Wednesday, March 15, 2017

The perfect conditions are forming.

It seems like a lot of people think the Fed should not have raised today because the economy is still very weak. And I agree with that. However.....

Inflation is too much money chasing too few products or services. And that is going to trigger very soon. Believe me. Obama printed so much money it doubled the national debt. The largest stimulus in history. But most of that money never entered the stream because of regulation, and frankly every single thing he did financially scared the shit out everyone. Everyone scooped up that money and essentially buried it in their back yard.

I always said that one day - that money is going to see light. Trump is going to be less hard on the banks, so they will dig some out, and it's going to work down the line like that.

Next, more businesses had been dying that were being created. That will most assuredly reverse.

And then, while only a small sample - when the gardener who takes care of my rental tells me he can't find anyone to work for him - I start watching to see if we truly are at full employment. His last guy left to go work in a warehouse.

Finally. Housing. I read just this week that we are under building 700,000 units a year to keep up with population increases. That is a ton of units.  That's going to create inflation right there. I laugh every time I think about the "eco bubblers". They are going to be waiting a while for that to pop. I doubt I will ever see that again in my lifetime. You have to create such a stampede that even people who can afford their houses give them up anyway because of the media reports telling them their house would never be what it was worth in their lifetime. Even I thought about giving up my stuff, and I'm the hardest to push out of that market.

I think inflation could catch hold very easily because frankly - there is a lot of pent up demand primed. People never stop wanting to buy stuff. The only thing that stops them is their ability to buy.

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