you an idea, 1 bedroom houses are up 18% YOY.

Two bedroom houses were up 3.7%. Three bedroom up 5.3%, and four bedroom up 4.4%.  I've never known a market like this. Where the low end keeps rising and the other categories only slightly improve.

I always wondered what would happen when the Fed went on the path of raising rates. For sure no one is going to want to sell. So wow.... we've finally reached full stasis. If there is no housing to cool down, I guess it's just pain for everyone else.

I think the numbers are going to look all kinds of wonkey soon. Everyone has almost built out their lots for new housing. And with the way it looks with existing sales. Just wow. I have no idea how this is going to work out.

No comments:

 
http://www.wikio.com